How the Cleveland Guardians turned three losing trades into an AL Central contender

Entering their weekend series with the Yankees, the Cleveland Guardians are 39-34 and one game back of the Twins in the AL Central. A team many expected before the season to finish in or near the cellar of the lowly division, the Guardians have instead managed to field a squad that looks capable of competing for the AL Central crown.

The near-consensus preseason pick White Sox have faltered with Tony La Russa at the helm. The Guardians have instead found themselves chasing the Twins, who acquired Carlos Correa in the offseason and are enjoying a breakout year from contact hitter extraordinaire Luis Arráez.

The Guardians just took three games of a five-game set with the Twins, the last two in walk-off fashion. The Twins have sabotaged themselves in the AL Central race. They've now blown five late leads against the Guardians this season for a swing of 10 games. It's the difference between a one-game and an 11-game lead in the division heading into July. If the Guardians pull out a division title in September, June will be the month that haunts Minnesota the most.

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The way the Twins built their team is apparent. While their top players -- Arráez and centerfielder Byron Buxton -- are homegrown, they've become comfortable looking outside of the organization and spending money where they see fit. Correa is an example, along with third baseman Gio Urshela and catcher Gary Sanchez, both acquired in a trade with the Yankees.

The Guardians, however, have taken a different approach, in which they've leveraged their homegrown players for huge hauls in trades. With a strong player development system, confidence in their process, a likely Hall of Fame manager who has somehow become underrated in Terry Francona, and some misfortune upon the players they've dealt, Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti isn't yet being regarded as one of the shrewdest front office dealers in baseball -- but he should be.

The Sporting News breaks down how Cleveland assembled a surprising contender: 

How was the Guardians roster built?

Position players

Of the 14 position players who have played in 30 or more games this season, eight were acquired in trades, three were drafted by the Guardians, two were signed as international free agents, and one was a free agent signing.

Within those acquired by trade, five of them were gotten by three trades that were criticized at the time of their completion. Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor, Amed Rosario, and Andres Gimenez were all key pieces in trades people said the Guardians lost at the time.

Pitchers

The Guardians are historically outstanding at developing pitchers, and this roster is no exception. Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, and Konnor Pilkington were all drafted by Cleveland. But that doesn't mean the trades didn't give them a boost. Cal Quantrill is the only starter acquired via trade, but the Guardians' eighth-ranked bullpen has been pushed over by a pitcher acquired from the Rangers.

Emmanuel Clase has become one of baseball's eminent closers. He's fourth in MLB in saves with 18 and he has a WHIP of 0.78. In a league where the closer is becoming an increasingly rare find, he's been outstanding. Nearly every other pitcher in the Guardians bullpen was drafted, but Clase has been a difference-maker.

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Revisiting three 'losing' trades for Guardians

The Guardians' roster has largely been filled out by three major trades that shipped off beloved players. For the sake of efficiency, they'll be referred to by the player they're remembered for.

The Francisco Lindor trade

Mets get: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco

Guardians get: Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Isaiah Greene, Josh Wolf

2022 stats

Batting

Lindor is still the cream of the crop in terms of explosiveness and power, but the Guardians did land a middle infield that is either around league average (Rosario) or well above average (Gimenez). Perhaps Gimenez comes back to Earth as time goes on, but for the time being he's putting together an overlooked All-Star-caliber season.

Pitching

Josh Wolf is still in the minors, so there's no one to compare Carrasco's pitching numbers to at the MLB level, but he's become an important starter in the back part of the Mets' rotation. With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer still battling injuries for a competitive Mets team, Carraso's ability to work deep in games has been useful, if inconsistent.

The Corey Kluber trade

Rangers get: Corey Kluber, cash considerations

Guardians get: Emmanuel Clase, Delino DeShields Jr.

2022 stats

Pitching

These two may share a table, but comparing the numbers of a closer and a starter is hardly a perfect science. Regardless, Clase has emerged as one of baseball's best closers. His ERA+ is an absurd 288, meaning he is pitching 188 percent above the average MLB pitcher in even factors.

The Guardians' trade of Kluber to the Rangers was particularly controversial due to how it happened. He was a 20-game winner and had finished third in the quest for his third Cy Young in 2018, but in 2019 he fractured his arm against the Marlins. The Guardians dealt Kluber to the Rangers in 2019 after picking up his 2020 option. From there he pitched just one inning before experiencing shoulder tightness.

