This year’s Home Run Derby was fun, wasn’t it?
Buzzer-beating home runs (that’s still a strange concept) to end high-energy head-to-head timed competitions. The hometown hero, Todd Frazier, pulling off three consecutive tension-filled wins to give the crowd at Great American Ball Park plenty to cheer about.
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Good times, all around. Here are the round-by-round results, in case you need a refresher.
One thing didn’t change, though. That’s the question of how — or, if — participating in the Home Run Derby impacts the contestants going forward. Some players swear the swinging-for-the-fences, swinging-from-your-heels approach can be an issue. Others say that’s a bunch of baloney.
We’re making no judgments here, just looking at the numbers. They are interesting, even they are still a ridiculously small sample size.
Todd Frazier, Reds
Pre-All Star break stats: .284/.337/.585, 25 homers, 57 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .169/.231/.310, one homers, 11 RBIs in 18 games
Thoughts: Frazier has talked often about how much he loves the derby, and it’s hard to blame him. He won this year’s contest at his home park and finished as runner-up in 2014. But at some point, he’s going to start hearing folks suggest that maybe he should sit the next round out. You see his numbers this year. Not great. Last season, Frazier had a .290/.353/.500 slash line heading into the All-Star events and a .222/.260/.264 slash line, with only one homer, in the 18 games after the break. Of course, no direct cause/effect can be proven, but Cincinnati front-office folks have surely taken notice.
Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Pre-All Star break stats: .230/.364/.487, 20 homers, 40 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .172/.284/.259, one homer, three RBIs in 15 games
Thoughts: It’s easy to try and pin Pederson’s recent struggles — and make no mistake, he has struggled mightily — on the derby, but his slide didn’t start with the new-this-year ticking clock. No, his skid started well before the All-Star Game festivities. In his 35 games prior to the break, Pederson batted just .172 and hit only three home runs. In other words, Los Angeles’ powerful rookie has had issues at the plate for quite a while.
Albert Pujols, Angels
Pre-All Star break stats: .255/.323/.532, 26 homers, 56 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .264/.284/.458, four homers, 10 RBIs in 18 games
Thoughts: It’s not at all surprising Pujols’ numbers are pretty similar. This is the fourth time the eventual Hall of Fame slugger has competed in the derby — though it’s the first time since Busch Stadium hosted the 2009 event — and Pujols understands the mechanics of his swing as well as any player in the bigs.
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
Pre-All Star break stats: .293/.351/.532, 21 homers, 60 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .290/.390/.739, eight homers, 20 RBIs in 18 games
Thoughts: Donaldson has been, by far, the best offensive producer of any of the derby contestants since the event.
Kris Bryant, Cubs
Pre-All Star break stats: .269/.376./472, 12 homers, 51 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .147/.269/.265, two homers, 10 RBIs in 19 games
Thoughts: A more concerning development than just Bryant’s paltry batting average since the All-Star Game is his inability to make contact. His strikeout percentage before the break (29.7 percent of his plate appearances) was already lofty. Since the break, though, he’s struck out 29 times in 81 plate appearances, a rate of 35.8 percent. That’s not ideal.
Prince Fielder, Rangers
Pre-All Star break stats: .339/.403/.521, 14 homers, 54 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .268/.354/.394, two homers, nine RBIs
Thoughts: Fielder knows the potential impact as well as any player in the bigs. When he won the derby in 2012, he had a .299 average and .885 OPS going in; in his first 19 games after the break, he had a .323 average and .899 OPS. When he won in 2009, he had a .315 average and 1.055 OPS; in his first 19 games after the break, he had a .267 average and .792 OPS. Fielder wound up hitting 24 second-half homers that year, so it clearly wasn’t that big of an issue for him.
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
Pre-All Star break stats: .298/.413/.542, 16 homers, 48 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .274/.337/.534, five homers, 15 RBIs in 19 games
Thoughts: Rizzo has turned into an on-base machine for the Cubs, and patient hitters who walk almost as much as they strike out (he has 51 walks and 60 strikeouts this season) can avoid long dry spells. His five homers since the break are the most of any participant, outside of the red-hot Josh Donaldson.
Manny Machado, Orioles
Pre-All Star break stats: .298/.361/.525, 19 homers, 48 RBIs
Post-All Star break stats: .257/.353/.446, four homers, eight RBIs in 19 games
Thoughts: Machado’s batting average is down a bit because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .250 since the break, as compared to .311 before the break. That’ll bring the slugging percentage down, too.
