Let's start with a couple of truths about baseball's most-discussed rivalry.
— The Red Sox didn't sign J.D. Martinez to finish with more regular-season wins than the Yankees. They have October goals.
— Even without J.D. Martinez, the Red Sox were capable of matching the Yankees in the regular season. Remember, they won 93 games in 2017 and brought back everyone of significance for 2018. And it's not unreasonable to assume David Price and Rick Porcello will be better in 2018 than they were in 2017, or that a full season from youngster Rafael Devers will help Boston win a few more games, or that the return of relievers Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg from injuries that wiped out 2017 will make an already-solid bullpen even better.
I know those two truths don't fit the AL East narrative in this slow offseason.
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The Yankees came within one game of making the World Series last year, then added Giancarlo Stanton and his 59 home runs to a lineup that was already one of the best in baseball. It's easy to pencil in the Bronx Bombers as not only the AL East favorites, but the World Series favorite.
So, the narrative tells us, the Red Sox had to sign Martinez — who hit 45 homers in 2017, between the Tigers and Diamondbacks — as their designated hitter to have any hope of competing with their bitter rivals in the AL East.
Nah. I don't buy it. The years of Boston worrying about besting New York are in the past. The Red Sox have won three World Series titles in the past 14 years and made the playoffs eight times in that span. At this point, beating the Yankees is a bonus, not a priority. In the current playoff setup, with a couple of wild-card spots, it's useful to win a division title but far from necessary.
The Red Sox are trying to win a World Series. Having Martinez in that lineup gives the Red Sox a better chance. I seriously doubt the Boston front office cares whether the team has to beat the Yankees along that October path to Game 1 of the World Series.
Boston's young outfield, with Mookie Betts — already a perennial MVP candidate — Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr., is one of the best in baseball. All three are outstanding defensive players, and all three are solid hitters, even though they're not 40-homer sluggers. Having Devers at third, Xander Bogaerts at shortstop and a healthy Dustin Pedroia at second, with Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez at first, gives Boston a stellar infield.
But that lineup lacked a thumper. The Red Sox hit just 168 homers in 2017, a total that ranked 27th of the 30 MLB teams and dead last in the AL.
Look back at Boston's playoff exit last fall. In Game 1 of the ALDS against Houston, the Astros popped four home runs — two in the first inning against Boston ace Chris Sale — and won the opener 8-2. Boston went homerless. In Game 2, the Astros hit two more home runs — Carlos Correa's two-out, two-run homer in the first inning off Drew Pomeranz set the tone — and Houston again won 8-2. Again, Boston failed to hit a home run.
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October pitching is better than July pitching. The best pitchers help the best teams get into the postseason, and manufacturing runs in October, against the best pitchers, is more difficult. In those first two ALDS games, the Astros had more home runs (six) than the Red Sox had total runs (four), and they took a commanding 2-0 series lead and wrapped up the best-of-five series in Game 4.
The ability to score runs quickly, with one swing of the bat, matters in October. Houston popped 27 homers in 18 playoff games last fall; the Dodgers hit 23 in 15 games.
That said, the truth is nobody knows exactly what Martinez will do if and when the Red Sox get into the postseason. One of the only consistencies October offers us is consistent surprises: Cody Ross turning into Babe Ruth, or Mark Lemke turning into Tony Gwynn, or a World Series game started by Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel finishing with a final score of 13-12. The opposing team might decide to walk Martinez every time he steps to the plate with a runner on base in October. He might hit every strike he sees into the stands. It's impossible to know what will happen.
The best the Red Sox can do is create a lineup with the balance and power that's capable of succeeding in October. With Martinez as their DH, they're closer to that goal.
