Every year, the six-month-long baseball season produces the type of surprises that makes those of us in the baseball-writing industry wonder why we bother with preseason predictions. For example, it was easy to see how free-agent slugger J.D. Martinez was going to be the perfect fit in Boston’s lineup, but I feel confident nobody knew which player would lead the Dodgers — the team that made it all the way to Game 7 of last year’s World Series — in home runs this year. More on that guy in a minute.
With the regular season winding down, it’s time make position-by-position selections of the best surprises in the bigs.
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Here are the loose guidelines: We tried to stick with “out of nowhere” guys when possible. We stayed away from players who were already good but became great in 2018 — think Patrick Corbin, Blake Snell or Kyle Freeland — and we also stayed away from highly touted rookies who were expected to be good this year but have exceeded expectations — Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres are prime examples.
Also, we skipped catcher because, quite honestly, there weren’t any surprises at the position that jumped out at us like the players we highlighted at other positions. J.T. Realmuto and Yadier Molina and Wilson Ramos and others have been very good this year, but we all expected them to be good, y’know?
Make sense? Cool. Let’s dive in.
1B Max Muncy, Dodgers
Numbers of note: 33 homers, .961 OPS, 158 wRC+, 3.9 bWAR
Why he’s here: At this point in the season, Muncy’s incredible baseball story might have faded from the headlines, but rest assured it will be revived if and when the Dodgers reach October.
Muncy failed pretty consistently at the major-league level for the A’s in both 2015 and 2016. Each year, Muncy had more than 100 plate appearances and was a below-average player by just about every statistic (WAR, OPS+, wRC+ and batting average, to name a few). The A’s released him in the spring of 2017; the Dodgers signed him a few weeks later and he spent the entire season with Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Then 2018 arrived, and everything changed.
Muncy hit .313 with a couple home runs in nine games for Oklahoma City and was given the call to the bigs in mid-April when a rash of injuries hit the Dodgers. He singled in his first at-bat back in the majors, as a pinch-hitter. He started the next day, walking in his first trip to the plate and homering in his next. Muncy hit five homers in May, 10 in June, seven in July and six more in August. Muncy, who hit a total of 36 homers over three seasons (2015-17) split between the majors and Triple-A, participated in the Home Run Derby during the All-Star break. He has 33 homers — 10 more than any other Dodger — in 449 plate appearances, tied for fourth in the NL. His 158 wRC+ is fifth in the majors for players with at least 400 PAs, behind only Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Alex Bregman. Yeah. Crazy.
2B Joey Wendle, Rays
Numbers of note: 4.0 bWAR, .302 average, 118 OPS+
Why he’s here: Want to know why the Rays, a team tabbed for the bottom of the AL East (and the AL, in some cases) are 19 games over .500 in what was supposed to be a lost season? Start with the contributions of unsung guys like Joey Wendle, the 28-year-old who had a total of 36 big-league games under his belt heading into the season.
Like Muncy, Wendle had a couple of shots with the A’s but couldn’t find regular playing time; Wendle was traded to the Rays for a player to be named later last offseason.
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Wendle wasted no time making sure he’d be in Tampa Bay’s lineup on a regular basis, batting .329 in the first month of the season. He’s started 72 games at second base, 13 at third base, 13 in left field and four at shortstop. That versatility ensured his playing time, and he’s gotten better as the season has progressed; Wendle hit .360 in July, .330 in August and is batting .345 in September. His 4.0 bWAR is second on the team, behind only AL Cy Young candidate Blake Snell’s 6.7.
SS Adalberto Mondesi, Royals
Numbers of note: .288 average, 10 homers, 26 stolen bases
Why he’s here: The son of former All-Star Raul Mondesi, he became the first player in baseball history to make his big-league debut in the World Series when he received one pinch-hitting opportunity in the 2015 World Series. He was a highly touted prospect, but his 2016 and 2017 seasons were pretty disastrous at the big-league level. Mondesi had 209 combined plate appearances those years, and he batted just .181 with an unbelievably bad 33 OPS+. He had success in Triple-A Omaha last year — 13 homers, 21 stolen bases and an .879 OPS in 85 games — and was called up to the majors again in June 2018.
He was better in his first couple months back with the Royals, but he’s spent the past month or so showing why the Royals were so excited about Mondesi as a prospect. In his past 20 games, Mondesi’s batting .361 with a 1.048 OPS, six homers, 15 RBIs, 10 stolen bases and it’s probably not a coincidence that the Royals — one of the worst teams in the majors all season — are 12-8 in that stretch.
3B Miguel Andujar, Yankees
Numbers of note: .298 average, 25 homers, 41 doubles, 125 OPS+
Why he’s here: The Yankees were excited about the potential for a rookie infielder to make a big impact in the majors this year, but enough about Gleyber Torres.
Most of the talk surrounding Miguel Andujar in the offseason involved trade rumors, not whether he would be a leader in the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year award race. But when injury issues opened a spot at third base early in the season, Andujar seized control of the third-base job, to the point where Brandon Drury — the spring starter — has been traded away.
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His defense is still a work in progress, but his bat has assured his spot in the lineup. In 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Andujar had 54 extra-base hits (36 doubles, 16 homers, two triples), so to see him produce 68 (41 doubles, 25 homers, two triples) in the majors this year has been a very pleasant surprise for the Yankees and their fans.
OF Brandon Nimmo, Mets
Numbers of note: 4.2 bWAR, 17 homers, 151 OPS+, .398 on-base percentage
Why he’s here: Nimmo wasn’t even supposed to be a starter in the Mets outfield this year. He seemed like an ideal fourth/fifth outfielder but as is often the case for pleasant surprises, injuries created an opportunity. Nimmo has arguably been the most consistent player in the Mets’ lineup this year, with injuries and inconsistencies (or being traded away) plaguing pretty much every other position player on the roster.
The power? That’s the biggest surprise. Nimmo’s career high in the home-run department heading into this season was 12, with 11 of those in Triple-A in 2016. You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who expected Nimmo to lead the Mets in extra-base hits this year, but that’s what has happened. He’s up to 51 — those 17 homers to go with 26 doubles and eight triples.
OF Juan Soto, Nationals
Numbers of note: .413 on-base percentage, 20 homers, .931 OPS, 148 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR
Why he’s here: As mentioned earlier, we left highly rated prospects off this list if they were expected to make an impact this year, even if they’ve exceeded those expectations (hi Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres!). And, yes, Soto was a top prospect in the Nationals system. So why is he here? To start with, he’s still only 19 years old. But mostly, it’s because he started the season in Single-A (where he hit .373 in 16 games), then was moved up to high-A (where he hit .371 in 15 games) and then to Double-A (where he hit .323 in eight games). When the Nationals needed a boost at the big-league level and couldn’t deny what their teenage phenom was doing in the minors, they gave him an opportunity.
Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s greatly exceeded expectations, but we sure as hell shouldn’t take it for granted.
OF Mallex Smith, Rays
Numbers of note: .370 on-base percentage, 33 stolen bases. 3.4 bWAR, 118 OPS+
Why he’s here: An argument could be made for Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis to claim this third outfield spot, but after All-Star starts to the season, both veterans have cooled off significantly. Kemp’s batting .203 since July 24 and Markakis has a .584 OPS in his past 37 games. Instead, we’ll go with another youngster who made a big jump this season.
In his first two years in the majors, Mallex Smith had a .323 on-base percentage and 85 OPS+ in 153 games split pretty evenly between the Braves and Rays. Those are OK numbers, but fourth outfielder stuff at best. In 2018, his Age 25 season, he’s proven that he’s a legit leadoff guy. You see his overall numbers above, and since moving into the top spot in the order in early August, Smith is batting .325 with a .388 on-base percentage. The Rays are 22-8 in his 30 starts.
SP Miles Mikolas, Cardinals
Numbers of note: 3.01 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 4.55 K/BB, 3.4 bWAR
Why he’s here: Shohei Ohtani wasn’t the only guy who starred in Japan the past few years as a pitcher to hit a home run in the majors in 2018. And Mikolas actually went deep before Ohtani, slugging one over the fence on April 2, his first start of the year. Ohtani, of course, quickly passed him on the home-run chart, but that’s OK with the Cardinals.
Mikolas hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2014, and he OK at best in a couple opportunities with the Padres and Rangers. Mikolas found success in Japan and signed a two-year, $15.5 million contract with the Cardinals this offseason. His 2018 campaign has to be considered close to best-case scenario for the Cardinals; St. Louis has won 22 of his 30 starts and he’s the only starter who has stayed in the rotation all season.
RP Adam Ottavino, Rockies
Numbers of note: 2.6 bWAR, 13.0 K/9, 2.33 ERA
Why he’s here: True, Ottavino has had more past MLB success than others on this list. But he’s here because he was so darn bad in 2017 and he’s been so damn good in 2018. Night-and-day stuff, y’know? From a 5.06 ERA/5.16 FIP/1.631 WHIP last year to a 2.33 ERA/2.52 FIP/0.982 WHIP this season? His hits per nine dropped from 8.1 to 4.8, his walks per nine from 6.6 to 4.1 and his strikeouts per nine jumped from 10.6 to 13.0. Yeah, that’s the stuff that gets you on the surprise list.
