This is the last preview in a series examining the 2014 fantasy baseball outlook of each major league team. Today, a look at the Rockies.
What's new
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before — the Rockies have lots of offensive fantasy players and very few pitching options.
Sure, some of the names are different. Dexter Fowler is gone, shipped to Houston. Justin Morneau has to step into Todd Helton’s shoes, which, while impossible from a team-icon point of view, is perfectly possible in terms of production. Jordan Lyles, who had trouble getting outs in Houston, moves to Coors Field along with Brett Anderson, who will try to stay healthy long enough to overcome the switch from Oakland to Colorado.
On the horizon, the Rockies might have a pair of pitchers, Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray, who could whet fantasy owners appetites, but overall, if you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for any number of years, then you know what to expect from Colorado. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez will be two of the game’s best fantasy options — when healthy. Wilin Rosario and Michael Cuddyer should provide solid production. At some point, you'll be able to talk yourself into playing just about any Rockies hitter and talk yourself out of nearly every Rockies pitcher, depending on if they’re home or on the road that day.
And there’s nothing wrong with that. Sometimes it’s nice to have relatively straightforward choices available.
Key additions: 1B Justin Morneau, OF Drew Stubbs, LHP Brett Anderson, RHP Jordan Lyles, OF Brandon Barnes, LHP Franklin Morales.
Key subtractions: OF Dexter Fowler, LHP Drew Pomeranz, 1B Todd Helton.
Contract-year players: SP Brett Anderson (club option), OF Michael Cuddyer, SP Jorge De La Rosa, SP LaTroy Hawkins (club option), SP Franklin Morales.
Burning question
How high is too high for CarGo and Tulo?
If Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki could stay healthy, they would each be top-five fantasy picks.
That’s not hyperbole. It speaks to their value that despite not playing more than 145 games in any season since 2010, both are clear first-round picks. In that span, Gonzalez has averaged 27 home runs and nearly 22 steals while batting no worse than .295. Tulo hit 27, 30 and 25 home runs, respectively, in the seasons he played more than 100 games, also batting over .300 in each campaign.
But it's almost inevitable that both players will get hurt. Since 2007, Tulowitzki has played 101, 151, 133, 143, 47 and 126 games. Gonzalez has been a bit better, playing in 145, 127, 135 and 110 since the start of 2010. The bottom line with these two is not “if” they miss time, but “when” — and “for how long?”
Yet, are fantasy owners overrating the injury issue? Consider that Andrew McCutchen, a consensus top-five pick, batted .317 with 21 homers and 27 steals in 157 games last year while Gonzalez hit 26 homers and stole 21 bases in his 110 games. Tulowitzki, a shortstop, hit 25 homers and batted .312.
Yes, you have to replace them when they get hurt, but you can replace them. In other words, if you draft CarGo or Tulo, you're getting their top-of-the-line rate production and then adding whatever their replacements bring in. Obviously, you have to be concerned that they might have the 47-game year Tulo had in ’12, but if you get 120 games out of them, that’s more than enough to justify the price you paid. If you get more, then you’ve made out like a bandit.
Fantasy's top three is pretty set with Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt, but beyond that, there’s an argument to be made that Tulowitzki and Gonzalez deserve to be in the conversation.
Hitters
Projected lineup: 1. Corey Dickerson, LF; 2. Michael Cuddyer, RF; 3. Carlos Gonzalez, CF; 4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS; 5. Justin Morneau, 1B; 6. Wilin Rosario, C; 7. Nolan Arenado, 3B; 8. DJ LeMahieu, 2B.
Lineup analysis: The Rockies lineup is a mix of fantasy studs, young guns and sleepers.
The 3-4 of Gonzalez and Tulowitzki is as solid as it comes (when they play). Surrounding them is 2013 NL batting champion Michael Cuddyer and newcomer Justin Morneau. Wilin Rosario brings plenty of punch from the catcher’s spot, slugging 49 home runs over the past two seasons despite playing in just 238 games. Combine that with a solid batting average, and Rosario is one of the top catchers available.
Nolan Arenado provided solid, though unspectacular, production in his rookie campaign last season. DJ LeMahieu, who actually swiped 18 bases last year, is ticketed to either the leadoff spot or the eighth spot. The winner of the left field battle will take the spot in the order LeMahieu doesn’t.
There’s certainly a chance all eight Rockies position players are taken in mixed-league drafts. Nine were actually drafted in our Experts’ League draft, with one manager even holding out hope this is the year Josh Rutledge, who doesn’t currently have a starting job, finally figures it out.
Position battle: Cuddyer and CarGo have two outfield spots locked down, but center field could end up a platoon with Corey Dickerson, Drew Stubbs, Charlie Blackmon and Brandon Barnes. Dickerson would have the highest upside of the group, having hit well in the minors, and he also seems like the best bet for playing time since Stubbs and Barnes have never hit for average. Last season, Dickerson batted .371 with 11 homers and six steals at Triple-A before putting up five dingers and two steals with a .263 average in 69 games in the bigs. … Formerly a highly-regarded prospect, Arenado was okay last season, batting .267 but with just 10 homers. His strikeout rate is conducive towards a high average (only 14 percent last year), but his power could improve. He’s a solid middle-round third baseman with upside.
Sleeper: While he’s no longer a huge power threat, Morneau at least stayed healthy last year. He hit 17 homers and batted .259, but it’s worth mentioning he’s moving from a home park that suppresses lefty power to one that enhances it. In other words, don’t be shocked if Morneau pushes 20 homers this season.
