For MLB futures bettors, focusing more attention on an individual team's performance rather than betting into some of the outright markets (AL/NL pennant, World Series champion) can yield the most bang for your buck. Of course, it's a nice feeling to nail a plus-money payout on an AL/NL pennant and World Series future, but as the odds imply, it's a much tougher feat to achieve.
MLB regular season win totals tend to be a more exploitable market that nets a positive ROI, so in this piece, we'll delve into BetMGM's current regular season win totals.
Below, we'll list all 30 teams' over/under projections and break down our five favorite bets to make before the regular season gets underway on March 30.
2023 MLB over/under win totals
| Team | Over | Under |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Over 75.5 (-110) | Under 75.5 (-110) |
| Atlanta Braves | Over 95.5 (-110) | Under 95.5 (-110) |
| Baltimore Orioles | Over 77.5 (-110) | Under 77.5 (-110) |
| Boston Red Sox | Over 77.5 (-110) | Under 77.5 (-110) |
| Chicago Cubs | Over 77.5 (-110) | Under 77.5 (-110) |
| Chicago White Sox | Over 83.5 (-105) | Under 83.5 (-115) |
| Cincinnati Reds | Over 65.5 (-115) | Under 65.5 (-105) |
| Cleveland Guardians | Over 87.5 (-110) | Under 87.5 (-110) |
| Colorado Rockies | Over 65.5 (-110) | Under 65.5 (-110) |
| Detroit Tigers | Over 69.5 (-110) | Under 69.5 (-110) |
| Houston Astros | Over 96.5 (-110) | Under 96.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Royals | Over 68.5 (-110) | Under 68.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Angels | Over 81.5 (-110) | Under 81.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Over 96.5 (-110) | Under 96.5 (-110) |
| Miami Marlins | Over 75.5 (-110) | Under 75.5 (-110) |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Over 85.5 (-110) | Under 85.5 (-110) |
| Minnesota Twins | Over 83.5 (-110) | Under 83.5 (-110) |
| New York Mets | Over 94.5 (-110) | Under 94.5 (-110) |
| New York Yankees | Over 94.5 (-110) | Under 94.5 (-110) |
| Oakland Athletics | Over 59.5 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-110) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Over 89.5 (-110) | Under 89.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Over 67.5 (-110) | Under 67.5 (-110) |
| San Diego Padres | Over 93.5 (-105) | Under 93.5 (-115) |
| San Francisco Giants | Over 80.5 (-110) | Under 80.5 (-110) |
| Seattle Mariners | Over 88.5 (-110) | Under 88.5 (-110) |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Over 89.5 (-110) | Under 89.5 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Over 88.5 (-110) | Under 88.5 (-110) |
| Texas Rangers | Over 82.5 (-110) | Under 82.5 (-110) |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Over 92.5 (-110) | Under 92.5 (-110) |
| Washington Nationals | Over 59.5 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-110) |
Best MLB regular season win total OVERS
Chicago Cubs OVER 77.5 (-110)
Despite not trying to field an all-that competitive team in the NL Central a season ago, the Cubs still ended the season with a 74-88 overall record. They found a way to exceed preseason expectations, narrowly hitting their OVER 73.5 wins.
The betting market's baked in four more wins for the Cubs this season, but that number still feels a tad low for a team who could realistically finish at .500 or better. The addition of Dansby Swanson gives the Cubs an elite everyday shortstop (100th percentile in outs above average) who can drive in 100-plus RBIs at the plate. He'll also give way for 2022 breakout infielder, Nico Hoerner (98th percentile in outs above average), to move to 2B, resulting in one of the better defensive SS-2B tandems in baseball.
Chicago's also got one of the more underrated pitching staffs and a rotation that was spearheaded by Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Drew Smyly after the All-Star break last season, sported the fifth-best team ERA and eighth-best opponent average (.233). With Kyle Hendricks (right shoulder capsular tear) likely to be back relatively soon and Jameson Taillon joining the staff, Chicago's starting rotation is formidable enough to help the Northsiders get to 78-plus wins.
Don't sleep on rookie Hayden Wesneski, who started six games towards the backend of 2022 and posted a 2.18 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in 33 innings of work. Wesneski has a chance to win the fifth spot in the rotation and could also be a longshot contender for Rookie of the Year. The bullpen is the biggest concern entering opening day, but if the Cubs are vying for a Wild Card spot come trade deadline time, expect them to make moves to better it.
