The I-55 rivalry makes its way to West Ham's London Stadium on Saturday (1:10 p.m. ET, FOX) as the Cubs and Cardinals meet in MLB's third-ever game played on European soil. The two-game weekend series between these rivals marks MLB's second rendition of the London Series after the Yankees and Red Sox clashed at London Stadium in 2019.
If the 2019 London Series results are any indication of what might transpire this go 'round, fans in Great Britain are in for a treat, as 50 combined runs came across home plate over the two-day series. Plenty of runs are expected in Game 1 on Saturday, with the current total set at 14, an even higher total than you'll see for games played at the MLB's most hitter-friendly venue, Coors Field.
Although this weekend's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Cubs and Cardinals players, it's still a "business trip," as St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado said on the set of MLB Central set today. For two clubs competing in a wide-open NL Central, getting the job done and building momentum ahead of the second half is crucial.
While the Redbirds are still in the cellar of the NL Central, a nine-game hole in late June is beyond manageable for a team as talented as Oli Marmol's bunch. In the other dugout, the Cubs find themselves only 3.5 games behind the scorching Reds and enter Saturday's contest as winners in 10 of their past 12 games.
For bettors looking for a wager to make Saturday's contest a bit more intriguing, we'll offer our best bet for Game 1 of the 2023 London Series.
Cubs vs. Cardinals London Series odds for Saturday
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+110) | Cardinals +1.5 (-130)
- Total: OVER 14 (-105) | UNDER 14 (-115)
- Moneyline: Cubs -130 | Cardinals +110
With Chicago sporting the better overall record and sending lefty Justin Steele (7-2, 2.71 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) to the bump opposite Adam Wainwright (3-1, 5.56 ERA, 5.46 xFIP) for St. Louis, the Cubs currently sit as short -130 favorites on the moneyline. Despite Chicago having the superior starter on the mound, we're enticed by the Cardinals' moneyline at +110 odds in a game that could very well be decided by both bullpens in the later innings.
Steele will make just his second start in June after landing on the injured list at the start of the month due to a mild forearm strain. He's been as consistent as it comes this season, but current Cardinals hitters have had the upper hand against him. In 52 plate appearances, Redbird hitters own a respectable .383 xwOBA to go along with a .326 batting average against Steele.
Couple that with St. Louis ranking ninth in weighted runs created plus (115) and 10th in isolated power (.188) over the past two weeks, and we think the Cardinals lineup generates ample run support for Wainwright in extremely friendly hitting conditions. Wainwright's been the recipient of consistent run support when he's toed the rubber this season, shown by his 3-1 record despite a 5.46 xFIP.
Of course, there's an element of randomness in his win-loss record, but the bigger picture here is that St. Louis' offense is starting to produce at a rate we expected entering the season. If Wainwright's given some cushion to work with, he can potentially work into the sixth inning. He's still been hit relatively hard against Cubs hitters in the past, as Chicago has compiled a .495 xSLG over 149 plate appearances against Wainwright.
We're not omitting Chicago's offensive surge, either. The Cubs aren't far behind the Cardinals in wRC+ and ISO over the past two weeks, posting a solid 108 wRC+ and .157 ISO to help them make a push in the division. Since initially filling in for the injured Cody Bellinger in center, Mike Tauchman's been a revelation for the Northsiders, as the Palatine, Illinois native is finding a groove after spending last season with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. Tauchman's hitting .295 over the past 15 days, the second-best average on the team behind stud second baseman Nico Hoerner (.314).
Since both offenses figure to manufacture their fair share of runs, this game projects as an essential coin-flip. We trust the backend of St. Louis' bullpen a bit more at the moment, as Jordan Hicks has found his groove closing out games in place of the injured Ryan Helsley. With that in mind, we'll side with the underdog Cardinals at +110, taking advantage of its implied win probability of 47.62 percent in a 50-50 game.
Best Bet: Cardinals moneyline (+110)