Pitchers
Projected rotation: 1. Jorge De La Rosa, LHP; 2. Brett Anderson, LHP; 3. Tyler Chatwood, RHP; 4. Juan Nicasio, RHP; 5. Franklin Morales, RHP. Also in the mix: Jordan Lyles, RHP.
Projected bullpen: Closer: LaTroy Hawkins, RHP; Next-in-line: Rex Brothers, LHP.
Staff analysis: Coors Field’s reputation precedes itself, making no Rockies' starter overwhelmingly attractive for opening day.
But the problem isn’t just Coors. Colorado's pitchers just don’t profile well as fantasy starters. None of them miss a lot of bats, with Juan Nicasio registering the highest K/9 ratio (6.79) of players who threw at least 100 innings last year.
Part of that is because the Rockies seem to have realized that heavy fly-ball options have a small margin for error. The ability to induce ground balls is the primary trait they want from their starters, which is good for real-life production but is going to give you much in fantasy. As a result, you really can’t rely on Rockies starters for much more than spot-starts in favorable parks in mixed leagues.
Relievers are a slightly different story. LaTroy Hawkins is no one’s preferred pick at closer, but he’s going to get save opportunities early on. If Hawkins falters, Rex Brothers would be the one who steps into the role. Control problems are an issue for Brothers, but his strikeout rate has been dominant in all three of his big-league seasons, striking out 11.17/9 over 175.2 big-league innings.
Position battle: The back of the rotation has spots up for grab. Franklin Morales who has just 25 starts in the big leagues, is competing against former Astro Jordan Lyles. Neither would have any mixed-league value. … Rockies manager Walt Weiss says he may play matchups in the ninth innings, going with lefty Rex Brothers in the right matchups. We’ll believe it when we see it. With that said, no one would be shocked if the 41-year-old Hawkins struggled in the role, so Brothers is worth a speculatory add late in drafts.
Sleeper: If any of the starting pitchers on the Rockies have a shot at being fantasy contributors, it’s former A’s lefty Brett Anderson. While he’s moving from one of the best pitchers parks to arguably the worst, Anderson has the skill set you want from a Coors Field pitcher. He gets ground balls — over 50 percent in all of his big-league seasons — and his career strikeout rate is 7.13/9. Of course, he’s never thrown more than 175.1 innings in the bigs, and that was back in 2009. Since then, he’s thrown just 275.1 innings over four years. It’s worth keeping an eye on Anderson to see how he does at Coors, but he’s no more than a mixed-league flier in the last round or two.
To-know list
Medical report: Jhoulys Chacin is out for at least the first month of the season due to a shoulder strain. He wasn’t going to be drafted in mixed leagues, but NL-only owners need to keep it in mind. … Carlos Gonzalez underwent an emergency appendectomy and hernia surgery during the offseason. He's been fine in spring training, so a greater concern is his finger injury from last year. He opted against surgery, but there’s always a possibility it flares up at a later date. …Troy Tulowitzki has dealt with calf and fibula injuries this spring. He is playing in games again, though, so he should be ready for opening day.
Prospect watch: The good news for the Rockies is that they have two potential front-line starting pitchers on the horizon. The bad news is that we’ve heard it before (see Drew Pomeranz). … Eddie Butler jumped from A-ball to Double-A over the course of 2013, maintaining strong numbers throughout both levels. In fact, his control improved with each stop. But with only six starts (27.2 innings), Butler seems likely to start the year at Double-A. ... The No. 3 pick of the 2013 draft, Jonathan Gray, was already at High-A by the end of '13. He posted a dominant 24 innings, striking out 36 and walking just six. Pedigree or not, High-A isn’t the majors. Keep an eye on him for the later half of the season. … The impact bat to watch is outfielder Kyle Parker, who slugged 23 homers and batted .288 in 123 games at Double-A. He’s hit 20 homers are A-ball, High-A and Double-A, all while improving his strikeout rate. If he can hit at Triple-A, and Drew Stubbs, Brandon Barnes and Corey Dickerson all struggle, Parker could find his way into playing time at some point in '14 — just don’t expect it to be out of spring training.
SABR section: It seems obvious to say but don’t bet on Cuddyer to win another batting title this year. He had a .382 BABIP (career .312) after having a .287 mark his first year in Coors. … Wilin Rosario’s power is for real, but his average may be a bit of a mirage. He struck out 23 percent of the time both of his first two seasons. BABIP was the only difference between his .270 average in 2012 versus his .292 one in ’13. You can certainly live with a catcher who hits .265 with 25-homer power, but don’t draft him necessarily expecting a high batting clip. … Rex Brothers’ control issues were mentioned before, but just to be specific, he’s has not sustained a walk rate below 4.43/9 since arriving at High-A. His strikeout rate is enough to get by with shoddy control, but over small samples relievers with poor control can blow up in disastrous ways.
Position eligibility: Depending on your league settings DJ LeMahieu may have gained 3B eligibility. Not that you want to start him there, but a little flexibility never hurt anyone. … Should Josh Rutledge get another chance at some point, he will have second base and shortstop eligibility. … The Rockies say they want to get Wilin Rosario more work at first base. If they do, enjoy the extra playing time and extra flexibility you get from him in daily leagues.
Ballpark effect: It will shock no one to see Coors Field is at the top of our Ballpark Power Index as the friendliest hitters park in the majors. Statcorner.com lists it as being homer-friendly to both lefties and righties, though it is one of the nicest to lefty sluggers. Upgrade visiting lefty sluggers if you need daily plug-n-play options during the season.