It has been quite the week for Major League Baseball. The Reds continue to surge, winning their 12th straight game on Friday with the help of Elly De La Cruz's cycle in his 15th MLB game. The Angels put up a 25-run onslaught at Coors Field on Saturday. And now we get to close out a packed Sunday slate with the series finale of Astros-Dodgers, one of the most heated rivalries in pro sports.
Today we will go over the odds, best bets, and top props for this Hollywood showdown, a can't-miss primetime affair between two of the past three World Series champions. We'll make our final score prediction, rate our confidence level on the moneyline, spread, and total, and provide our favorite player prop for what should be an awesome ending to a fantastic weekend of baseball.
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Astros at Dodgers: Pitchers, odds, and best bets
- Moneyline: Dodgers -125 | Astros +105
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+155) | Astros +1.5 (-190)
- Total: OVER 8 (-120) | UNDER 8 (+100)
Emerging NL Cy Young candidate Tony Gonsolin (4-2, 2.92 ERA, 43 SO) will take the mound for the Dodgers, while stud rookie flamethrower Hunter Brown (6-4, 3.78, 90 SO) gets the start for the Astros. The Dodgers have won each of the first two games in this three-game series, 3-2 on Friday and 8-7 on Saturday. Los Angeles is now 43-33, ranking third in the NL West. The Astros are 41-36, third in the AL West.
The Dodgers have already won the series, but they won't likely take their foot off the gas tonight with a chance to tie the Giants for second place in the West, 1.5 games behind the Diamondbacks. Speaking of San Francisco, Gonsolin's last start against the Giants turned out to be his worst start of the season. He gave up seven earned runs on six hits and three walks. Gonsolin has allowed three earned runs or fewer in his nine other 2023 outings.
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As for Brown, the rookie hurler has dominated sub-.500 opponents and occasionally unraveled against playoff squads. The Astros got rocked 11-1 by the Mets in his last start, with six runs credited to Brown. He also took Ls to the Blue Jays in early June and Twins in late May. The only wins Houston has enjoyed over Brown's last five starts were against Washington and Oakland, two of the four worst teams in the majors.
The Dodgers have way too many intelligent, professional hitters to lose to a rookie tonight, especially with Houston still missing injured slugger and MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. Brown has a tremendous 27 percent called strike and whiff rate (top 20 in MLB) and his 56.2 percent ground ball rate is also stellar for a rookie. But the outing against the Mets reminds us that he's human, and has trouble limiting hard contact against above-average offenses.
Mookie Betts, J.D. Davidson, and Freddie Freeman are all enjoying awesome seasons for L.A., and the Dodgers have barely missed slugger Max Muncy since he hit the IL. We like this game to go well OVER the projected total of eight, as Gonsolin and Brown are both coming off brutal starts and these offenses combined for 15 runs on Saturday night.
Gonsolin's xERA is 4.00, a far cry from his 2.92 ERA. The Dodgers' bullpen has also been one of the worst in the bigs, clearly missing Kenley Jansen since his departure to Boston. And with both teams hating each other since the Astros beat Los Angeles in the 2017 World Series — and also trying to dig their way out of third place in their respective divisions — we expect a ton of offense this evening.
In the end, we have the Dodgers pulling off the victory in what should be an exciting game from start to finish, bringing out the brooms as the L.A. fans bang the ceremonial trash cans in uproarious delight.
Final score prediction: Dodgers 7, Astros 5. The Dodgers win (-125) and cover the run line (-1.5, +155), and the game goes well OVER the total of eight runs (-120). Our confidence levels: 7/10 on the ML, 6/10 on the RL, 8/10 on the OVER.
Astros at Dodgers: Top BetMGM prop
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman combine for 5+ total bases (+150)
Both Betts and Freeman have been turning it on as the weather gets warmer, and they should capitalize on Brown's tough stretch of hard-hit data. These veteran sluggers read four-seamers, sliders, and curveballs very well, and also hit well in primetime affairs.
A whopping 22 of Betts' 34 extra-base hits have come against righties, and his slash line at home and at night have been far, far better than his numbers away from L.A. and during the day. Similarly, Freeman has 18 doubles and five homers against righties. Put your money on this duo of MVP candidates racking up the total bases against the hard-throwing hurler this evening.
