After a sleepy Thursday, MLB heads into the weekend with a fully loaded Friday night slate. The evening opens with Guardians at Rays and Yankees at Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET and concludes with Rangers at Giants at 10:15. We've selected four high-value SuperDraft over/under player props to hopefully make us some weekend parlay cash.
We're looking to rebound after last night's bad beat, in which we nailed three out of four over/under props but failed to hit Bryce Harper's OVER of 6.5 fantasy points. Harper drew a walk in his first at-bat, failed to reach base in his second AB, and then left the game after the fourth inning due to back spasms. Just our luck! Hopefully, Harper is OK because those Phillies have been grooving.
We hope we can start grooving again tonight (Papa needs a new pair of Birkenstocks!). Enough of these near-wins -- let's sweep all four picks this evening and rejuvenate our player prop bankroll. It looks like another mostly underwhelming night of probable pitchers, so offense will once again reign supreme in our parlay game. Fingers crossed for no Friday night back spasms!
Sign up for SuperDraft to pick your favorite over/unders via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, bringing you closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes. Win 3X the amount wagered if your two-legged player prop parlay hits, and watch your potential payout rise with each additional leg you pile onto your parlay.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Monday night's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Friday 8/11
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees at Marlins — UNDER 7.5 fantasy points (4/5 confidence)
Wait, our top hitter prop is an Aaron Judge fade? As Frances McDormand would say in Fargo, "you betcha." Judge has stunk against lefthanded pitching this year with a brutal .194 batting average and .691 OPS (compared to .303 and 1.122 against righties). In 43 plate appearances against southpaws, the reigning AL MVP has just two homers and four total RBIs.
Meanwhile, Jesús Luzardo has enjoyed a superb season with the Marlins. He has eight wins, a 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). Sure, he's typically better against lefthanded batters than righties, but between Luzardo's strong campaign and Judge's abysmal numbers vs. lefties, we're all over the UNDER here.
If you're not familiar with how fantasy points work, here's the skinny:
| Stat | Pts per |
| Singles | 2 |
| Doubles | 4 |
| Triples | 6 |
| Home Runs | 8 |
| RBIs | 2 |
| Runs | 2 |
| Hitter Walks | 2 |
| Stolen Bases | 3 |
| Hit By Pitch | 2 |
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
2. Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies vs. Twins — OVER 1.5 bases (4/5 confidence)
Castellanos has been on a serious heater this month. He's riding an 11-game hitting streak and has six home runs in 10 August games. Three of those six homers have come in the past two contests! The baseball looks like a beachball to this guy right now, making it a perfect time to face Twins veteran journeyman Dallas Keuchel.
Castellanos has obliterated Keuchel throughout his career, maintaining a .389/.421/.611 slash line against him in 18 head-to-head meetings. Of his seven hits against the 35-year-old southpaw, Castellanos has a double, a homer, and five singles.
The only thing stopping us from cashing here is walks, but Keuchel, who walked just two batters last time out against Arizona, has only issued Castellanos one free pass in their prior meetings. He typically throws strikes, which is just the kind of pitcher Castellanos tees off against.
3. Blake Snell, SP, Padres at Diamondbacks — OVER 6.5 strikeouts (3.5/5 confidence)
The one pitcher I love this evening is Snellzilla, who has been a strikeout machine all season. The burly lefty has sat down 164 hitters by way of the K, maintaining a nearly 12 K/9 clip. He sits in the 96th percentile of the majors in whiff rate, and he should feast on a Diamondbacks lineup that has stumbled through the second half of the season.
Snell has 39 career strikeouts of current D-backs hitters, with Arizona first baseman Christian Walker the most bruised-and-battered Snellzilla victim. In 18 career at-bats against the Padres ace, Walker has struck out a whopping 12 times. Snell might reach seven Ks by the fifth inning.
4. Manny Machado, 3B, Padres at Diamondbacks — UNDER 1.5 bases (3/5 confidence)
Machado has been quietly reeling at the plate recently, and he truly hasn't seemed like his dominant self all season. He seems to complain to umpires more than he makes impactful offensive plays, and the new rules like the pitch clock and disengagements have really seemed to mess with his rhythm.
Machado has gone hitless in his past four games, and he only has one extra-base hit since July 27. He's also just 2-of-11 lifetime against Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson, who has three career strikeouts against the All-Star third baseman. It's not every day we take the UNDER on both Aaron Judge and Manny Machado, but in this case, we have enough data to suggest that those are the appropriate betting plays in this Friday night parlay.
