Who will win the Home Run Derby? Odds, betting favorites, best bets for MLB's 2024 contest

Adolis Garcia treated the postseason like the Home Run Derby in 2023. Can he now become the third player to win the derby in his home stadium?

Garcia is the hometown favorite and only non-All-Star in the Home Run Derby field, but the spotlight entering Monday will be on younger phenoms. Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr., both first-time All-Stars, are among the game's brightest talents. Henderson is the leading home run hitter in the field despite having just turned 23, which outlines his ridiculous offensive ability.

It's worth noting the format will be a bit different this year. Most importantly, there won't be any head-to-head matchups until the semifinals. The top four home run hitters in the first round will advance, so any thought about a tough first-round matchup hurting a player's chances is gone this year.

Here's a look at the latest odds for the 2024 Home Run Derby and which sluggers are the best bets in Texas.

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Home Run Derby odds 2024

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

The Home Run Derby features only one player who has won the event before, and he just so happens to be the favorite again. Two-time winner Pete Alonso is a slight favorite at +310 despite having only the fifth-highest home run total in the field.

Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna and Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia are next at +375 and +400, respectively, followed by Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson (+575) and Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. (+625).

Alec Bohm has the most distant odds at +2000. The Phillies All-Star had only 11 home runs at the time of his selection, though he leads MLB with 31 doubles.

Here's a complete look at the 2024 Home Run Derby odds:

Home Run Derby picks 2024

Best picks to win 2024 Home Run Derby

Bobby Witt Jr. (+625): Witt doesn't profile as a pure power hitter, which is fair. He only has 15 home runs on the season, and his size doesn't exactly scream "intimidating" from the outset. It's worth looking a bit deeper than that.

Witt's home runs travel an average of 417 feet, easily more than anyone else in the derby. One reason is that they often have to travel that far because of Kauffman Stadium's expansive outfield. Witt leads the AL with 25 doubles, 19 of which have come at home. The stadium might affect Witt's home run total, but he's proven he can hit the ball hard and hit it far.

Witt is in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate and 91st in hard-hit rate. His case looks similar to that of Julio Rodriguez the past two years. Rodriguez's power didn't stun anyone in 2022 or 2023 — in fact, it took him an entire month to hit his first career home run in 2022 — but his hard-hit rate and barrel percentage were both excellent each season. That translated to the Home Run Derby, where he put together explosive rounds before ultimately falling short.

Fatigue shouldn't be as much of a factor under the new format, so it wouldn't be surprising at all if Witt found some of the same magic Rodriguez did and sustained it until the end.

Marcell Ozuna (+375): Ozuna appears to be regaining his power stroke in the Braves' lineup, setting up for what should be a fun showing in the Home Run Derby.

There was talk about Ozuna potentially being designated for assignment when he hit .085 in April last season, but all he's done ever since is mash. The veteran finished with 40 home runs last season and has been one of the best all-around hitters in baseball in the first half this year.

Ozuna is in the 98th percentile in both hard hit rate and barrel percentage, and his average home run distance is second among the derby contestants behind only Witt.

Strikeouts have been Ozuna's only real flaw this season, but that doesn't matter much in the derby. Ozuna is in the 97th percentile in sweet-spot percentage, while no other player in the derby is even above the 75th percentile. That means when he makes contact with the ball, he tends to get ahold of it. 

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Best prop bets for the 2024 Home Run Derby

Top prop bets will be posted as they become available.

How many home runs will be hit in the 2024 Home Run Derby?

The over/under for home runs at the Home Run Derby has not been set. Last year's over/under was crushed by a record-setting 341 home runs, so the figure will likely be higher this season.

New rules could affect the totals this year. On one hand, hitters are now limited as to how many pitches they can face in the timed portion of each round. That would put a cap on home runs if not for the new bonus time rules, which eliminate a time restriction and give player three outs to work with. That means we could see more home runs in bonus time as long as players don't quickly waste their outs. 

Globe Life Field has a park factor of 101 compared to the fixed average of 100, meaning it very slightly benefits hitters. 

Here's a look at how many home runs have been hit in each Home Run Derby since the event switched to a timed format: