This is shaping up to be the most significant offseason in Steve Cohen’s tenure as the New York Mets’ owner.
Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Well, it's for real this time. Cohen has been operating a little bit without a rudder, and he found his rudder — and the needed captain for his Citi Field ship — by hiring David Stearns as the club’s first director of baseball operations. And Stearns wasted no time making his first impactful move, notifying manager Buck Showalter the club was heading in a new direction in that role.
It wasn’t so much that Showalter did anything wrong, but Stearns wanted his own hire in that role. Makes sense, but stinks for Showalter.
What else is on Stearns’ agenda? How about anything and everything? There’s lots of work to be done, of which player decisions are only part of it. But that’s the noticeable part, so let’s take a look at how this offseason could shape up for the Mets.
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Mets three offseason goals
1. Sign Shohei Ohtani. The very smartest thing Stearns did in his introductory press conference was to say the Mets were not, in fact, punting on the 2024 season. Cohen reportedly wants nothing more than to sign the world’s biggest baseball star, and for good reason. But Ohtani has seen enough seasons punted in his time with the Angels, and he’s not signing anywhere that doesn’t expect to compete in 2024. If Ohtani’s only goal is to sign the biggest contract available, the Mets should go ahead and start prepping for the press conference. Cohen will not be out-bid. But it’s not his sole criteria, of course. The Mets have to show they’re committed to winning, and they are heading in that direction.
2. Structure the organization. Cohen has talked about this in the past, about not just the splashy signings but building the organization in the way it needs to be built, in a way that was neglected by the previous owners. Getting Stearns in place was a huge step, and that will occupy a lot of Stearns’ time this offseason. That includes hiring a new manager and figuring out the coaching staff for 2024 and beyond.
3. Solve the Alonso dilemma. Pete Alonso has few peers as a slugger — his “worst” home run total in a full season is 37 — and he’s a free agent after the 2024 season. It’s hard to imagine he’ll play out next summer in limbo, so once Stearns gets a handle on a few other things, he’ll have to figure out whether he’s signing Alonso to an extension or trading him for reinforcements. The extension won’t be cheap; Alonso is heading into his Age 29 season, and he’ll be looking for a contract similar to what Aaron Judge got last offseason (8-9 years, $350 million-plus). Even with Cohen’s wealth, that’s not nothing, especially considering all the other areas of need with this team.
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Mets free agents
SP Carlos Carrasco: Everyone loves Carrasco as a person, but the club’s bottom line won’t miss his 6.80 ERA in 20 starts. Heading into his Age 37 season.
Mets free-agent targets
The list starts with Ohtani, obviously. But right up there at the top is Ohtani’s teammate on Team Japan from the WBC this spring, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He’s dominated in Japan and he’s just heading into his Age 25 season. Seriously, look.
2021: 1.39 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 0.847 WHIP
2022: 1.68 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 0.927 WHIP
2023: 1.21 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 0.866 WHIP
Those numbers, by the way, are better than Kodai Senga’s numbers in Japan, and he came over to MLB last year and was outstanding for the Mets.
With Jeff McNeil’s ability to play a few positions, the club has some options when looking at the free agent market. But here’s a question: Are they satisfied with Brett Baty at third base? He was a highly regarded prospect, and he definitely had some good moments in 2023 in the bigs, but had long stretches where he struggled, and his final numbers (.212 average, 65 OPS+) aren’t exactly stellar. If they don’t believe in him, do they open up the pocketbook for Matt Chapman? His bat isn’t what it used to be, but he’s still an elite defender and is the best infielder on the free-agent market this offseason.
They have an outfield opening, too. Cody Bellinger, who had an outstanding rebound year for the Cubs, would certainly fit. Maybe veteran Teoscar Hernandez? Joc Pederson? Any outfielder brought in would probably figure into the mix at DH, too. Daniel Vogelbach didn’t hit enough (104 OPS+, 13 homers) to keep a hold on that job. Maybe Rhys Hoskins?
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Mets potential trade targets
This doesn’t necessarily feel like a big trade offseason for the Mets. There are solutions to be found on the free-agent market, and the club’s committed to building from within, so trading away top prospects doesn’t really fit that model. Unless, of course, it’s a situation where they trade for a soon-to-be-free agent and sign him to an extension (hi, Corbin Burnes!). Now, if they’re in contention at next year’s trade deadline and need reinforcements? That’s when you’ll see movement.
Mets on the trading block
The Mets did most of their trading before the deadline, but there are names. Jose Quintana pitched well when healthy, but he spent most of the season on the IL. He has one year left on his deal, and could bring a decent return if the Mets find pitching on the free-agent market. Same contract situation for Omar Narvaez, with one year remaining. He was an All-Star with Milwaukee (Stearns’ former team, remember), but struggled massively at the plate, to the tune of a 61 OPS+ last year. Vogelbach has one year remaining, too. Neither Vogelbach nor Narvaez would bring back much.
That brings us back to Alonso. It feels impossible to believe that he’ll be moved this offseason, but trade winds can arise unexpectedly some winters. If a power-hungry team sends over a massive offer (the Brewers were reportedly made an offer last summer) that the club feels it can’t turn down? That would almost certainly be the biggest trade of the offseason, for anybody.
Final thoughts
Yeah, the 2023 season was incredibly disappointing. But the Mets are still heading in the right direction as a franchise, even with the unexpected detour this summer.
