Road struggles remain a dark cloud over a Cubs season filled with lofty expectations.
Chicago enters Tuesday's game in New York vs. the Mets with a 25-39 road record, one of the worst marks in baseball this season. The club’s struggles away from Wrigley Field are well-documented, and yet they might not block their path to the National League Central title or wild-card berth.
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Hear me out on this one.
Since 2000, 33 teams have reached the playoffs with an away record below .500. That alone won’t make Chicago fans feel warm and fuzzy, but the postseason results of those 33 teams might: More than half (17) advanced in at least one multigame playoff series. In fact, eight of those teams reached the World Series. Two won it all.
Here are some notable playoff accomplishments from middling road teams since the turn of the century:
- 2006 Cardinals (34-47): Won World Series
- 2003 Marlins (38-43): Won World Series
- 2012 Tigers (38-43 away record): Won American League pennant
- 2005 Astros (36-45 away record): Won National League pennant
- 2008 Dodgers (36-45 away record): Won NLDS
That 2006 Cardinals team had the second-worst road record among playoff participants since 2000 (the 2015 Astros were 33-48), but they split the first two games of the World Series in Detroit en route to beating the Tigers in five games. Overall, St. Louis was 5-3 away from Busch Stadium in the playoffs that year.
This isn’t to say all of the Cubs' issues are entirely dismissed because of the 2006 Cardinals or the other poor road teams with postseason success, but several things need to go right for them to overcome their obvious weakness.
It begins with Chicago’s pitching struggles away from home.
No matter which stat you highlight, Joe Maddon's group is pitching significantly worse on the road this season. The table below shows a handful of key home-road splits:
| Split | Home | Away |
| W-L | 44-22 | 25-39 |
| ERA | 3.56 | 4.75 |
| Opp. BA | .237 | .264 |
| Opp. OPS | .693 | .789 |
The Cubs' away ERA is an immediate red flag, especially when compared with the home ERA. The 1.19-run disparity is the second-largest among NL playoff contenders and fourth-largest in MLB.
Hiccups by the bullpen (which has been injury-riddled of late) are largely to blame. Notable relievers Craig Kimbrel and Pedro Strop have both seen their respective ERAs climb to career-worst levels. Bullpen performance will make or break Cubs' chances in the season's final month and change.
The road ahead does offer a glimmer of hope, though: the Mets, Brewers, Padres, Pirates and Cardinals comprise the remainder of the Cubs' away opponents. Chicago is a combined 26-18 against those teams this year.
Even with all of their road struggles, the Cubs are very much within striking distance of the red-hot Cardinals in the NL Central or, at the very least, a wild-card spot. A better showing on the mound away from Wrigley could be their recipe for a playoff berth and possibly October longevity.