We have a stacked 15-game Friday MLB slate to kick off Memorial Day weekend, headlined by the surging Orioles hosting the AL West-leading Rangers and the 31-20 Dodgers looking to make a dent in the Rays' 24-5 record inside Tropicana Field.
Per usual, SuperDraft's released its slew of total base and strikeout props for today's MLB slate, and we're trying our hand at finding valuable props to boost your win probability. Users who sign up for SuperDraft can pick their favorite over/unders via SuperDraft's Fantasy Props feature, bringing them closer to the action while having a chance to win cash prizes.
SuperDraft users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. Consequently, the more legs you add to your player prop parlay (maximum six legs), the larger your potential payout becomes, but as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep will be challenging.
Below, we'll break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Friday night's MLB slate. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through.
Best MLB prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Friday 5/26
* Entry-four picks (10X) potential payout if all four legs parlayed*
1. George Kirby, SP, Mariners vs. Pirates - OVER 5.5 strikeouts
Kirby's ability to work deep into games gives him a chance to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts against a Pirates offense struggling the past month. Over his past five outings, he's worked an average of 7.04 innings per start, going OVER 5.5 strikeouts four times.
His elite command (99th percentile in walk rate) helps keep his pitch count low and eat innings. Tonight, he'll face a Pirates offense ranking 27th in wRC+ the past month (85 wRC+) while racking up the 10th-highest strikeout rate (22.9%). If Kirby's able to pitch into the seventh, he'll be in solid shape to go OVER 5.5 strikeouts.
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2. James Kaprielian, SP, Athletics vs. Astros - UNDER 4 strikeouts
Kaprielian makes his third start since being recalled following a rough opening to the '23 season that saw him rack up a 12.94 ERA. Tonight, he draws a tough matchup against a Houston offense ranking in the bottom-third of the league in strikeout rate over the past month (21.4 percent). He's been more effective in his first two starts since being recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas, allowing four earned runs in 12 innings pitched, but he still sits in the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate and 15th percentile in xSLG.
Kaprielian's most recent start came against the Astros this past Sunday, and the righthander did his job, working five innings, allowing one run on three hits while striking out five. Although he went OVER four strikeouts in that outing, we think the Astros offense fares better this go-around getting to face him for a second time in five days.
3. Yordan Alvarez, LF, Astros @ Athletics - OVER 1.5 bases
Alvarez could be one of the Houston hitters who takes advantage of Kaprielian's propensity to allow hard contact, resulting in him totaling at least two-plus bases from hits tonight. He always puts together strong at-bats and sits atop the league in myriad advanced metrics, most notably xSLG (98th percentile) and barrel rate (96th percentile).
He's only had six career at-bats against Kaprielian, recording one hit, but he's mashing against fastballs -- Kaprielian's most utilized pitch (59 percent) -- racking up a .319 batting average with a .626 slugging percentage against heaters this season. Kaprielian better not leave a fastball middle-middle, otherwise, Alvarez will record four total bases in one at-bat alone.
4. Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles vs. Rangers - OVER 5.5 strikeouts
Rodriguez has shown flashes of why he's the O's top pitching prospect, limiting the league-leading Rays offense to two runs in 5.2 innings on May 9, but he's also shown some growing pains in year one, surrendering nine hits and eight earned runs to the Angels five days later. Tonight, he'll do battle against a relatively surprising Rangers offense that's complied a 118 wRC+ the past month.
That day, Rodriguez fanned five Rangers hitters in five innings, but I think he one-ups that number in his second career start against Texas. Texas has been an above-average offense the past month, but it's striking out at the eighth-highest clip (23.8 strikeout percentage). Rodriguez sits in the 70th percentile in strikeout rate, and his ability to pair his 97-mph four-seamer with an 83-mph changeup registering a 28.9-percent whiff rate can keep the Rangers lineup off balance enough to punch out six-plus hitters.
