Marlins at Dodgers
Line: Dodgers -125 Total: 6.5 (UNDER -115)
The Marlins have been underdogs at Los Angeles the past three days and won all three, including Tuesday when getting +255 against Clayton Kershaw. Led by former Dodgers manager Don Mattingly, Miami (9-11, -0.7 units) will go for the four-game sweep tonight behind ace Jose Fernandez in what figures to be a low scoring game.
The Marlins have won all three of Fernandez's career starts against the Dodgers (12-10, -2.8), which came before his 2015 elbow surgery. Those wins also came against weaker Dodgers starters — no Kershaw or Zack Greinke. Tonight, Fernandez (1-2, 4.37 ERA) will get matched up against Japanese import Kenta Maeda (3-0, 0.36) who has allowed only one run over 25.1 innings in the first four starts of his major league career. He's been sensation and this should be one heck of a pitching match-up.
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Maeda's pitcher rating has rapidly increased since his first start and is a -125 favorite with a total set at 6.5, UNDER -115. Hitters couldn't touch him in spring and he's been even better during the regular season.
The Dodgers have scored only five runs between the last three home games against the Marlins. They scored 12 runs on Sunday at Coors Field. The Marlins haven't exactly been crushing the ball, either, averaging 2.7 runs per game. But they've won four straight, and the three wins in L.A. have to bring a big smile to Mattingly's face after leading the Dodgers to three straight N.L. West titles.
The Marlins definitely have the momentum, but let's go with the main play being UNDER 6.5 total runs and a secondary play on Maeda and the Dodgers.