Baseball Hall of Fame 2017: Comparing first-time Hall voters to returning Hall voters

Ryan Fagan

Baseball Hall of Fame 2017: Comparing first-time Hall voters to returning Hall voters image

One of the more fascinating elements of Ryan Thibodaux’s invaluable Hall of Fame tracker is the percentage of votes each player on the ballot received from first-time voters. 

The newbie sample size is small (just 14 first-timers are on the tracker), so let’s not jump to any conclusions as to the future of Hall of Fame voting. I won’t use the word “trend” or “momentum” or anything like that. Still, looking through the totals, it’s interesting to see where the largest gaps are between the 14 newbies — I’m one of those 14 , by the way — and the returning voters. 

I can’t speak for the other 13 voters, of course, so I’ll just offer my thoughts on each player. The numbers are updated as of 4 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, with 240 total ballots on the tracker. I'll update after all the ballots are revealed on BBWAA.com.

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Jeff Bagwell

Newbie percentage: 100 percent
Overall percentage: 88.2 percent
Thoughts: You’ll see PED connections aren’t much of a stumbling block for first-time voters. Wrote a lot about my personal views on the topic here and here . Bagwell was an easy choice. 

Barry Bonds

Newbie percentage: 92.9 percent
Overall percentage: 64.2 percent
Thoughts: Thirteen of the 14 first-timers voted for Bonds and Clemens. They're two of MLB's historically elite producers, and they should be in.

Roger Clemens

Newbie percentage: 92.9 percent
Overall percentage: 63.4 percent
Thoughts: See above. 

Vladimir Guerrero

Newbie percentage: 64.3 percent
Overall percentage: 72.0 percent
Thoughts: My final choice came down to Guerrero or Larry Walker. Guerrero has the better traditional stats, Walker has the better advanced metrics (he was a better base runner/defender). I went with Guerrero, for a large part because he was, at the time I submitted my ballot, right near the 75 percent line and I hoped my vote pushed him over the edge.

Trevor Hoffman

Newbie percentage: 57.1 percent
Overall percentage: 72.8 percent
Thoughts: Hoffman’s case is built on his longevity and his 601 saves, a “traditional” counting stat that has been around in its current form since the early 1970s. To me, that wasn’t enough to put him on my ballot, not when we only get 10 votes. Guess I wasn’t alone. 

Jeff Kent

Newbie percentage: 0.0 percent
Overall percentage: 16.7 percent
Thoughts: Kent’s numbers compare very favorably to other second basemen in the Hall, but not favorably to other hitters on this ballot. To me, positional favorability is low on my priority list.  

Edgar Martinez

Newbie percentage: 71.4 percent
Overall percentage: 65.9 percent
Thoughts: If Edgar was just a really, really good DH (like Harold Baines, for example), he wouldn’t have made the cut over the other guys on the ballot. But he’s arguably the best DH of all time, so he’s an easy choice.

MORE: Ryan Fagan explains his Hall of Fame ballot 

Fred McGriff

Newbie percentage: 14.3 percent
Overall percentage: 16.3 percent
Thoughts: Loved watching McGriff play. In a strange way, he’s a victim of the PED era. Because guys like Bonds and Clemens and Bagwell (and Piazza) took so long to get elected, the ballot has gotten way too crowded and McGriff gets pushed further back than he deserves. 

Mike Mussina

Newbie percentage: 78.6 percent
Overall percentage: 58.9 percent
Thoughts: All signs seem to point to Mussina being the next poster-child for the analytical movement that helped get Bert Blyleven into the Hall, and boosted the numbers for Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez. Their resumes are all excellent, despite a lack of individual awards (Cy Youngs, MVPs, etc). If you’re a Mussina fan, this vote is a pretty encouraging sign. 

Jorge Posada

Newbie percentage: 0.0 percent
Overall percentage: 4.1 percent
Thoughts: The ballot is just so very crowded. Possible that the votes for Posada came from veteran writers who recognized the importance of keeping him above the magical 5 percent mark that would keep him on the ballot. That makes sense. He’s too good to drop off the first time. 

Tim Raines

Newbie percentage: 100.0 percent
Overall percentage: 88.6 percent
Thoughts: He should have been in long ago. Easy choice. 

Manny Ramirez

Newbie percentage: 42.9 percent
Overall percentage: 24.4 percent
Thoughts: For voters who have faced the Bonds/Clemens PED dilemma for years, Manny’s two actual suspensions made it easy to leave him off their ballot. Personally, as I wrote about extensively here , I don’t think there should be a distinction. 

Ivan Rodriguez

Newbie percentage: 92.9 percent
Overall percentage: 79.3 percent
Thoughts: This certainly seems like a PED thing, doesn’t it? On the surface, Pudge is a no-doubter with his hitting, glove-work and throwing arm. 

Curt Schilling

Newbie percentage: 78.6 percent
Overall percentage: 51.2 percent
Thoughts: Looks like his overall percentage is going to drop (it was 58.5 percent last year), despite strong numbers from the first-timers. 

Gary Sheffield

Newbie percentage: 7.1 percent
Overall percentage: 11.8 percent
Thoughts: This is only Sheffield’s third time on the ballot. I believe his support will grow, especially if the ballot hopefully starts clearing up with large Hall classes. But now, it’s just hard for anyone to put him in the top 10. 

Lee Smith

Newbie percentage: 28.6 percent
Overall percentage: 30.5 percent
Thoughts: The more I looked at Smith’s case compared to Hoffman and Billy Wagner’s , the more I considered voting for him. I decided that, with this group of qualified candidates, I couldn’t put a closer in over a full-time position player/starting pitcher. But Smith might have gotten my vote if I went with a closer.  

Sammy Sosa

Newbie percentage: 21.4 percent
Overall percentage: 9.3 percent
Thoughts: If you’re going to vote for Bonds/Clemens/Manny, you HAVE to consider Sosa. I considered him, but he didn't make my top 10.

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Billy Wagner

Newbie percentage: 14.3 percent
Overall percentage: 10.6 percent
Thoughts: Wagner had a shorter career than Hoffman, but was more dominant. A higher percentage of first-time voters valued that than returning voters. 

Larry Walker

Newbie percentage: 42.9 percent
Overall percentage: 22.8 percent
Thoughts: As I mentioned with Guerrero, Walker’s analytical numbers (specifically WAR and JAWS) are strong. Walker came closer to making my top 10 than I expected before starting the process of researching each candidate’s case. 

Ryan Fagan