🚨 immaculate inning 🚨
— MLB (@MLB) September 23, 2022
9 pitches, 3 Ks for Hayden Wesneski! pic.twitter.com/7fKtoY7Bkt
Chicago also bought low on Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Tucker Barnhart, as the offense has a chance to finish above the league average in wRC+ after ending '22 two percent below it. The Cubs could finish in second place in the NL Central behind the Cardinals and ahead of the Brewers, so getting to 78-plus wins is well within reach.
Minnesota Twins OVER 83.5 (-110)
We profiled the Twins as our best bet to win the AL Central, so you better believe we're betting the OVER on their 83.5 regular season win total. Minnesota's arguably got the most complete roster of any team in the AL Central but isn't priced accordingly.
Last season's trade deadline acquisitions of Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez will have a more profound effect on this year's bunch, while Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are still the MVP-caliber cornerstones of the roster. Jose Miranda won't have nearly as many hits as Luis Arraez, but he's a formidable replacement at first base.
It's a beautiful day for a walk-off #TwinsWin! 😎 pic.twitter.com/au7a5xQD7I
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 13, 2022
An offense that ended last season ranking ninth in wRC+ (107) has a chance to replicate that output. At the same time, their pitching staff, which posted the 19th-best team ERA (3.98) should see some better fortune after going out and acquiring Pablo Lopez from Miami.
Despite MLB instituting a balanced schedule, the Twins still get to play 13 games apiece against the Royals and Tigers. With some uncertainty surrounding the White Sox's season outlook and the Guardians potentially being slightly overvalued in the betting market, an 84-plus win season could very well come to fruition for Twins fans and OVER bettors.
Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 75.5 (-110)
Even in a top-heavy NL West, the Diamondbacks have a real chance to rack up 76-plus wins in 2023. Arizona was one of the bigger overachievers relative to their regular season win total last season, winning 74 games after entering the season projected to win 66 games.
Despite dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the Diamondbacks got a solid return for him, as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno have a chance to be in the team's opening day lineup. In addition, Arizona's got two legit starters atop their rotation, as Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly could both end the season with a sub-3.00 ERA on 180-plus innings of work.
Their young, speedy outfield tandem of Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas will be electrifying to watch, and they still have Christian Walker (36 homers and .484 xSLG in '22) in the middle of their order.
Those Corbin Carroll wheels 🏃♂️🏃♂️
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 21, 2022
The @Dbacks' No. 1 prospect scoots around the bases for big league triple No. 1! pic.twitter.com/7wW6kMDDTQ
They just inked reliever Andrew Chafin to a one-year deal and signed Miguel Castro this offseason, which should bolster a bullpen that posted the 25th-highest ERA (4.58) in '22. Buy into a successful '23 campaign for the Snakes.
Best MLB regular season win total UNDERS
Kansas City Royals UNDER 68.5 (-110)
Even though the betting market's already low on the Royals, there's a chance Kansas City loses 100-plus games in 2023, so we'll still take the UNDER on their 68.5-win total. However, expectations are slightly different, as Kansas City was pegged with a 75.5-win total last year, but the seven-win decrease is warranted.
On paper, the Royals are the weakest team in the AL Central, with a starting rotation full of backend guys. The offense doesn't have much pop, as a unit that ended last season ranking 24th in isolated power (.136 ISO) is likely to put up similar numbers.
The same can be said about their bullpen, as they ended the '22 campaign with the highest WHIP (1.48) and fourth-highest ERA (4.66). Aroldis Chapman's addition (88 ERA+ in '22) isn't going to move the needle, sorry Kansas City.
There are certainly some exciting pieces on the roster, though. Bobby Witt Jr. has a chance to drive in 100 RBIs -- and MJ Melendez and Salvador Perez could combine for 50-plus homers -- but relative to other clubs, they don't stack up.
Colorado Rockies UNDER 65.5 (-110)
Out in the NL West, Colorado's looking like a 95-plus loss team in 2023. Colorado essentially sat on their hands this offseason, and even though owner Dick Monfort said he thinks the Rockies "can play .500 ball", we're not buying his sentiment for a second.
While Colorado's offense was without their big free agent signing Kris Bryant for most of the season, the Rox still finished 14 percent below league average in wRC+ and 10th in the NL in runs scored. If Bryant can stay healthy this season, the offense should take a slight step forward, but there are still glaring holes on this roster.
Their top three starters, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela, all had down '22 seasons, while the rest of the rotation is nothing to get excited about. Outside of closer Daniel Bard, the bullpen doesn't have many reliable arms, so expect their late-inning leads to evaporate (when they even have them). Continue to sell and fade the '23 Rockies.
