Before the season began, pretty much everyone had the Braves and Mets pegged as World Series contenders. Four months into the 2023 MLB season, Atlanta sits as a heavy favorite to win it all (+325 on BetMGM), while the Mets have plummeted to +100000.
These crooked numbers could separate even more after these clubs meet in their series finale at Citi Field tonight, with the Braves looking to close up a four-game sweep (7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN). And even with promising Mets rookie ace Kodai Senga on the mound, the thought of putting any kind of wager on New York right now seems futile.
The best avenue for betting this game is to assemble a Braves-Mets player prop parlay on SuperDraft. We're doing just that, putting a modest $10 investment into a four-prop parlay with a chance to close out the weekend with a $100 victory.
Sign up for SuperDraft to pick your favorite over/unders via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, bringing you closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes. Win 3X the amount wagered if your two-legged player prop parlay hits, and watch your potential payout rise with each additional leg you pile onto your parlay.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Braves-Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best Braves-Mets prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Sunday Night Baseball
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Braves — OVER 1.5 bases
Acuña OVER bets have accounted for a ton of my player prop betting success this season, and we have no reservations with picking the MVP frontrunner to gather two or more bases this evening against rookie Mets pitcher Kodai Senga. Acuña has a massive .344 average against right-handed pitchers this season, with an even more titanic 1.010 OPS.
The stud right fielder has maintained a .357 average over the past two weeks, with six of his 20 hits in that span going for extra bases. Meanwhile, Senga has surrendered a whopping 18 hits over his past two starts, a home game versus the Cubs and a road contest against the Royals.
The only thing keeping us from victory on this prop is three walks, something we have seen happen to stud hitters plenty over the past couple weeks. But Senga's walk rate on the season is just 11.4 percent, and even in his struggles over the past two outings, he has failed to rack up more than two bases on balls. The kid throws strikes, which benefits Acuña in a major way. Smash the OVER and enjoy what should be an early green.
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2. Kodai Senga, SP, Mets — UNDER 6 strikeouts
Senga has enjoyed a solid rookie season, with an 8-6 record, a 3.24 ERA, and 11 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he has failed to rack up many Ks recently, maxing out at six his last two starts, five against the Nationals on July 27, and just three at Fenway on July 21.
It's entirely possible Senga has hit a bit of a rookie wall — or maybe the Mets' slump is just affecting the Japanese native's confidence and morale. His first-pitch strike rate, swinging strike rate, and called strike rate are all way down since the All-Star break, and now he faces one of the most talented and disciplined lineups in the majors.
The Braves rank in the bottom 10 of the big-leagues in strikeouts per game (8.15), and have hovered just over six strikeouts per game in the first three games of this series. They'll be prepared for Senga's pitch mix tonight, and we would be shocked to see this star-studded offense go down by way of the K more than a handful of times versus the rookie.
3. Michael Harris II, OF, Braves — OVER 0.5 singles
Harris often gets overlooked within this stellar Braves lineup, but the 2022 Rookie of the Year remains as solid a No. 9 batter as they come. And tonight's matchup against Senga benefits him, as he's hitting .293 against right-handed pitchers this season.
Of Harris's 72 hits against righties this season, 48 of them have been singles (66.6%). That's due in large part to his blistering speed and ability to leg out infield grounders (his sprint speed sits in the 89th percentile of the majors). He's also tremendous at hitting the ball to gaps in the infield and blooping it into shallow parts of the outfield. We're smashing the OVER here and rooting for 22-year-old to produce at least one single for us.
4. Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets — OVER 0.5 singles
Lindor has been torrid over the past couple weeks, with 18 hits in his past 13 games. He's slashing .375/.457/.600 over the past 11 games, with 10 singles, three doubles, and two home runs. We were tempted to pick his OVER of 1.5 total bases, but ultimately decided that OVER 0.5 singles makes more sense for Lindor in this situation.
Since being traded from the Rays to the Braves at the deadline, Chirinos has surrendered 19 hits 13.2 innings. Twelve of those 19 hits were singles (70.5%), and he has maintained an encouraging 33.3 percent hard-hit rate. When Chirinos is at his best, he's getting a ton of ground ball outs (53.3% since becoming a Brave). Here's betting Lindor will have at least one seeing-eye ground ball single this evening.
