The Blue Jays could have blown it all up. They had just lost 86 games. The Jose Bautista era had come to an unceremonious end. Josh Donaldson was staring his contract year in the face.
It would have been easy to take an approach similar to that of many teams and ship good players out for prospects and salary relief. It wouldn’t be accurate to say that the Jays have necessarily done the opposite, but Toronto is poised to be competitive this season. That’s more than a lot of teams can claim. And if things go just right, the Jays may have a shot at a Wild-Card spot.
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Getting to the playoffs will be an uphill battle for the Blue Jays, but it’s one they’re capable of winning. It helps that the effort starts with a genuine star in Donaldson. When he’s been healthy, Donaldson has outhit almost everyone else in baseball. He’s a fearsome force any team would love to have anchoring a lineup. The rest of the offense — Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Devon Travis — isn’t exactly the sort of group that’ll keep pitchers up at night, but they have the chance to do enough behind Donaldson to keep the team competitive.
It also helps that the Jays have a more than adequate rotation. There may not be a true ace among the group, but Toronto features five pitchers a good team wouldn’t hate to send to the mound, which is more than many can boast. Marcus Stroman is coming off his strongest season, and Aaron Sanchez is just a year removed from leading the American League in ERA. J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia are all capable of providing useful innings.
This isn’t a team without flaws. There isn’t much surefire depth in the bullpen behind the superb Roberto Osuna and 2017 sort-of-breakout Ryan Tepera, but there’s a bit of upside and it’s an area that can be upgraded through an in-season trade. The Jays didn’t bring in a superstar player, perhaps in part because of the uncertainty over whether Donaldson re-signs with the team this coming offseason.
Even with their deficiencies, the Jays are a solid team. Many of their acquisitions this winter aren’t impact players. That doesn’t mean they aren’t good players, though. They’re useful pieces who raise the talent floor of the roster and give manager John Gibbons more options when filling out his lineup card and deploying his bench. There’s value in having quality players coming off the bench instead of guys being shuttled up and down between Triple-A and the majors, especially because the Jays have players, like Troy Tulowitzki, who have a habit of spending time on the DL.
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This is a fairly rudimentary concept when it comes to team-building, and yet it’s one that few teams in the same relative situation as the Jays utilized this winter. Some seemingly conventional wisdom within the industry may have dictated that Toronto should have traded away Donaldson and Smoak and reset for a year until the team’s tantalizing top prospects were ready to ascend and turn a new leaf for the team. They’ve instead opted to keep the team respectable and competitive. Given the number of teams who have taken the first route, that may be enough to pile up wins and not be completely bullied by the powerhouse Yankees and Red Sox.
A pair of those prospects may be able to give the team even more firepower this year, too. Anthony Alford, a speedy outfielder with tools to spare, has already surfaced in the big leagues.
And you’ve probably heard about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. by now. Vladito hasn’t played a single game in Double-A yet. He’s such a good hitter that he may force his way onto the roster at some point this year anyway. Just a few weeks removed from his 19th birthday, Guerrero may be just as talented as his Hall of Fame father with the stick. It shouldn’t be a shock if he manages to supplant Kendrys Morales as the team’s primary DH down the stretch. Rafael Devers made this kind of jump last year for the Red Sox. Guerrero is more than capable of doing it too.
All the pieces are in play for Toronto to be a surprise this year. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections peg the Jays for just a three-win improvement. They should be able to outperform that number. The AL East looks like a harrowing place given the presence of the Yankees and Red Sox, but the Orioles and Rays also look fairly non-competitive. If the Jays can feast on those two teams and play well outside of the division, they could be a factor.
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But a Wild-Card berth could still be a challenge. In addition to whichever of the Yankees and Red Sox don’t claim first place, the Twins, Mariners and Angels are going to be vying for that second spot. But given the number of teams focusing on keeping their payrolls tiny and getting to the top of the draft, there aren’t as many probable challengers as there have been in the past. That could work in Toronto’s favor.
Even if the Jays don’t make it to the playoffs, they’re set up to matter. They’re set up to be a team that tries. That’s a meaningful factor for a team that’s led the American League in attendance two years in a row.
The Blue Jays have decided to compete this year, and that may be enough to be in the playoff hunt late into the season.