Dave Dombrowski was introduced as the Red Sox' president of baseball operations in a news conference at Fenway Park on Wednesday, marking the first in what could be a series of changes for a team fallen on hard times.
Dombrowski told reporters at the news conference that he’s “not here to blow up the operation.” However, the former Tigers general manager is taking over an organization on its way to a third last-place finish in four years, meaning there's plenty to be done in order to bring Boston back to relevance in 2016.
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Here’s what should be top five on Dombrowski’s to-do list.
1.) Hire a GM
Ben Cherington’s departure makes this an obvious need. It seems Dombrowski didn’t hesitate to address it either as former Orioles and Braves GM Frank Wren is reportedly a top candidate to fill that position.
Hiring someone such as Wren would represent a complete philosophy shift for the Red Sox, who under Theo Epstein and then Cherington relied heavily on analytics and sabermetrics as part of their baseball operation. Henry immediately embraced that ideology to the point where he hired Bill James as a team consultant.
A Dombrowski-Wren duo would bring a new, yet old, doctrine to Boston, one that would center around traditional scouting and player evaluation techniques and stray away from an abundance of data. That approach could signal an overhaul of the entire front office staff and scouting department to follow.
2.) Make a decision on John Farrell
It’s a sensitive topic for the team given the manager recently began chemotherapy treatment for Stage 1 lymphoma. But it’s one that will need to be addressed by October.
Farrell has a World Series title to his name, but Boston was 121-155 since then before his announcement last Friday. Dombrowski wouldn’t discuss specifics in regards to Farrell’s future, saying the manager’s health is the top priority. Farrell is under contract for 2016 and expressed his desire to return next season.
While Boston’s performance the last two seasons should at least call Farrell’s job into question, it’s seems unlikely he’ll be fired. Farrell was awarded a contract extension through 2017 in spring training and despite the team’s struggles received the backing of Henry in June. That should be enough to keep him around at least until next season.
3.) Fix the starting rotation
There’s never one reason why a last-place team is at the bottom of the standings. But if you had to pick one for the 2015 Red Sox, look no further than the starting rotation.
With Jon Lester and John Lackey gone, Boston came into the season without a true No. 1 starter. Its alternative was trading with Dombrowski’s Tigers for Rick Porcello — then signing him to a four-year, $82.5 million extension before he even threw a pitch — and Wade Miley, and signing Justin Masterson to a one-year deal. The Sox own the third-worst team ERA in baseball at 4.66 and have seen Porcello, Masterson and Joe Kelly implode before their very eyes, while Miley has been mediocre.
Dombrowski’s most important roster decisions this offseason will involve the starting rotation. Boston has nice, young, middle-of-the-rotation pieces for 2016 in Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens, but neither is an ace, although Rodriguez has shown flashes of potential.
The rest of the rotation is up for debate. Clay Buchholz has a team option for next season. And although he’s the team’s best pitcher when healthy, a seventh career trip to the disabled list in July makes him unreliable and doesn’t help his case for returning. Something needs to be done about Porcello, Miley and Kelly as well.
At this point, however, it’s less about who returns and more about who Dombrowski can bring in to improve one of the worst rotations in baseball. (Kill that David Price fantasy while it’s still early, Red Sox fans.)
4.) Overhaul the bullpen
The starting rotation is only part of the Red Sox’ pitching problems. Boston’s 4.29 bullpen ERA ranks as the fifth-worst in baseball and is only getting worse as closer Koji Uehara is out for the season with a fractured wrist.
Barring a trade, the Sox will get at least one more season of Uehara. The team’s only other reliable reliever — Junichi Tazawa – will be a free agent at the end of the season. Outside of those two, there should be little debate for Dombrowski as to whether or not the rest of the bullpen, highlighted by the likes of Alexei Ogando and Robbie Ross Jr., needs to be gutted.
But if recent history about Dombrowski tells us anything, it’s that leaving your team’s bullpen in his hands is bad news. According to Fangraphs, the Tigers have had the worst bullpen in baseball since 2003, ranking near the bottom of the majors in walk rate (3.90), strikeout rate (7.13) and home run rate (0.96). Although Boston’s middle relief can’t get much worse than it’s been in 2015, Dombrowski will need to overcome this roster-building flaw in particular if he wants results.
5.) Figure out what to do with Hanley Ramirez (and the rest of the outfield)
Of all the Cherington messes Dombrowski is forced to clean up, this one will probably be the most difficult. The Sox signed Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million deal in the offseason in hopes of a seamless transition to left field for the career shortstop.
Nearly one year in, the acquisition is looking like the worst of Cherington’s tenure as GM. Fangraphs’ defense metric ranks Ramirez as the worst fielder in baseball, while offensively he’s batting .259 and has hit just nine home runs since May. Ramirez told MassLive.com he wants to play left field next season, and he’s reluctant to return to the infield. Meanwhile, David Ortiz is all but guaranteed to return next season after earning his player option, so DH is out of the question.
The ideal solution would be to trade Ramirez, but that would require another team to be interested in him. Ramirez in left also leaves the Sox with a potential logjam in the outfield with young players Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. all trying to solidify full-time major league roles.
Perhaps one of those three will be used as trade bait in a deal to bolster their pitching staff. Betts is 22 and on the rise, so keeping him is preferred. There’s too much uncertainty with Bradley and Castillo – not to mention his $72.5 million contract – to assess their value on the market.
Honorable Mention: Blake Swihart vs. Christian Vazquez
Boston has a pair of young catchers with outstanding potential in Swihart and Vazquez.
Swihart is the wunderkind of the organization. He’s a former first-round pick and top prospect who has slowly but surely come around at the plate as the season’s progressed. Vazquez, on the other hand, showed elite defensive ability as a rookie in 2014, ranking as one of the top pitch framers in baseball despite getting nearly half the chances of other high-caliber pitch framers behind the plate. Vazquez underwent Tommy John surgery during spring training and should be ready for next season.
Both are young and capable of being the team’s longterm catcher. But the Red Sox can’t play both. Dombrowski will likely be forced to move one of them in the offseason, especially with Ryan Hanigan under contract for next year.