After an eventful Monday night in the big leagues that saw Willson Contreras assume the villain role in his return to Wrigley, Logan Gilbert carry a perfect game into the seventh inning, and a shutout by Mitch Keller, MLB fans and bettors can only hope Tuesday's slate provides half as much action on the diamond.
For DFS players looking to make an entry via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, we're here to guide you in the right direction. On SuperDraft, users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. Consequently, the more legs you add to your player prop parlay (maximum six legs), the larger your potential payout becomes, but as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep will be challenging.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Tuesday's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Tuesday 5/9
1. Will Smith, C, Dodgers @ Brewers - OVER 1.5 bases
* Entry -four picks (10X) potential payout if all four legs parlayed*
After catching all three games this past weekend in San Diego, Smith got to rest his legs during Monday night's series opener against the Brewers. However, he'll be back in the lineup tonight to face lefthander Eric Lauer (3-3, 4.40 ERA, 5.37 FIP), a matchup that could go Smith's way. Per Baseball Savant, Lauer is below league-average in every category to start the season, most notably sitting in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity and the 19th percentile in expected slugging.
On the other hand, Smith sits in the top half of the league in every offensive category sans barrel rate (33rd percentile). It's only a matter of time until one of the league's best offensive catchers sees an increase in barrel rate, especially with Smith sitting in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity. He's ranked within the top half of the league in barrel rate in his first three full seasons and currently dons an impressive .967 OPS. We think he tags Lauer for an extra-base hit to cash his OVER 1.5 total base prop tonight.
2. Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks vs. Marlins - UNDER 4.5 strikeouts
Pfaadt, MLB.com's 51st-ranked prospect, makes his second career start tonight against Miami. Unfortunately, his MLB debut didn't go smoothly, as he allowed seven earned runs in 4.2 innings while serving up four homers. While Pfaadt could have a successful outing tonight against a subpar Marlins offense, we're not sure he punches out five hitters.
He doesn't possess a power fastball (93.5 mph) and often leaves his pitches over the plate. His sweeping slider is his best pitch, but in his debut, he registered just an 18.4-percent whiff rate and a 15.8-percent chase rate. Those numbers aren't sufficient enough to expect the D-backs No. 3 prospect to sit down five-plus Marlins hitters in his second career start.
3. Logan Webb, SP, Giants vs. Nationals - OVER 5 strikeouts
While Webb faces a Nationals lineup sporting MLB's lowest strikeout rate (18.2 percent), we're taking a chance on the Giants' ace recording six-plus strikeouts in a game he likely works at least six innings in. Webb's sporting a career-best 27-percent strikeout rate (71st percentile), and it's not often his strikeout sits as low as it currently is.
Webb's pitched at least six innings in each of his past five starts, and although Washington hasn't struck out much this season, its offense sits near the bottom of the league in weighted runs created plus (86 wRC+) and last in isolated power (.102 ISO). Look for Webb's above-average changeup (34.3 whiff%, 30.2 putaway%), and slider (29.0 whiff%, 21.7 putaway%) to give Nats' hitters fits late in counts.
4. George Kirby, SP, Mariners vs. Rangers - OVER 6 strikeouts
Although he's eclipsed six strikeouts just once in six starts, Kirby's been an innings eater for Seattle to begin '23. Outside of his season debut (4.1 innings pitched), Kirby's worked at least six innings per start over his past five outings, giving him a real chance to work into the seventh tonight against Texas.
Kirby's pristine command (26:3 K:BB rate) helps keep his pitch count low enough to work deep into games. He hasn't enjoyed the same strikeout rate as last season, dipping from 24.5 percent down to 17.6 percent, but he's still in the 83rd percentile in chase rate. Couple that with a respectable 69.6 first-pitch strike percentage, and prop bettors can bank on Kirby's second seven-plus strikeout effort against a Rangers offense ranking 15th in strikeout rate (23.2 percent).
