Today's 15-game MLB slate is highlighted by the 21-win Orioles venturing to Truist Park to face the first-place Braves, along with the surging Dodgers heading to Petco Park for the first time since their NLDS matchup last October. While we couldn't find valuable SuperDraft props for those matchups, we did find four worthwhile strikeout props elsewhere in the bigs.
For users looking to make an entry via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, we're here to guide you in the right direction. On SuperDraft, users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. Consequently, the more legs you add to your player prop parlay (maximum six legs), the larger your potential payout becomes, but as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep will be challenging.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite strikeout-focused player props on SuperDraft for Friday's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Friday 5/5
1. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers @ Giants - OVER 6 strikeouts
* Entry -four picks (10X) potential payout if all four legs parlayed*
Since Burnes is sporting a career-low 19.7% strikeout rate, it's not surprising to see his strikeout prop sitting a six tonight, but we're expecting the 2021 NL CY Young to regain his form against a Giants' lineup he's owned. In 67 career plate appearances against current Giants hitters, Burnes boasts an elite 49.3% strikeout rate with an impressive expected batting average of just .180.
Additionally, the Giants lead the league in strikeout rate (27.4%), so we'll take our chances on Burnes eclipsing six-plus strikeouts for only the second time in seven starts this year.
2. Rich Hill, SP, Pirates vs. Blue Jays - UNDER 4 strikeouts
Hill's also experiencing a career-low strikeout rate to begin the year (19.4%), but unlike Burnes, we're not sure the seasoned 43-year-old vet can return to his career-long numbers (25.8% strikeout rate). Tonight, Hill goes against a disciplined Blue Jays offense (20.8 K%, 26.8 chase %) looking to bounce back after getting swept by the red-hot Red Sox at Fenway.
Hill sits towards the bottom of the league in whiff rate (16th percentile), chase rate (24th percentile), and strikeout rate (32nd percentile), so we don't think he's able to sit down five-plus Blue Jays. He also owns a subpar 14.1% strikeout rate against current Blue Jays hitters in 78 plate appearances. His low strikeout total bakes all of this in, but we still think he's got a higher probability of punching out three or fewer batters tonight.
3. Hunter Greene, SP, Reds vs. White Sox - OVER 6.5 strikeouts
Greene draws a juicy matchup against a White Sox offense leading the league in chase rate (33.2%), so we expect the fireballer to sit down his fair share of hitters tonight. Greene's yet to face the White Sox in his short tenure in the big leagues, which typically means he has the advantage, at least the first time through the order.
The former No. 2 overall pick sits in the 90th percentile in strikeout rate and 91st percentile in whiff rate, so his swing-and-miss stuff should again play tonight against a lackluster White Sox offense.
4. Brad Keller, SP, Royals vs. Athletics - OVER 4 strikeouts
Most SuperDraft players likely wouldn't consider adding Keller to their player prop parlay, but we think he punches out five-plus Athletic hitters tonight. Keller faces an Oakland offense ranking fifth in strikeout rate (25.1%) and eighth in whiff rate (27.6%) that's also eight percent below league-average in wRC+ (92).
Control can plague Keller (24:24 K:BB rate), but if he can work into the sixth inning, we expect the righthander to punch out five-plus A's. It hasn't happened much this season, but the Royals sit as -155 favorites on the moneyline, and a game in which the Royals win could be one where Keller has success.
