With the benefit of hindsight, the way the Dodgers’ final game of spring training ended was more symbolic than anyone thought at the time.
On March 27, the third game of the Freeway Series against the Angels ended in the fifth inning when a water main under the stadium broke and sewage spilled onto the field, releasing an unmistakable foul stench that made the decision to end the last exhibition contest pretty easy.
And yet, that result was probably preferable to what happened at Dodger Stadium this weekend. The Cincinnati Reds headed to the West Coast for a four-game series with the Dodgers with only 10 wins in 37 contests; they had the worst record in the National League, three-and-a-half games clear of the closest “competitor.”
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But the Reds won all four games at Dodger Stadium, outscoring Los Angeles 20-9 in those victories. Even with the Dodgers’ lackluster play of late, that was a rather stunning result.
The Reds needed 22 games to collect their first four wins of the season, and then they picked up four in four days in the shadow of Hollywood. Think about this: Even after the Reds' starting pitchers limited the Dodgers to five runs in 20 innings (a 2.25 ERA), Cincy’s starters still have the worst collective ERA in the NL, at 5.08.
Before the sewage-stopped game against the Angels, manager Dave Roberts was asked about his team’s mentality entering the season: “It’s to do whatever we can to win the World Series. But ... it’s a fresh start, it’s a new season.”
There wasn’t anything fresh about the way that contest ended, and the 2018 season has continued on the same path. The Dodgers are 16-24, a .400 winning percentage. They’re eight games behind the Diamondbacks, in fourth place in the NL West. Of the 15 teams in the National League, only two have fewer wins than the Dodgers, and one of those teams is the Reds, the club that just thumped L.A. in L.A.
As the Los Angeles Times pointed out, that 16-24 mark is the Dodgers’ worst 40-game start since 1958.
"I think that we are a good team,” Roberts told reporters after the sweep. “We haven't played like one consistently. But I think that's a fair point: You are what your record is, so it's up to us to prove otherwise.”
So, how did the team that made it all the way to Game 7 of the 2017 World Series get to the point where we’re having “worst record since …” conversations?
Injuries have played a big role. Third baseman Justin Turner hasn’t played yet this season, out with a wrist broken thanks to a fastball in spring training. He’s expected back this week, though. Corey Seager is out for the year with Tommy John surgery, an unusual injury for a shortstop. Starter Rich Hill has made just four starts and has a 7.11 ERA.
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Clayton Kershaw made seven starts before landing on the DL. Hyun-Jin Ryu was outstanding for five starts, but injured his groin in his sixth start and will be out until sometime in July. Yasiel Puig spent time on the DL, and he’s batting just .204. Logan Forsythe is now on the DL, with a .174 average. Lefty reliever Tony Cingrani is on the DL, too, with a 5.79 ERA.
And some guys are just struggling. After a breakthrough 2017 (.288 average, .354 on-base percentage, .850 OPS), Chris Taylor has struggled (.232/.301/.718). Cody Bellinger had a .933 OPS last year, but he’s at .788. Closer Kenley Jansen has a 3.78 ERA/4.77 FIP after posting a 1.32 ERA/1.31 FIP last year, and he’s not the only struggling reliever. As a group, L.A.’s relievers have a 4.51 ERA (13th of 15 NL teams) and a 4.40 FIP (dead last).
OK, so what now?
Nobody expected this team to be eight games out of first place in its division, with one of the worst records in the league. Seager is gone for the season. Kershaw is out for at least another couple of weeks, Ryu for another couple of months. Hill left his most recent start with a blister, a problem that’s plagued him for years. They’d like to hope that getting swept by the Reds at home would be the low point, but injuries are still a very real thing.
The season is far from over, though. It’s mid-May. Last year the Dodgers went 41-10 in June and July. Even going 31-20 would get them back in the playoff race, for either the division or the wild card. As they tried to avoid the luxury tax, the Dodgers were not aggressive in the offseason, as many have pointed out, but this isn’t a front office that’s going to let the season drift away. Sure, the payroll is way down, but the opening-day number still topped $187 million. The window of contention isn’t closing anytime soon, but baseball has taught us not to waste any opportunities.
They could make a trade for superstar shortstop Manny Machado, a free-agent-to-be crushing the baseball for a Baltimore team with a .317 winning percentage. He wouldn’t be cheap in prospect cost, but the Dodgers do have a stocked farm system, and the Orioles lost most of their trade leverage by waiting this long to deal Machado.
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If they were to somehow add Machado and Turner comes back and produces the way he has from the moment he put on a Dodgers uniform in 2014, that would be a huge shot in the arm, offensively.
Even with just the return of Turner and the return to form of guys such as Puig — who homered Sunday — and Bellinger and Taylor and Jansen and Kenta Maeda (3.80 career ERA, 4.75 ERA in 2018), their fortunes could turn around quickly, because here’s the truth: It’s not like the Dodgers have been getting blown out all season. Eleven of their losses are by one or two runs, and only four of the 23 losses were by five or more. They’ve only allowed one more run than they’ve scored this season.
Are they going to catch the Diamondbacks? That will be difficult. Arizona has a very good team, even after stumbling at home against the Nationals this weekend, and it won’t be easy for the Dodgers to get to the 95 or so wins it will take to win the division after their start. But can they get to the 87-89 wins it will take to get a wild-card spot?
Yep, that’s possible. They just need a fresh(er) start.