While Kluber did come back and throw a no-hitter with the Yankees, he has never returned to the dominant presence Cleveland fans came to know. Clase, meanwhile, looks like one of baseball's brightest young closers.

The Mike Clevinger trade

Padres get: Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen, Matt Waldron

Guardians get: Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Gabriel Arias, Owen Miller, Joey Cantillo

2022 stats

Hitting

Pitching

This trade was arguably the least controversial the Guardians made to offload players, but the results have been tremendous. Naylor, Hedges, and Miller have all become consistent faces in the Guardians lineup, with Naylor and Hedges everyday starters (Hedges is serving a stint on IL at the time of publishing) and Miller being a key utility piece.

Quantrill became a mainstay in the Guardians rotation in 2021 and has started off well in 2022, although his control can waver at times.

Clevinger, meanwhile, missed all of 2021 after needing Tommy John surgery and is starting to find his groove in 2022. He made his first start May 4 against the Guardians, and has not yet gone more than five innings this season. He's having trouble muscling his way into a crowded Padres rotation.

Peppered in with these trades have been some other ones that took longer to come to fruition, such as the three-team deal that sent Trevor Bauer to the Reds and got Cleveland Franmil Reyes. Although Reyes has struggled this season, at his best he's been a 30-home run player for the Guardians.

Why did the Guardians win long-term?

The Guardians really won two of these three trades by dumb luck, and the third is still more of a draw than an outright win. Kluber and Clevinger suffered unfortunate injuries upon departing Cleveland, which could be seen as tremendous foresight by Antonetti but is more likely unfortunate circumstances for the pitchers affected. Lindor, however, is playing well on a very good Mets team looking to make a run a National League pennant. New York is certainly more than content with the players it got in the deal.

The Guardians' minor league system is excellent, and it's been proven time and time again. By targeting prospects, they've been able to focus on their strong suit. That in conjunction with Francona has made the Guardians strong as an organization, which makes these trades more impressive with hindsight.

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What about Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber?

For all of the good young pieces they've acquired, nothing works for the Guardians without their homegrown stars.

Ramirez, of course, re-signed with the Guardians this offseason on a seven-year, $141 million contract, an utter steal. He's played up to that deal and then some. Not only is Ramirez slashing .296/.381/.596 for an OPS+ of 181, he's first in the American League in RBI with 63 and third in MLB behind Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt.

Ramirez is the heartbeat of the Guardians, and he's getting some well-deserved flowers this year.

Bieber, meanwhile, is a (heavy) sleeper candidate for AL Cy Young. Despite a rather unimpressive 3-4 record on the year, he's posting an ERA+ of 126 and a FIP of 2.88. Bieber is a lynchpin of the Guardians staff, and he shows that as their No. 1 starter.

What's next for the Guardians?

The Guardians, surprisingly, have rich-team problems at the deadline. They can approach as buyers or sellers, but it's a difficult tightrope for Antonetti.

There are rumbles Arias -- acquired in the Clevinger trade -- and 2017 pick Tyler Freeman are approaching MLB readiness. The problem? Both are shortstops, and at least one of their shortstops needs to be dealt. If the Braves lock up Dansby Swanson before he hits free agency -- and they absolutely should -- the top two free agents next offseason will be an aging Trea Turner and an aged Didi Gregorius. That gives the Guardians a lot of deadline leverage.

The Guardians should be targeting another starting arm at the deadline to give them length, but that's a given for most teams looking to make a deep run. The bigger issue is at DH. Reyes has been inconsistent, and getting someone who can let Francona slot Josh Naylor in at DH would be helpful.

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The problem is none of the first basemen on the trade block fit the Guardians' M.O. Josh Bell and Jesus Aguilar both only have team control through 2022, making them nonstarters for the Guardians. Trey Mancini would cost more than the Guardians generally give up. That means the Guardians will have to tendency-break if they want to build their roster further and plug a hole or two.

The Guardians have playoff aspirations this year, and they have the means to get there. The AL Central is continuing to struggle, and they've defied expectations so far this year. While far from a "perfect" or "complete" team, Francona and the front office have stayed true to themselves, and it's paid dividends.

The onus will be on them to keep that momentum. There's a lot of season left, and teams won't be sleeping on the Guardians. But a series against the Yankees is the kind of test this team needs. It's hard to know how competitive they truly are until the Guardians are pitted against staunch competition. We'll know more coming out of the weekend.