Next to 3,000 hits: Why it could be a long time until another MLB star follows Miguel Cabrera

The 3,000 hit club is one of the most exclusive in professional sports. There are only 33 members to date, with Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera joining the club on Saturday.

Cabrera grounded a base hit through the right side of the infield against Colorado's Antonio Senzatela for a single in the first inning of Detroit's game against the Rockies.

While few have joined the club, new members have joined about once every four years dating back to the 1970s. Since 1970, the most years between batters to reach 3,000 hits is seven, between Rod Carew hitting the mark on Aug. 4, 1985, and Robin Yount reaching it on Sept. 9, 1992. There has been one at least every four years in the 2000s.

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But Cabrera could be the last new member for quite a while. The gap in time might be longer than most in history.

Keys to reaching 3,000 hits

If you're looking for trends to identify on players to reach 3,000 hits, there's a few that are critical. The first is age when the player debuted.

Including Cabrera, 25 of the 33 players debuted as young as 21 years old. Ichiro Suzuki was the oldest player to debut and reach 3,000 hits when he broke into the majors at 27 years old, but he had 10 seasons with at least 200 hits and reached the milestone at 42 years old. Wade Boggs is the second-oldest to debut when he began his career at 24, but he had seven 200-hit seasons and played in at least 120 games in all but four of his 18 years in the majors.

It's not enough just to start young, however. The batter needs to be consistent. These 33 hitters averaged 3.3 200-hit seasons in their careers. Among active hitters, only one has at least three 200-hit seasons: Jose Altuve, with four.

But Albert Pujols and Cabrera, the only active members of the club, only have one apiece, so it's not a golden rule. What they have had instead is consistency. Their 162-game average for hits is 187 for Cabrera and 180 for Pujols, which still rank near the bottom of the 3000-hit club. The lowest average hits per 162 games came from Rickey Henderson, who averaged 160.6 hits per full season.

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Entering the 2022 season, there were 85 total players averaging at least 160 hits per 162 games, but that was without any minimum plate appearances. Oneil Cruz is averaging 243 hits per 162 games since he has three hits in two games. But only 30 players with at least 1,000 games are averaging 160 hits per 162 games and are still playing in 2022.

However, the average for members of the 3,000 hit club is 189.1 hits per 162 games. If a player were only to average 160 hits per 162 games, it would take 18.75 seasons — full 162-game seasons — to reach the 3,000 mark. There is only active player who averages 189 hits or more per season: Altuve at 200.3.

Then, there's longevity. Only 12 players in the 3,000 hit club played in fewer than 20 seasons. Of those, only the still-active Cabrera (39), Carew, Yount and Roberto Clemente stopped playing before reaching their 40s. While it is impossible to project which active players in baseball will play until their 40s, it is fair to say that the list will not be long.

Next MLB player to 3,000 hits

Among active players, there are only three other batters with at least 2,000 hits. They are Robinson Cano (2,629), Yadier Molina (2,115) and Joey Votto (2,033).

The problem? Cano and Molina are both 39, and Votto is 38. Cano is only 321 hits away, but since the start of the 2018 season, he has only 253 hits. Molina plans to retire after the 2022 season. Votto has not indicated when retirement might be coming, but 1,000 hits would take him a long time.

Here's the rest of the list of batters that are at least halfway to 3,000 hits:

The list is entirely comprised of players on the wrong side of 30, and all but four of them are older than 33 years old.

A crucial part of reaching the 3,000-hit club is starting a career early and racking up the hits while they're still young. Of the players on this list, only two players reached 1,500 hits before their age-30 season, per Baseball Reference: Elvis Andrus and Jose Altuve.

Over the first 11 years of his career, Andrus had at least 150 hits in all but two of those seasons. But over the past two seasons, he has just 141. He enters Thursday needing 1,126 hits in order to reach 3,000. If he were to average 150 hits per season, it would take him just over seven-and-a-half years to hit the milestone. By that point, he would likely be 41.

Then there's Altuve. The longtime Astros second baseman feels like the next most likely player to reach 3,000 hits given his profile. He's still only 32, reached 1,568 hits by age 29 and is known as a consistent contact hitter. From 2014 to 2017, he had four straight 200-hit seasons.

Then it's just a matter of games played. He played in 146 games a season ago, but previously hadn't played in at least 140 games since 2017, and as of Thursday, he is on the injured list again. It should be noted, of course, that the 2020 season consisted of only 60 games, an impediment for all players trying to reach 3,000. Altuve had 167 hits in 2021, but has had just two seasons with at least 160 hits since 2017. If he were to average 160 hits per season, it would take him 7.6 years to reach 3,000 hits, putting him at 39 years old.

The next most intriguing name is Freddie Freeman. The new Dodgers first baseman has played in fewer than 147 games only three times in his 13-year career: his rookie season (20 games), 2015 (118 games) and 2020 (60 games). Though he has never hit the 200-hit milestone, he has averaged 177 hits per 162 games and has not seemed to slow down at the plate as he's been in the top 10 in MVP voting in each of the past four years.

Combine his health with playing the less taxing position of first base — and possibly DH down the road — and he also seems like a possible candidate to reach 3,000 hits. At his pace of 177 hits per 162 games, it would take 7.2 years to reach 3,000 hits, at which point, he would be 38 or 39.

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Unless Cano reaches 3,000, Altuve or Freeman seem like the most likely players to reach the milestone next. But for both, it would likely to take at least seven years.

As for further down the road, here's a look at the active hits leaders among players 30 years old or younger.

There is certainly a situation where, with good health and a long career, some of these players could reach 3,000.

Then, there is that wave of young talent. At 23, Juan Soto has 498 hits and draws Ted Williams comparisons. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is also 23, is often compared to Cabrera and already has 385 hits. Wander Franco got off to a hot start in his young career and just turned 21 to start the season. But of course, they are all a long way down the road.

Given how long it takes for players to reach 3,000 hits, it should help put into context the achievement Cabrera is about to reach. Since it might not happen again for a long time, it's worth taking time to celebrate it.

MLB players with 3,000 hits