It took a season’s worth of poor reads, misplays off the Green Monster, bobbled balls and countless other blooper-reel plays, but the Hanley Ramirez experiment in left field is finally coming to an end.
Red Sox interim manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Tuesday the shortstop-turned-left fielder will move to first base in a position change that could come as soon as this season.
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It’s about time.
Ramirez is statistically having one of the worst defensive seasons of any position player in the last three years, ranking last in the big leagues in defensive runs saved (-19), UZR (-16.7) and UZR/150 (-31.1) this season. It’s been the worst season defensively for any Red Sox player since Manny Ramirez in 2005.
But just how smooth will this transition to first be? Will he fare any better in the switch to first than he did when he moved to left field this season?
Recent history tells us he probably won’t.
There are three current major leaguers — Miguel Cabrera, Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Zimmerman — who started their careers at other positions aside from catcher — we left former catchers off the list to make a more fluid comparison — before becoming full-time first basemen. Advanced fielding statistics prove that none of the three players have seen significant improvements in their defensive value since the change.
Here’s an analysis of each player’s adjustment.
Miguel Cabrera
2007 (3B): UZR/150: -5.0, DRS: -19
2008 (1B): UZR/150: -4.2, DRS: -7
2015: UZR/150: -6.9, DRS: 1
Breakdown: Cabrera may be the most interesting comparison because he was also a full-time left fielder at one point — albeit earlier in his career — and failed before becoming the Marlins’ starting third baseman in 2006. Cabrera was the Opening Day third baseman in his first season with the Tigers in 2008, but that experiment was short-lived as he posted a -40.2 UZR/150 in 116 innings at third. Cabrera moved back to third in 2013 to make room for Prince Fielder before switching back the next season, and has remained a negative defensive player regardless of where he’s been.
Pedro Alvarez
2014 (3B): UZR/150: -19, DRS: -5
2015 (1B): UZR/150: -24.9, DRS: -13
Breakdown: This is almost unfair because of how bad of a defensive player Alvarez has been throughout his career. However, the numbers make a clear point. Alvarez hasn’t just remained a bad fielder statistically, he’s actually been worse in his first season at first base. Of course, this is the worst-case scenario for Ramirez next year, but it’s still worth noting that things actually can get worse.
Ryan Zimmerman
2013 (3B): UZR/150: -14.9, DRS: -1
2015 (1B): UZR/150: -1.2, DRS: 1
Breakdown: This is the best-case scenario for Ramirez and the Red Sox. Zimmerman missed most of 2014 with a hamstring injury, and returned this season as the Nationals’ full-time first baseman, remaining serviceable as a fielder in his new position. The numbers, in fact, say he’s even better now than he was in his final season at third. Zimmerman, of course, was already a decent fielder before the switch. Ramirez is not. So the idea of Ramirez nearing plus defensive statistics is impractical.
The point here is that if you’re a bad fielder, you’re going to remain a bad fielder wherever you play. Odds are such will be the case for Ramirez at first base.
One major flaw to this comparison is that all three players highlighted were third basemen. That is mere coincidence. However, Ramirez was a starting shortstop for nine years before transitioning to left in 2015. Those numbers – he owns a career -8.8 UZR/150 and -77 DRS at short – tell a similar story about his defensive skillset.
Ramirez will have a greater margin for error at first than he did in left, especially at Fenway Park. That’s enough reason to believe he won’t match the incompetence-level he reached this season no matter how poorly he’ll continue to play.
The good news for the Red Sox is it ends an awful experiment that’s embodied a disastrous season. And it opens the opportunity for Boston to pursue a higher-quality left fielder in the offseason, or perhaps give a young outfield of Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. a shot next season.
Regardless, a change needed to be made. Although it was long overdue, the Red Sox took the first step toward making that happen this week.