ATLANTA — If you're tallying such things, Orlando Arcia doesn't qualify for NL Comeback Player of the Year, though his season so far does have a real comeback vibe.
Of course, the Braves' suddenly hot-hitting shortstop is actually eligible for that award by the letter of the law, just not by the reality of baseball tradition. That's because Arcia is not coming back from anything.
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There was no devastating injury that caused him to miss most of a season or otherwise took him off his game. There was no terrible season from which he's recovered and thrived. There was no personal issue he's overcome to produce strong numbers.
No, Orlando Arcia is apparently just good now. After years of solid defense that was frequently offset by offense that ranged mostly from mediocre to poor, he's now a potential All-Star package that has arrived at the perfect time to fill a massive area of need for the Braves as they chase their sixth straight NL East title.
So, don't call it a comeback, because Arcia's been here the whole time. But, you might say, he's finally showed up.
Entering play Friday, Arcia's hitting .313 with an .881 OPS through 109 plate appearances — the best start to a season he's ever had. But dig deeper and you discover these tidbits too:
- He's hitting the ball harder than he has in a long time. His average exit velocity this season is 91.1 mph, which is above league average and is well above the 87.5 he averaged from 2016 to 2021.
- His barrel percentage has jumped to 10.4 this year after a career average of 4.1 from 2016 to 2022.
- His expected batting average this year is .288, which is 55 points higher than his career average and seven points higher than his previous best.
- His hard-hit rate is about 48 percent, nearly six points higher than his previous high.
- His chase rate is 26 percent, lower than it's ever been and well below his career average of 31.9 percent.
So, yes, this is apparently a new Orlando Arcia. To say it was expected would be a lie. But, looking back, Arcia offered a fair amount of evidence suggesting the possibility. More on that in a bit.
Coming into spring training, Arcia seemed the least likely option for the Braves at shortstop after veteran Dansby Swanson departed in free agency. Youngster Vaughn Grissom was the early favorite to land the role after a strong showing in his 2022 debut season and lots of offseason work with Braves defensive guru Ron Washington.
But, ultimately, Grissom wasn't ready and opened the season in the minors, his shot finally coming when Arcia suffered a broken wrist in April. But Grissom's shaky stint as the fill-in only proved that Arcia remained the best choice.
Before the season, the Braves would've happily taken even league-average offense from Arcia, as long as his defense remained solid. But his 135 OPS+ this season is far better than average. It's also 20 points higher than Swanson's.
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So what has changed to turn Arcia, at 28 years old, from a mediocre backup to a starting stud? Is it just maturity? Is it being with the right team at the right time with the right coaches? There's a case to be made for both. But in Arcia's mind, it's something much simpler, even obvious.
"Just the opportunity to play every day," he told me through an interpreter. "I think that's what keeps someone engaged and focused."
But having a simple explanation does not necessarily equate to easy execution in the box.
Arcia's last full, non-COVID season as an MLB starter was in 2019, when he played short for the wild-card Brewers. But even then, his bat was inconsistent. He finished that year with an OPS of just .633, a significant drop from his lackluster .731 mark in 2017, his other full season as a starter.
Inconsistent or poor offense largely defined his time in Milwaukee, as evidenced by a couple of minor league demotions in 2018 and, ultimately, his trade to the Braves in 2021, when he spent most of the season at Triple-A Gwinnett.
But the trade to Atlanta offered a fresh start for Arcia, not to mention a lot of learning along the way, that helped create the Arcia 2.0 the Braves have seen in 2023.
"I think the maturing process has helped him a lot," said Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. "He was really young when he was an everyday guy in Milwaukee and, you know, had his struggles. Being able to grow up and see more pitches, get more at-bats — he's in a good place."
Seitzer said Arcia had some mechanical issues with this swing that he needed to "clean up" after arriving in Atlanta. He did that, kept working and learning, and now his approach at the plate goes deeper.
"He slows the game down big time. Since he's been getting regular at-bats this year, it's been impressive just how slow his heartbeat is in the batter's box," Seitzer said. "He's had great discipline in the strike zone, handling secondary stuff really good. ... The dude's got some power, but he's a line drive guy who just tries to put the barrel on the ball."
Arcia has been far from one dimensional at the plate. He's contributing in all the ways modern teams hope to see from a premier position. Last week, his ninth-inning go-ahead homer in Texas powered the Braves to a comeback win over the Rangers. On Thursday against the Phillies, he worked a key eighth-inning walk to load the bases ahead of a two-run, go-ahead single from Travis d'Arnaud that keyed an 8-5 win.
An RBI double here, a two-out run-scoring single there. It's all been coming together with greater frequency than ever before.
"During my at-bats, I'm just going to go try and make something happen," Arcia said. "Stay calm and look for good pitches."
Arcia's 2023 performance is what stands out most, but it was in 2022, while he filled in for an injured Ozzie Albies at second base, that something clicked and Arcia 2.0 really began to emerge.
Since Aug. 1 of last season, Arcia has an OPS of .867 in 47 games and 171 plate appearances. For comparison, Dansby Swanson's OPS during that span, albeit in a larger sample size, is .738.
Arcia's surge in average exit velocity also began last season, when it passed 90 mph for the first time in his career. Likewise, his jump in barrel percentage started last season, when it reached 7.5 after a previous high of 5.6. Injury stints in 2022 and this season have kept the sample size relatively small, but Arcia's consistency this season would seem to indicate that it's more than a blip.
It's notable that after he missed three weeks this season with a broken wrist, Arcia returned to the lineup without any rehab assignments and continued his hot hand as if he'd never been away. His slash line since that return on May 7: .296/.356/.500.
It should be pointed out that Arcia has had a few other similar hot spans in his career that rival his start to 2023, but they came early in 2017, his first full season, before the league figured him out and made adjustments. The older, wiser Arcia, the one who's learned to make his own adjustments and slow things down, is giving reason to believe the 2023 version is the real him.
A door opened, and he walked right through.
"I'm getting the opportunity to play and I'm gonna keep giving my best effort, 100 percent, and making things happen," he said. "That's what I've been working toward and I'm going to continue working on that and hopefully keep having the results we're having."
