This much is clear. Through the end of last year, Joey Votto was on-pace to be one of the best first basemen in baseball history.
Over his first nine seasons, the Cincinnati Reds stalwart compiled 29.2 Wins Above Average, ninth-best among all first basemen for these years. Of the eight men in front of Votto, five are in the Hall of Fame, Albert Pujols and Jeff Bagwell are likely selections, and Todd Helton will at least draw some votes.
Votto has had his detractors, people who don’t ascribe to sabermetrics, people who say he walks too much. Perhaps these people could knock Votto as well for the Reds not winning any championships during his career, though great players don’t always experience this. Until this season, Votto’s critics have mostly looked misguided.
This year, of course, has been all the ammunition a Joey Votto hater could hope for. Two months in, Votto’s batting average has been in the low .200s, his level of play sub-replacement caliber thus far. Near as anyone can tell, it’s simply been a slump, though Votto’s shown signs of breaking it, with a .321/.472/.679 slash his first eight games in June.
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“Everyone knows at some point in time he’s going to bust out of this, and now we’re starting to see that,” Reds manager Bryan Price told the Cincinnati Enquirer on June 3.
Whether this continues to happen is critical to Votto’s Hall of Fame case. The rest of this season could make or break it.
Cooperstown chances: 30 percent
Why: Looked at another way, Votto had 29.2 Wins Above Average through his age 31 season. Fifteen first basemen in baseball history have had at least 28 Wins Above Average through this season of their careers, according to Baseball-Reference.com. They are:
- Albert Pujols, 64.3;
- Jimmie Foxx, 58.9;
- Lou Gehrig, 58.4;
- Jeff Bagwell, 39.5;
- Dan Brouthers, 36.2;
- Roger Connor, 35.1;
- Frank Thomas, 32.2;
- Todd Helton, 31.6;
- Johnny Mize, 30.5;
- Eddie Murray, 30.1;
- Votto, 29.2;
- George Sisler, 28.8;
- Hank Greenberg, 28.7;
- Keith Hernandez, 28.6;
- Willie McCovey, 28.
Some players like Foxx, Sisler, or Pujols did enough by their early 30s to take the rest of their careers off and still be assured a Hall of Fame plaque. (Pujols might have done enough in that span to rate as the greatest first baseman all-time after he retires.) Others needed their mid to late 30s to solidify their Hall of Fame cases or watch them collapse.
Take Hernandez, who looked like a Hall of Famer through his 20s, but declined badly in his mid-30s, tallying -0.2 Wins Above Average after turning 33. He retired at 36 and has never rated as a serious Hall of Fame candidate, though he has supporters who could point to him as one of the most underrated first basemen in baseball history. There’s a chance Votto could be his generation’s Keith Hernandez.
Then there’s Helton who was good for a cumulative 1.2 Wins Above Average from his age-32 season through the end of his career. For the more traditionally-inclined, Helton averaged 30 homers, 102 RBI, and a .337 batting average through 2005. For his remaining eight seasons, Helton averaged 12 homers, 61 RBI, and a .289 batting average. It’s like a tale of two totally different careers. The fact that all of it came for the Colorado Rockies is probably enough to prevent Helton from coming remotely close to a Hall of Fame plaque with the Baseball Writers Association of America when he becomes eligible in the fall of 2018.
Votto faces tough odds as well. For one thing, his health has been questionable, with Votto logging 111 games in 2012 and 62 games in 2014. The more injuries he suffers in the years to come, the more his case for Cooperstown will suffer. He has just 1,273 hits and 203 homers currently and will need time to accummulate the kind of stats the majority of voters still favor. Maybe things will be different when Votto is a first-time candidate in 10 or 15 years, though changes with Hall of Fame voting are glacial.
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So how much can Votto add to his numbers? Entering this season, he averaged 29 home runs and 179 hits for every 162 games. If Votto were to somehow log every game through 2024 and maintain his statistical pace, he’d have 464 home runs and 2,884 hits. But players get hurt, and even when they remain relatively healthy, they regress from their peaks.
More likely, Votto will finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 425 home runs and 2,500 hits, which could make him a longshot with the BBWAA. Just three Hall of Fame first basemen have retired since 1950 with fewer homers: Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, and Mize. For whatever reason, Hall of Fame voters expect first basemen to finish with gaudy powers. Even 500 homers isn’t really cutting it anymore with a lot of voters.
For Votto to reach 425 homers and 2,500 hits would admittedly be historically rare. He finished last season with 192 home runs and 1,246 hits. Just three first basemen have had at least 258 homers after their age-31 seasons. Just seven have had at least 1,254 more hits.
Of course, Votto’s not bound by any kind of historical precedent. One of the great things about baseball is that anything can happen and that new precedents are being forged regularly. Votto’s career is still very much full of possibility. He just has his work cut out for him and a slump that’s hopefully over.
Cooperstown Chances examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. Series author and Sporting News contributor Graham Womack writes regularly about the Hall of Fame and other topics related to baseball history at his website, Baseball: Past and Present. Follow him on Twitter: @grahamdude.