Five days after throwing the 24th perfect game in MLB history, Yankees' righthander Domingo German is back on the bump, looking to keep his momentum rolling against the Orioles. Despite going 27-up and 27-down against the A's on June 28, German's had an up-and-down '23 campaign, entering his 16th start of the season with an ERA+ of just 91 (100 is league average).
Are prop bettors expecting German to give the Yankees a second consecutive quality start, or are they selling high on the hurler after achieving an improbable feat?
Below, we'll break down how the betting public is approaching German's first start post-perfection by looking at BetMGM's insights along with offering our advice on how to bet on his player prop over/unders for Monday's Yankees-Orioles matchup.
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Yankees vs. Orioles Odds 7/3: Domingo German player prop over/unders
Strikeouts
- OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
- UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-155)
German's strikeout prop is set at a relatively heavily juiced 5.5 (-155) as he opposes an Orioles offense owning the 11th-lowest strikeout rate this season (21.9 percent). The righty punched out nine A's hitters during his perfect game, but Oakland's offense is one of the most strikeout-prone units in all of baseball, owning a 24.6 percent K-rate (26th).
German's had trouble punching out Orioles hitters over 44 previous plate appearances, sporting a subpar 11.4 percent K-rate. Early bettors at BetMGM believe German will have trouble striking out six-plus Orioles hitters, with 99 percent of bets coming in on German's UNDER 5.5 Ks.
Betting advice: Despite the -155 price tag associated priced on UNDER 5.5 Ks, we think German fails to punch out six-plus Orioles hitters. His perfect game was the first time in four starts he went OVER 5.5 Ks, and with a more challenging matchup in store tonight, back the righthander to regress toward his season-long numbers.
Hits Allowed
- OVER 4.5 hits (-165)
- UNDER 4.5 hits (+120)
While he may not strike out six-plus Orioles hitters, German could hold the O's to fewer than five hits. His career strikeout numbers against Baltimore aren't great, but Orioles hitters are batting just .200 over those 44 previous plate appearances. Additionally, Baltimore's offense isn't in particularly strong form, owning a weighted runs created plus of just 78 (22 percent below league average) over the past two weeks.
Additionally, Baltimore is hitting a league-worst .206 over the past two weeks, as offense has been hard to come by for the second-place O's. However, early bettors at BetMGM aren't buying into the O's cold spell. A whopping 99 percent of bets coming on German's OVER hits allowed.
Betting advice: At +120 (implied probability: 45.45 percent), we'll take a more contrarian approach and wager on German to end his night allowing fewer than five hits against an ice-cold O's offense.
MORE MLB BETTING: Best MLB player props 7/3
Earned Runs
- OVER 2.5 runs (-105)
- UNDER 2.5 runs (-135)
In his earned runs allowed market, German's over/under is set at 2.5 with -135 odds to the UNDER. As has been the case for the first two props, early bettors at BetMGM don't think highly of German, with 99 percent of bets coming in on his OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed.
Sure, in German's two starts before throwing a perfect game, he allowed eight and seven earned runs, respectively, but over 15 starts this season, he's allowed three or more earned runs just six times.
Betting advice: Although tonight's game takes place in a more hitter-friendly environment, we haven't been impressed with the Orioles' offensive approach of late. Coinciding with German surrendering fewer than five hits, we think he mitigates damage and holds a struggling Orioles offense in check, going UNDER 2.5 earned runs allowed.
Outs Recorded
- OVER 17.5 outs (+110)
- UNDER 17.5 outs (-140)
The betting market's clearly not expecting German to go the distance tonight, with his outs recorded prop set at 17.5 (-140 juice to the UNDER). Those odds imply there's a greater than 58-percent chance German fails to complete six innings despite German working six-plus innings in eight of 15 starts this season.
There is reason to side with the betting market's assessment of German's leash tonight, as essentially every Yankee reliever is available to pitch tonight. Despite Aaron Boone and company employing a bullpen game in the nightcap of Saturday's doubleheader against the Cardinals, every reliever sans Jimmy Cordero (42 pitches) got Sunday off to heal up.
Gerrit Cole's ability to work six full innings puts the Yankees' bullpen in a favorable position to cover a handful of innings tonight, making it less likely that German goes six full innings. Bettors are in agreement in this market, as well, with 99 percent of bets coming in on German totaling UNDER 17.5 outs.
Betting advice: There's a real chance we see German pulled before facing the O's lineup a third time, so we'll side with the betting public on this one, expecting the Yankees bullpen is cover the team's final 10 defensive outs at minimum. It also doesn't hurt that New York possesses arguably the league's best bullpen entering Monday (2.87 ERA).
