Cooperstown Chances examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. This week: Justin Verlander.
Who he is: It’s been no secret Justin Verlander’s Hall of Fame chances have suffered the past few years, with the former Tigers ace going 33-33 with a 3.93 ERA and 2.8 Wins Above Average since the beginning of the 2013 season.
Verlander had surgery in the winter of 2014 to repair a core muscle injury, had a subsequent “18 month stretch in the wilderness,” as Tiger blog Bless You Boys put it, and then finished well enough last season that it was hard to make heads or tails of his chances going forward.
This much seems clear: The pitcher who once had a shot at becoming one of baseball’s few 300-game winners in the foreseeable future is now no sure bet to get to 200 wins. Sure, Verlander “could be an ace again,” as Tyler Kepner wrote April 1 for The New York Times, noting that Verlander had a 2.12 ERA over his final 11 starts in 2015 while keeping opposing hitters to a .194 batting average.
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Then, of course, Verlander got shellacked on Monday, giving up seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.
In general, the deck is stacked against Verlander, who turned 33 in February. Not many players in baseball history have done what he will need to do over the next few seasons to keep his chances for Cooperstown alive. It’d be a great story, no doubt, but it’s nothing worth counting on.
Cooperstown chances: 30 percent
Why: A good baseline for Hall of Fame pitchers is 70 Wins Above Replacement. It’s not a hard and fast number that suggests every pitcher who hits it deserves automatic enshrinement, just another sign they’re at least in the conversation. For reference, current holdover candidate Mike Mussina has 82.7 WAR while Curt Schilling has 80.7. Mussina and Schilling each look like they could eventually be voted in by the Baseball Writers' Association of America, though it might take a few more years.
Verlander had 43.9 WAR heading into this season, meaning he needs roughly 26 WAR the rest of his career to get to 70 WAR. Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index tool notes that 40 pitchers in baseball history have amassed at least 26 WAR from their age 33 seasons through the ends of their careers.
Verlander faces tougher odds of getting to 80 WAR, a safer number for Cooperstown. Just 17 pitchers in baseball history have gotten the 36 WAR that Verlander needs from their age 33 seasons through the ends of their careers. The bright side for Verlander is that just five of the 17 aren’t Hall of Famers as of this writing: Roger Clemens and Schilling, who each have good chances of eventually getting in; Jamie Moyer, who has his supporters; and long-shot candidates Dennis Martinez and Jack Quinn.
If Verlander stays healthy, pitches eight more seasons, and retires when he’s 40, getting to 80 WAR is possible. Baseball-Reference.com notes that Verlander has had 5.2 WAR for every 226 innings during his career. That health, though, is a big if for any aging pitcher.
Historically, it’s unusual for pitchers to remain effective as they age. The current era of baseball appears worse about this than ever, with more Tommy John surgeries and damaged starters and a greater emphasis on relievers eating innings. Sure, there will be the occasional Randy Johnson who saves his best work for a sublime, reason-defying stretch in his late 30s. But for every Randy Johnson, there seem to be a dozen onetime young aces with bum arms relegated to the ends of rotations, comeback attempts, or announcing.
Verlander has a slightly better chance at the Hall of Fame outside of sabermetrics, depending on how soon he wants to get in. Sabermetrics are of course far from the only decider for Cooperstown, with many voters still hesitant to make decisions on such a basis. Voters of this persuasion might like Verlander, who has been a core member of one of baseball’s best teams over the course of his career. Verlander seems to have that Jack Morris appeal, where a certain degree of logic goes out the window in assessing his candidacy.
That said, Verlander will still need to hit some kind of statistical baseline to be a viable Hall of Fame candidate, because it’s unheard of for the BBWAA and current Hall of Fame committees to not consider stats. The average Hall of Fame starting pitcher has 269 wins. Verlander needs 112 more wins to get there. Just 34 pitchers have won 112 games from their age-33 seasons to the ends of their careers, with 20 of these pitchers in the Hall of Fame now. Thus, it’s no more likely Verlander will finish as a middle of the road Hall of Famer by career wins than WAR.
Verlander could certainly get in Cooperstown with fewer career wins. The BBWAA has voted in players like Sandy Koufax, Dizzy Dean and Pedro Martinez, who all shined brightly before facing premature ends to their careers. It will be interesting to see what the writers do when two-time Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, who retired at 36 with 203 wins, becomes eligible in the fall of 2018. Verlander won the 2011 American League Cy Young and MVP awards and might have similar career numbers when Halladay hits the ballot. It’s worth keeping an eye on how Halladay does in Hall of Fame voting for Verlander’s sake.
Hall of Fame committees have also enshrined many pitchers with low win totals, such as Jim Bunning, who retired with 224 wins in 1971 and got in via the Veterans Committee in 1996. Verlander would need 67 more wins to match Bunning, something 111 other pitchers have done from their age-33 seasons to retirement. So if Verlander’s healthy the remainder of his career, patient, and maybe weighs a congressional run, he could be the next Bunning. He probably has the votes in the Detroit area.
Cooperstown Chances examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. Series author and Sporting News contributor Graham Womack writes regularly about the Hall of Fame and other topics related to baseball history at his website, Baseball: Past and Present. Follow him on Twitter: @grahamdude.