MLB All-Star Game 2015: Who should win the ballots' closest battles?

Cory Collins

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MLB All-Star Game 2015: Who should win the ballots' closest battles? image

Fan voting, like spitting into a headwind or jumping from rooftops, usually produces predictably unpredictable results. A seemingly harmless act done for fun comes back to hit us in the face. People get hurt. And the Kansas City voting contingent inspires American League players everywhere to put on their headphones, blast some Lorde and lament, "We'll never be Royals."

But contained in this madness to the method of MLB All-Star Game voting is an exercise usually reserved for political pundits: breaking down the ballots. We last got an update of the vote totals on June 29:

MORE: Watch the starting lineups' live reveal | The worst All-Star starters for last 40 years

MLB will reveal the All-Star Game's starting lineups on Sunday. With some races too close to call, here's who deserves to take the field first at Great American Ballpark. All stats come courtesy of the magical land we call Baseball-Reference.com. 

AL DH: Nelson Cruz vs. Kendrys Morales

The Stats
Cruz (SEA): .304/.366/.555 | 21 HR | 50 RBI | 162 OPS+ | 3.1 oWAR
Morales (KC): .282/.343/.460 | 10 HR | 52 RBI | 120 OPS+ | 1.1 oWAR

Best candidate: Cruz, obviously. Aside from the race for the coveted DH-RBI title, Cruz leads Morales in the major offensive categories. You know who actually poses a better statistical case against Cruz? Everyone's favorite 14-time All-Star: Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod has a 2.2 oWAR thanks to a slash line of .284/.385/.504 and an OPS+ of 146 buoyed by his 15 home runs — all from a guy that turns 40 in three weeks and served a season-long suspension last year. Not bad. But not Cruz-good, either.

AL 3B: Josh Donaldson vs. Mike Moustakas

The Stats
Donaldson (TOR): .295/.352/.529 | 19 HR | 54 RBI | 143 OPS+ | 4.3 WAR
Moustakas (KC): .303/.360/.439 | 7 HR | 31 RBI | 120 OPS+ | 2.8 WAR

Best candidate: Donaldson. Though Moustakas takes two of the three slash line categories, Donaldson boasts more power and value. He ranks high among AL hot corner candidates in home runs (2nd), doubles (1st) and RBIs (t-1st).

AL 2B: Jose Altuve vs. Omar Infante

The Stats
Altuve (HOU): .302/.347/.422 | 23 stolen bases | 115 OPS+ | 2.3 WAR
Infante (KC): .233/.239/.309 | 1 stolen base | 51 OPS+ | 0.4 WAR

Best candidate: Altuve, unless you pick your All-Star starters by closest proximity to names of cool characters from The Wire. Considering that Infante would likely rank as the worst All-Star second baseman of all time, this is a time when the 5-5 (wearing heels) Altuve has no trouble standing above the crowd.

AL OF, final slot: Yoenis Cespedes vs. Alex Gordon

The Stats
Cespedes (DET): .294/.322/.481 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 120 OPS+ | 2.8 WAR
Gordon (KC): .260/.377/.419 | 9 HR | 32 RBI | 121 OPS+ | 1.9 WAR

Best candidate: Cespedes, but really, flip a coin. Despite Gordon's disadvantage in batting average, Cespedes' inability to draw a walk negates the value of an otherwise resurgent year at the dish. Defensive statistics lean in Cespedes' favor this season, but considering the sample size and subjectivity involved, only tip the scales so much. 

NL 3B: Matt Carpenter vs. Todd Frazier

The Stats
Carpenter (STL): .278/.379/.451 | 8 HR | 39 RBI | 128 OPS+ | 1.4 WAR
Frazier (CIN): .289/.348/.610 | 25 HR | 54 RBI | 158 OPS+ | 3.8 WAR

Best candidate: Frazier. We're not saying the Cardinals hacked into the All-Star voting database and gave their third baseman a boost, but the voting certainly doesn't match the stats. Frazier's rankings among NL third basemen: first in runs scored, first in hits, first in doubles, first in home runs, second in RBIs and first in on-base plus slugging percentage. If that's not convincing enough, he also profiles as a better defensive third baseman than Carpenter, who has a negative defensive WAR.

NL OF: A flippin' free-for-all!

Good luck fielding a stellar outfield this summer, National League. Giancarlo Stanton currently ranks No. 2 in All-Star voting, and can't play due to a fractured wrist. Locked in a tight race for third: Matt Holliday and Nori Aoki, who also can't play in the summer classic due to a quad injury and a fractured leg, respectively. Basically, the DL's starting outfield is looking stronger than the NL's.

The task of filling that massive hole in the outfield will fall to NL manager Bruce Bochy. A deserving candidate will likely slide in at No. 2: Andrew McCutchen. The face of the Pirates franchise boasts a solid slash line (.297/.390/.491) and pop that well outpaces the league standard at his position (a 145 OPS+). But after that, the next names on the ballot gets ridiculous, with at least 10 candidates within arm's length of a race too close to call. And while Bochy isn't beholden to the fan vote, going far beyond it usually doesn't engender good will.

That list includes some substandard All-Star candidates. The Dodgers' Joc Pederson has a bright future, but also boasts a .236 batting average and 97 strikeouts this season. Jay Bruce is hitting a similarly paltry .237, and despite power once being his calling card, just 12 home runs — less than half of Reds teammate Todd Frazier's total. Fellow Red Billy Hamilton leads baseball in stolen bases (40!), but also has an impossibly low on-base percentage (.289) and slugging percentage (.338) for an All-Star speedster.

At least it seems impossible, until you consider Cardinals outfielder Jon Jay, who is very much in this race. Jay has zero stolen bases, and an even worse slash line than Hamilton: .223/.311/.265. That offensive output makes Yasiel Puig look like a great candidate (.287/.378/.457!), and he's only played 35 games.

Best candidates: Lurking in the litany of outfielders competing for the last NL slots, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Starling Marte at least have respectable outputs on their resume. Heyward flashes good defense for the Cardinals alongside a solid, albeit uninspiring, .280/.331/.440 slash line. Upton has played in every game for the Padres since coming over from the Braves and boasts a 2.8 WAR. And Marte is on pace to flirt with a 30/30 season, having already compiled 13 home runs and 15 stolen bases this season.

But, alas, let us not allow reason to run amok. This is All-Star Game voting, a practice far from perfect or sensical. The results tonight should only surprise us if they don't surprise us. Baseball already spit into the wind with a wide-open vote. 

We may as well accept the consequences with a wide-open mouth.

Cory Collins