Juan Soto contract projection: How Yankees outfielder could be highest-paid MLB player ever once he hits market

Few players in MLB history have hit free agency at a better time than Juan Soto.

Soto's profile is almost tailor-made to break the bank this winter. He won't turn 26 until late October and has 200 career home runs, a career .953 OPS and a championship under his belt with no injury history. Soto has performed in three different markets of various sizes, and he didn't seem intimidated for a second by the pressure of playing in New York.

Because of how young Soto was when he debuted in the majors, he's hitting free agency at the start of his prime. That sets him up for one of the biggest paydays in MLB history.

Here's a look at the kind of contract Soto could land this offseason as he tries to cap his first season in New York with a championship. 

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Juan Soto contract projection

Soto likely won't get the $70 million annual salary that Shohei Ohtani got from the Dodgers, but it's not out of the question that his total value could exceed Ohtani's if Soto is willing to take a longer deal.

Entering his age-26 season, Soto could be able to secure a deal in the 12-14 year range. A deal on the longer end of that range might compete with Ohtani.

The baseline for Soto's next contract, though, figures to be $500 million. Unless Soto strategically wants to take a shorter deal than expected, he's on track to become the second player in MLB history to land a $500 million deal. 

Aaron Judge landed $40 million annually from the Yankees in 2022. He was coming off a season unlike any other, but he was also on the verge of turning 31. Soto will be freshly 26 and has been more durable than Judge. Soto's .953 OPS is about in line with Judge's .977 OPS before free agency, but a sport's highest salaries naturally rise year-over-year. 

A $500 million deal over 12 years would pay Soto $41.7 million per year. He can likely do better than that. If his deal did come in at 12 years, a final figure in the mid-to-high $500 millions could be how it shakes out. 

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Juan Soto landing spots

Yankees

The unfortunate reality of baseball is there are only so many teams that can actually afford Soto. The Yankees are one of them, and they knew that when they traded for him.

While Soto is intent on testing the market and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has called the franchise's payroll "not sustainable," New York has the resources to make a compelling offer to the young star and will undoubtedly be involved when Soto hits the open market. 

Will Soto simply take the highest offer, or will he value his season with the Yankees? He certainly seemed comfortable in the Bronx and put together a stellar season. Whether they go the distance or not this season, the Yankees have the resources to compete for a championship each year. If that matters to Soto, a return is much more likely.

If it's a matter of accepting the highest bid, the Yankees will have to step up just like they did for Judge at the last minute two years ago.

Mets

It's been no secret that the Mets would like to make a run at Soto. The Yankees' crosstown rival can spend big money under owner Steve Cohen, and some more payroll flexibility is coming after this season. Can the Mets really pull off that coup and bring Soto back to the NL East?

If Soto likes playing in New York and the Mets offer the most money, it's hard to imagine Cohen's team not being firmly in the mix for the All-Star. The Mets have proven in 2024 that they're ready to compete for championships, and after overachieving in what was supposed to be a transitional year, New York could view Soto as the piece that puts the team over the top.

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Dodgers

The Dodgers simply have to be included in the conversation for any free agent who could command a deal like Soto. Only a few teams can handle that type of contract, and Los Angeles is one of them.

Would the Dodgers make a serious run at Soto after spending so much money last offseason? It might make more sense to invest their money in pitching after another year of serious rotation questions in October, but if they can somehow make it work, a lineup featuring Soto and Shohei Ohtani would be an unbelievable way to compensate for those questions.

Nationals

The dark horse! Nationals fans gave Soto a rousing ovation when he and the Yankees played in Washington D.C. in August, despite it not being his first time back at Nationals Park. Washington is emerging from a rebuild, and what better way to energize the fan base than bringing back a star who helped the team win a championship in 2019.

Soto has been nothing but positive when talking about his time with the Nationals. Could Washington make it work financially? This seems like the right time to start spending money again, and the Nationals aren't exactly a small-market team. They did, however, offer him a mega deal that was rejected in 2022.

A Soto deal now would require even more than the 15-year, $440 million offer the Nationals made two years ago, at least in terms of annual salary. Don't be surprised if GM Mike Rizzo at least puts out some feelers for Soto. 

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Juan Soto stats

Soto's 201 home runs before turning 26 are tied with Albert Pujols for the sixth-most in MLB history. A full 2020 season might have put him at the top of the list, as he's just 21 off the record. 

Durability and youth could put Soto on track for one of the best offensive careers anyone has ever seen, at least from a statistical standpoint. Not only did Soto debut at just 19, but he hasn't missed time with any significant injury in his MLB career. He's played more than 150 games in each of the last four seasons, and his longest absence was the result of a positive COVID-19 test at the start of the 2020 season.