MLB awards update: Who are the front-runners for the MVP, Cy Young and rookie nods?

Ryan Fagan

MLB awards update: Who are the front-runners for the MVP, Cy Young and rookie nods? image

At this time last year, Jake Arrieta had an ERA of 3.07 and we really had no idea the brilliance he was going to display the rest of the season, which ended with the Cubs right-hander posting a 1.77 ERA and winning the NL Cy Young award. Carlos Correa, who wound up winning the AL rookie of the year award, had only been in the majors for a couple weeks by late June. 

On the other hand, eventual NL MVP Bryce Harper was already hitting in the .340 range and AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel was cruising along with an ERA a shade above 2.00. 

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Sometimes, it’s hard to know who’s going to win the year-end awards in June. Sometimes, you have a pretty good idea what guys are the favorites. With that second thought in mind, let’s take a look at the current front-runners in each of the primary three categories for each league. 

NL MVP

The favorite: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Poor Nolan Arenado. Colorado’s third baseman is having a phenomenal season, one worthy of MVP recognition, but Kershaw is doing just silly things, even by Kershaw standards. Kershaw won the NL MVP in 2014, as you remember. Let’s compare those numbers to what he’s doing this year. 

Kershaw, 2014: 1.77 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 0.857 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 10.8 K/9, 7.71 K/BB 
Kershaw, 2016: 1.57 ERA, 1.58 FIP, 0.670 WHIP, 5.5 H/9, 11.0 K/9, 20.14 K/BB

Yeah. Just amazing.

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The contenders: Nolan Arenado, Rockies (.296, 21 homers, 61 RBIs, .961 OPS), Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (.296, 11 homers, .975 OPS), Noah Syndergaard, Mets (2.08 ERA, 1.85 FIP, 10.9 K/9), Marcel Ozuna, Marlins (.322, 16 homers, .951 OPS), Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (.296, .14 homers, .945 OPS), Jose Fernandez, Marlins (2.36 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 12.8 K/9), Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (.277, 17 homers, .960 OPS) 

NL Cy Young

The favorite: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

No surprise here. He’s well ahead of the field, even though the field has some pretty impressive performances (look at the numbers below). That’s how good Kershaw has been in 2016.

The contenders: Noah Syndergaard, Mets (2.08 ERA, 1.85 FIP, 10.9 K/9), Jose Fernandez, Marlins (2.36 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 12.8 K/9), Jake Arrieta, Cubs (1.74 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 9.8 K/9), Madison Bumgarner, Giants (1.85 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 10.2 K/9), Johnny Cueto, Giants (2.06 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 7.9 K/9), Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2.90 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 11.4 K/9)

NL rookie of the year

The favorite: Corey Seager, Dodgers

Seager has been so very huge for a Dodgers team that’s often struggled offensively — he leads the club in homers (16), RBIs (37), average (.289), OPS (.867), runs (47) and total bases (149). That’s not too shabby for a shortstop who just turned 22 in April, eh? 

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The contenders: Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals (.310, 9 homers, .858 OPS), Steven Matz, Mets (2.74 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 12 starts, 9.03 K/9), Trevor Story, Rockies (18 homers, .869 OPS), Kenta Maeda, Dodgers (2.64 ERA, 14 starts, 8.7 K/9), Seung-hwan Oh, Cardinals (1.70 ERA, 36 appearances, 12.2 K/9), Trayce Thompson, Dodgers (11 homers, .805 OPS), Ryan Butcher, Padres (1.65 ERA, 35 appearances, 13.0 K/9)

AL MVP

The favorite: Jose Altuve, Astros

The race for the AL MVP is, by far, the most compelling race at this point of the season. We have Altuve up top (here’s an in-depth look at why he’s been better this year), but you could make an incredibly strong case for any of the first four players listed among the contenders. They’re all essentially even in WAR numbers, both by the Baseball-Reference formula and the FanGraphs formula. Altuve, who will be the AL starter at second base in the All-Star Game, has a .343/.425/.551 slash line, with 12 homers, 18 stolen bases and 21 doubles. 

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The contenders: Manny Machado, Orioles (.317, 17 homers, .985 OPS), Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (.351, 9 homers, 10 stolen bases), Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays (.279, 17 homers, .402 wOBA), Mike Trout, Angels (.300, 14 homers, 10 stolen bases, .930 OPS), David Ortiz, Red Sox (.340, 18 homers, 60 RBIs, 1.128 OPS), Francisco Lindor, Indians (.307, 8 homers, 12 stolen bases), Robinson Cano (.296, 19 homers)

AL Cy Young

The favorite: Chris Sale, White Sox

Maybe this is the year Sale finally gets his Cy Young; he’s finished in the top six in the voting each of the past four seasons. The thing is, this hasn’t been Sale’s best season, as far as the rate numbers are concerned. His strikeouts are down — his K/9 rate of 8.7 is well below his career average heading into this season (10.3) — and his 3.28 FIP is actually the “worst” of his career. But that’s kind of the point of how great Sale has been in his career. He’s putting together a normal season by his standards, and it still has him near the top of the Cy Young conversation. 

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The contenders: Danny Salazar, Indians (2.23 ERA, 10.7 K.9), Corey Kluber, Indians (2.83 FIP, 9.03 K/9), Steven Wright, Red Sox (2.01 ERA, 7.3 K/9), Marco Estrada, Blue Jays (2.70 ERA, 8.1 K/9), Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (2.91 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, 3.36 FIP)

AL rookie of the year

The favorite: Nomar Mazara, Rangers

Mazara, the lefty with the sweet swing, been a huge part of Texas’ run to the top of the AL. He’s popped 11 homers to go with his .288 average, 30 RBIs and 30 runs scored, all while batting primarily No. 2 or No. 3 in the Texas lineup. 

The contenders: Michael Fullmer, Tigers (2.40 ERA, 11 starts, 8.5 K/9), Christopher Devenski, Astros (2.37 ERA, 49 1/3 innings, 7.8 K/9), Whit Merrifield, Royals (.320, 13 RBIs), Dae-Ho Lee, Mariners (.282, 10 homers), Matt Bush, Rangers (1.02 ERA, 19 appearances, 9.7 K/9), Tyler Naquin, Indians (.318, 4 homers, .927 OPS)

Ryan Fagan

Ryan Fagan Photo

Ryan Fagan, the national MLB writer for The Sporting News, has been a Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 2016. He also dabbles in college hoops and other sports. And, yeah, he has way too many junk wax baseball cards.