We're one week out from the MLB trade deadline, and as teams evaluate whether or not to make moves before the Aug. 1 cutoff, SuperDraft player prop users still have a complete offering of props to craft their parlays from. Monday night's nine-game slate headlined by the AL East-leading Orioles facing the Phillies and the first-place Brewers hosting the second-place Reds makes for another entertaining night on the diamond.
With SuperDraft posting its typical slew of total base, strikeout, and fantasy point props, we've pinpointed several we feel yield value, hopefully resulting in some extra DFS cash at the end of the night. Users who sign up for SuperDraft can pick their favorite over/unders via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, bringing them closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes.
SuperDraft users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. Consequently, the more legs you add to your player prop parlay, the larger your potential payout becomes, but as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep is challenging.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Monday night's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Monday 7/24
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Jon Gray, SP, Rangers @ Astros - OVER 4 strikeouts (discount pick)
SuperDraft's lowered Gray's strikeout total to four flat tonight, and although the righthander draws a challenging matchup against an Astros offense owning the fourth-lowest K-rate (20.7), the discounted price is too inviting to pass up on. While he owns just a 19.8-percent K-rate this season, he has generated a 21.7 percent K-rate in 69 previous plate appearances against current Astros hitters.
Despite playing three games at Coors Field last week, Houston's offense is posting a .205 batting average over the past seven days. If Gray can keep the Astros' bats in check, there's a chance he completes six full innings. In games Gray's completed six full frames this season, he's gone OVER four strikeouts in six of 10 starts (including two pushes). Back Gray to take advantage of an Astros offense not in their best form and record five-plus punchouts tonight.
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2. Bryce Harper, DH, Phillies vs. Orioles - OVER 6 fantasy points
While the "Fightins" had trouble generating consistent offense over the past week (.204 average), tonight's matchup against Baltimore righthander Dean Kremer (10-4, 5.05 FIP, .306 BABIP) sets up nicely for Harper and the Phillies. Forget his 10-4 record, Kremer routinely allows his fair share of hard-hit baseballs every fifth day, sitting in the 13th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.4 percent) and the sixth percentile in expected slugging (.503 xSLG).
Kremer's allowed a .302/.365/.547 slash line to lefties this season, which doesn't bode well in his chances of keeping Harper (41.5 percent hard-hit rate) off base tonight. While his power numbers aren't at the level that DFS players are accustomed to (four HRs, .404 SLG), we could see Harper run into his fifth long ball of the season, ending his night scoring north of 6.5 fantasy points. It also doesn't hurt that winds are blowing out 10 miles per hour to center field at Citizens Bank Park tonight.
3. Kenta Maeda, SP, Twins vs. Mariners - OVER 6 strikeouts
Maeda faces an inconsistent Mariners offense for the second time in a week, looking to replicate his nine-strikeout effort from this past Wednesday night (6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB). With Seattle owning the third-highest K-rate over the past two weeks (28.9 percent), Maeda's in a favorable spot to go OVER six strikeouts for a fourth time in his past six outings.
Maeda faced the minimum through five innings, punching out seven Mariners' hitters on Wednesday night, as his entire five-pitch arsenal was working. Maeda generated a 60-percent whiff rate on his splitter (12 swings, 20 whiffs) and ended the night with an impressive 33 percent whiff rate. Despite allowing just three hits over 6.1 innings, Maeda threw just 80 pitches, and if he has a longer leash tonight, he's in an even better spot to rack up seven-plus Ks.
4. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF, Padres vs. Pirates - OVER 7.5 fantasy points
Tatis Jr. and the Padres' offense are in line for a strong offensive night against Pirates' rookie Quinn Priester, who's coming off a rocky start in his MLB debut (5.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K). Priester surrendered plenty of contact against the Guardians, as 22 balls were put into play, as Priester ended the night recording only two strikeouts with a sub-par 19-percent whiff rate.
Tatis Jr. is in a favorable spot to pick up where the Guardians' offense left off against Priester, as San Diego's right fielder sits in the 97th percentile in expected batting average (.302) while also sporting a .523 xSLG (93rd percentile). He's picking up the baseball nicely at Petco Park this season, hitting .333 with a .996 OPS in 147 at-bats. Hopefully, that sets the superstar outfielder up for an eight-plus fantasy point showing.
