Despite a less-than-ideal start to their 2023 campaign, the Phillies look to conclude their early-week series against the Yankees on a high note, sending ace Aaron Nola (0-0, 12.27 ERA, 4.13 xFIP) to the bump on Wednesday afternoon. Nola's in need of a bounce-back effort after failing to make it through the fourth inning on opening day against the Rangers, surrendering five earned runs on four hits in 3.2 innings of work.
Notching a win inside Yankee Stadium will be a tough task, even if Nola's able to limit the Yankees' offense with his first quality start of '23. He'll need ample run support with the Phillies doing battle against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.89 FIP), who's looking to build off his masterful 11-K, six-inning shutout against San Francisco last Thursday.
Can the Phillies get back on track or will Cole be lights-out for a second straight start? Below, we’ll break down Wednesday's Yankees-Phillies matinee, detailing our best way to approach wagering on this duel of aces.
Yankees-Phillies Odds, Best Bets for April 5
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (-155) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Yankees -140 | Phillies +120
- Total: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
With the Yankees at home and Cole on the mound, it's no surprise to see New York pegged as the short favorite on Wednesday afternoon. However, the Yankees' moneyline is quite shorter than it typically is with Cole on the mound. It's rare to see the Yankees priced at -140 or better with Cole at home, as the shortest the Yankees were priced last season with their ace on the mound was -150 when Cole faced off against the Astros in the ALCS on Oct. 22 (closed -150).
New York's typically priced as two-dollar favorites when Cole gets the ball at home, so this presents an opportunity to take advantage of favorable odds. Of course, the Yankees' short moneyline price is a result of a tough matchup against the reigning NL champions with their ace on the mound, but even still, it's hard to not bet on one of the game's best pitchers at a relatively short price tag.
Cole had his four-pitch arsenal working against the Giants, and while he didn't generate as many whiffs on his four-seam fastball as he'd like (26-percent whiff rate), he located his fastball well enough to keep the Giants off-balance. Giant hitters also whiffed a total of eight times on 10 swings against Coles' slider and changeup, a good sign of things to come given he's able to generate whiffs on his secondary pitches.
While it's still too early to put much stock into team's early-season offensive numbers, the Phillies entered Tuesday below league-average in isolated power (.161 ISO) and on-base percentage (.325 OBP). Things likely won't get easier against Cole, and if he's able to work six complete innings on Wednesday, he'll put the Yankees' bullpen in a solid spot to hold a lead during the late innings, resulting in a home win.
We're also expecting Nola to hold his own against Cole, as it took just one unfortunate fourth inning to derail his opening day outing against the Rangers. Nola's 4.13 xFIP relative to his 12.27 ERA tells the story there, so along with a Yankees win, we think Nola pitches well enough to result in this game landing UNDER the total.
Nola's ability to work deeper into Wednesday's contest should also lead to the Phillies utilizing their high-leverage relief arms, and although they sport the league's worst bullpen ERA (11.30 ERA), expect those numbers to come crashing down with better outings in the coming days.
