The Angels went off on Saturday night against the Rockies, plating a franchise-record 25 runs while holding Colorado to just one. It was a complete shellacking, highlighted by a 13-run third inning that also saw Mike Trout, Brandon Drury, and Matt Thaiss hit back-to-back-to-back home runs.
Many bettors will be rushing to sportsbooks to smash the OVER on the Angels' series finale at Coors Field this afternoon. We'll be the party-pooper contrarians betting the UNDER — not because we're betting hipsters or anything, but because all signs point to an underwhelming few hours of offense.
Let's discuss why we're smashing the Angels-Rockies' UNDER of 12.5 runs at -105 — and L.A.'s UNDER of 6.5 runs at -155 — as our best bets of Sunday's MLB slate.
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Why the UNDER in the Angels-Rockies series finale is the best bet
For one, you should never chase runs as a bettor — not after a big inning and certainly not less than a full day after a massive game. A 25-run game is an extreme rarity in Major League Baseball, and it can be physically exhausting for both sides of the beatdown. Looking back at some of the offensive explosions of the 21st century, the teams responsible for big run parades have more often than not struggled to put up a bunch of runs in the following game.
After the Rangers smoked the Orioles 30-3 in August 2007, they lost to the Mariners 9-4 the following day. After the Dodgers put up an 11-run inning against the Braves in the 2020 NLCS, they lost 10-2 to Atlanta the following game. After the Diamondbacks mashed eight homers against the Phillies in June 2019, Arizona lost to Philly 7-4 the next time out.
Psychology could very well play a part in this phenomenon. The team responsible for the onslaught likely develops an irrational confidence going into the following game (the cocky factor), while the team that just got crushed probably has an elevated level of motivation (the revenge factor). Or, maybe it's not mental at all — maybe it's just physical. Squads that just had batting practice for nine innings tend to experience a bit of fatigue the next time out — it's only natural.
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We also must take into consideration that the Angels only averaged 4.8 runs per game entering Saturday (that one 25-run explosion bumped them up to 5.05 per game). Los Angeles had scored 29 total runs across its previous six games, which also happens to average out to 4.8 per game. In the Halos' brief two-game set against the Dodgers earlier this week, they got shut out 2-0 in both games.
This L.A. offense has shown signs of life lately — and Saturday night was a sight for the sore eyes of Angels Nation after a tough loss on Friday night — but that 25-run performance was more of an outlier than anything. Typically, this offense largely depends on Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the latter of whom seems to be in cruise control en route to his second unanimous MVP award.
The Angels are six games above .500, looking primed to finally make the playoffs for the first time in Ohtani's career. However, they're still finding a way to disappoint in nearly every series. As home favorites, L.A. has gone just 15-14. Their home run differential is just +2. They have left the seventh-most runners on base in the majors this season (15.1), and stranded the fourth-most runners in the bigs in away games (15.8).
The Halos have also grounded into the fourth-most double plays (65), and have left the ninth-most runners in scoring position per away game (3.64). So, let's pump the brakes on how this club is emerging as one of the top scoring offenses in the majors. It's one game, folks. Saturday's slugfest marked the first game all month in which Los Angeles even reached double-digit runs.
This is a great opportunity to capitalize on recency bias and buzz. And while Rockies probable pitcher Austin Gomber's 7.25 ERA may look enticing for OVER bettors, it's important to note that he has pitched into the sixth inning and allowed four or fewer runs in two straight starts. Similarly, L.A.'s Tyler Anderson owns a 5.64 ERA on the season, but has allowed four earned runs or fewer in seven of his past nine outings — and pitched at least five full frames in all but one of those starts.
As bettors, we must always look at the big picture and not allow ourselves to fall in love with one game or storyline. The 25-run explosion was cool to watch, sure. But eight of the Angels' past nine games before that went UNDER 12.5 runs. Do you trust this squad to replicate its historic Saturday night performance less than 15 hours later? Or, do you trust the Angels offense to regress back to its average output of 4.8 runs against the underwhelming Rockies, who average 4.4 per game?
We know which way we're leaning. We always say it, but it bears repeating: Bet with your head, not with your heart. Fade the buzz and pound the UNDER of 12.5 runs — or the Halos' UNDER 6.5 runs — ahead of Angels-Rockies on Sunday afternoon. It won't be as easy a W as Los Angeles enjoyed on Saturday, but a win is a win in betting. We don't get style points or bonus bucks if we hit the bet by 10-plus runs — as long as we cash, we're as happy as Mike Trout wearing a samurai helmet.
