Happy Friday, everyone! With a nearly full MLB slate on the horizon this evening, we can't resist betting on some SuperDraft player props to start the weekend off with some winnings. After analyzing all the matchups and researching split stats and betting data, we're feeling pretty confident in the four props we have pinpointed as value bets.
One of our tried-and-true strategies in over/under prop betting is to find the most promising unders to attack. All too often, bettors single out the overs and end up screwing themselves because they would rather root for more hits, home runs, or strikeouts. Oddsmakers set totals at a certain amount for a reason, and it's often easier to cash on a strikeout under from a pitcher struggling to get whiffs than it is to hit an over from one of the game's hottest aces.
The four games we're attacking this evening include Mariners-Orioles at Camden Yards, Pirates-Marline in Miami, Angels-Rockies at Coors Field, and Blue Jays-Athletics in Oakland. We picked a couple of studs in Shohei Ohtani and Bo Bichette, while also predicting a couple of strikeout duds from scheduled starting pitchers who have fared poorly in the K department.
On SuperDraft, users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. And the more legs you add to your player prop parlay (maximum eight legs), the larger your potential payout becomes. However, as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep will be challenging.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Friday night's MLB slate. You don't necessarily need to parlay all four picks together — you could opt instead to make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability — but we're swinging for the fences with a four-leg prop.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Friday 6/23
*Four-pick parlay entry pays out at 10X the stake*
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Angels @ Rockies — UNDER 1.5 bases
Ohtani has been lighting the world on fire this season (what else is new?), and he looks like as much of a lock to win AL MVP as we've ever seen in June. The Japanese sensation has an MLB-leading 24 home runs, 58 RBIs, .616 slugging percentage, and .993 OPS. Now he gets to go into Coors Field and face Kyle Freeland, who allowed seven runs on nine hits his last time out against the Braves. So, he's a lock to rack up two total bases, right?
Wrong. Ohtani actually fares much worse against southpaws, hitting just .244 with 19 total hits, three doubles, and six homers in 91 plate appearances. He has also hit the skids over the past week, batting just .167 with three total hits over his past 22 plate appearances. The whole betting world would probably bet Showtime's OVER here, but we're happy to bet the contrarian UNDER.
2. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays vs. Athletics — OVER 1.5 bases
Now here's an OVER we can get behind. Bichette has been cranking this season, slashing .317/.347/.505 and riding an eight-game hitting streak. He has 24 extra-base hits against righties, so a home matchup with James Kaprielian and his 6.28 ERA/1.64 WHIP probably has the stud shortstop licking his chops. Smash the OVER here and enjoy what should be another hit parade for Bichette and the Blue Jays.
3. Logan Gilbert, Mariners @ Orioles — UNDER 4.5 strikeouts
Bettors always seem to fall for strikeout OVER, but we're doing our due diligence and taking the path less traveled with the UNDER here. Gilbert has a strong 1.07 WHIP on the season, but he's faltered a bit as of late. He managed just three innings against the division-rival Angels two weeks ago, and he looked pretty underwhelming against a poor White Sox offense in his last start.
The most important part of those two duds is that he failed to eclipse three strikeouts in each of them. The Orioles strike out at the eighth-lowest rate in the majors, and they're even better at making contact at Camden Yards. Bet Gilbert to strike out four of fewer on Friday night.
4. Jesus Luzardo, Marlins vs. Pirates — UNDER 6 strikeouts
Another strikeout total we don't see going OVER, Luzardo's line at six seems overly inflated. He topped out at five Ks in Washington his last time out, and he couldn't eclipse three Ks during the shellacking he took in Seattle nine days ago. The Pirates' offense has been pretty bad over the past few weeks, but they still rank among the bottom-10 MLB teams in strikeouts. We're going UNDER here and hoping a five-K or fewer effort is the cherry on top of our Friday night parlay.
