Whenever the Hall of Fame or one of its committees neglects to induct anyone, representatives of the institution typically give the same line that fewer than 2 percent of all players in baseball history are Hall of Famers, and that it’s extraordinarily difficult to get into Cooperstown.
This line isn’t fiction. But does it mean that at any given time, just 2 percent of MLB players — or 15 players out of 750, until rosters expand in September — are destined for the Hall of Fame? Not so much.
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If history is any guide, there might be at least 50 future Hall of Famers active in the majors right now, at different stages of their careers. Some, such as Ichiro Suzuki, are just shy of retirement. Others, such as Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw, already seem like locks. Still others are first- or second-year players on few fans’ Cooperstown radars. It’d be ridiculous to try to spitball on some of the players in the latter group.
Who would have thought Sandy Koufax a Hall of Famer in 1960 when he was contemplating quitting baseball? Dennis Eckersley when he looked like a washed-up ace in 1986? Pedro Martinez in 1993 when he was getting traded for Delino DeShields?
But history tells us that some seemingly random player in the majors today will make Cooperstown years from now — as well as at least a few dozen other players.
At any given point, maybe 6 percent of all players who log at least one plate appearance in a season will eventually make the Hall of Fame, while something like 12-14 percent of all plate appearances will be taken by a future Hall of Famer. That’s based on data culled from Baseball-Reference, showing 10 seasons between 1880 and 1970:
- 1970: 849 total batters, 37 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 9.4 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1960: 575 total batters, 33 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 13.4 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1950: 530 total batters, 28 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 13 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1940: 514 total batters, 34 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 14.1 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1930: 493 total batters, 53 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 21.9 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1920: 495 total batters, 30 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 13.1 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1910: 508 total batters, 29 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 10.4 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1900: 188 total batters, 25 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 21.6 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1890: 510 total batters, 25 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 8.5 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers;
- 1880: 127 total batters, 12 future HOF players with at least one plate appearance, 10.4 percent of all PAs in MLB taken by future HOFers.
Before proceeding, a few quick notes: First, this leaves off at 1970 because it often takes decades to know who will and won’t be enshrined. Players who logged their last game 100 years ago have been known to be enshrined. Cooperstown doesn’t have a statue of limitations, after all, with every non-banned player in baseball history with at least 10 seasons still eligible.
Additionally, out of the years above, 1900 and 1930 can each be treated as outliers and, arguably, not even factored into consideration.
There were just eight teams in 1900, during a short stretch in baseball history when the National League was the sport’s only major circuit. In eras of contraction, great players will remain, while a lot of fringe players get pushed out. Thus, the percentage of Hall of Famers will be up in years like these, though the total number of Hall of Fame hitters from 1900 is fairly consistent with most of the other years on the list.
Many fans blame Cardinals second baseman Frankie Frisch for the gross over-representation of 1930s players in Cooperstown, due to his serving on the Veterans Committee in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s and advocating for a number of teammates to go in. Frisch wasn’t shy in the late ‘60s about telling news reporters that he considered his generation of baseball superior.
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There were other factors accounting for what happened with Cooperstown and ‘30s players.
For one thing, Hall of Fame players collectively hit .337 in 1930. Voters aren’t always great at factoring for the differences between eras, even if the entire majors hit .296 in 1930. Decades on, when Frisch and other committee members were getting to work and Hall of Famers were hitting around .280 collectively, it might have just seemed like there were more great hitters in 1930, like the sport had had some kind of offensive golden age that deserved special recognition.
Whatever the case, what Frisch and others did caused a backlash that’s still being felt at the Hall of Fame. There was talk in the ‘70s of permanently dissolving the Veterans Committee. It still seems unlikely that a group of veterans will ever be allowed to run so amuck again.
But players are still getting in. There were 1,030 players who had at least one plate appearance in 1990, with 28 of these players already in the Hall of Fame. There were 916 men who went to the plate in 1980, with 29 of these players already enshrined. More seem destined to follow, with numerous greats such as Dick Allen, Alan Trammell and Barry Bonds not enshrined.
Not counting 1900 or 1930, 5.5 percent of players with at least one plate appearance in the years listed above are in the Hall of Fame. More than 1,350 players logged a plate appearance in 2016, which would mean close to 75 Hall of Famers, which seems utterly bonkers. Even a conservative 4 percent induction rate would equal 54 players, which is more Hall of Famers than every year above.
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Who will these 54 future Hall of Famers be out of the current crop of major leaguers? Trying to guess is part of the fun with Cooperstown.
On the other hand, perhaps the Hall of Fame will decide when the time comes to start to inducting players from this era that it simply needs the same average number of players it’s been putting in each year, which would lead to a lower percentage of players being let in.
This would be unfortunate. It would likely lead to even more worthy players being left out.