In July, the Baseball Hall of Fame revamped its process for voting on veteran candidates, creating four committees based on era. On Monday, the first ballot dropped for the newly formed Today’s Game Committee, which will consider candidates who made their greatest contribution to baseball between 1988 and 2001. Results for committee voting will be released on Dec. 5. What are the odds that each candidate gets inducted? Here’s a breakdown of the ballot.
Bud Selig
Chances of being inducted this year: 90 percent
Why he could get in: Love him or hate him — and chances are, you weren’t terribly fond of him — Bud Selig might be the best commissioner in baseball history. Annual revenues for the sport went from $2 billion to $9 billion under his watch while the majors added four teams. Sure, he also presided over a strike, cancelled World Series, and the Steroid Era and once wrote to a fan that he considered Abner Doubleday baseball’s true founder. But other commissioners have done far worse.
MORE: The 25 worst Hall of Fame selections ever
Working against him: Executives sometimes take years to get in Cooperstown after their tenure ends. Commissioners Happy Chandler and Bowie Kuhn each were enshrined more than 20 years after they finished.
John Schuerholz
Chances of being inducted this year: 60 percent
Why he could get in: The spate of Hall of Fame rule changes in July included that executives over 70 can be immediately enshrined even if they’re still working in baseball. This change might have been made with an eye on 76-year-old Schuerholz, who built World Series champions in 1985 with the Kansas City Royals and 1995 with the Braves.
Working against him: General managers rarely get honored by the Hall of Fame. Forgotten standout GMs like Bob Howsam and Harry Dalton are still on the outside looking in.
Mark McGwire
Chances of being inducted this year: 50 percent
Why he could get in: There seems to be a movement among the baseball establishment to offer amnesty for the Steroid Era. Rob Manfred suggested Sunday that anyone who tested positive in 2003 shouldn’t be kept out of Cooperstown. Tony La Russa has called for McGwire’s induction. Former Houston Astros manager Larry Dierker told Sporting News last November that to not induct a player over possible steroid use would be to not induct an entire era.
Working against him: Twelve of the 16 members of the Today’s Game Committee must vote for McGwire for him to get in Cooperstown. It only takes five people on that committee to still be upset about steroids to sink Big Mac this year.
George Steinbrenner
Chances of being inducted this year: 50 percent
Why he could get in: The iconoclastic, controversial Steinbrenner rebuilt the Yankees in the 1970s and came to define his era of owner, willing to win at all costs.
Working against him: The Today’s Game Committee is comprised of retired players, veteran executives, writers, and historians. How many sympathetic voters will Steinbrenner have in this group?
Will Clark
Chances of being inducted this year: 40 percent
Why he could get in: Simply put, he’s better than a number of first basemen already in Cooperstown. His 137 OPS+ is better than nine Hall of Fame first basemen. Playing much of his career at Candlestick Park before the offensive explosion of the 1990s, Clark still managed a .303 lifetime batting average.
Working against him: A number of factors could hurt Clark’s case, including that he retired at 36 and had underwhelming power numbers, at least by the standards Cooperstown seems to sometimes require for first basemen.
Orel Hershiser
Chances of being inducted this year: 30 percent
Why he could get in: That 1988 season was a thing of beauty, as was Hershiser’s 1985 season where he went 19-3 with a 2.03 ERA. Overall, for the 1980s, he was 98-64 with a 2.69 ERA and 132 ERA+.
Working against him: After missing most of the 1990 season, Hershiser emerged a different pitcher, managing a 4.17 ERA for the 1990s. While more runs were scored in that decade, his 100 ERA+ for the ‘90s means that he was roughly average adjusting for his ballpark and era.
Harold Baines
Chances of being inducted this year: 25 percent
Why he could get in: David Ortiz’s triumphant final season could have a ripple effect for other DHs. Edgar Martinez is almost certain to see a bump in Hall of Fame votes from the writers in a few months. Meanwhile, the Today’s Game Committee could honor one of the next-best DHs in baseball history. Before Papi, or Edgar, there was Harold. He finished with 2,866 hits to boot.
Working against him: By sabermetrics, Baines was almost a below-average player. Baines is also something of a test case for a Hall of Fame committee, which has seemingly never considered such a long-term DH.
Albert Belle
Chances of being inducted this year: 20 percent
Why he could get in: Belle rates as one of the very best hitters in baseball history not in Cooperstown, averaging 40 home runs and 130 RBIs per 162 games during his career. His 144 OPS+ is seventh-best for all hitters since 1920 who aren’t enshrined, according to the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index tool.
Working against him: Some monumental character issues, coupled with Belle’s career ending at 33 make him a long-shot this year. Neither thing could sink Belle’s bid in the long-run. Hack Wilson drank himself out of the big leagues, rates a fairly close comparison to Belle by sabermetrics, and got in the Hall of Fame. It just took several decades.
Davey Johnson and Lou Piniella
Chances of being inducted this year: 15 percent for Johnson and 10 percent for Piniella
Why they could get in: Two of the finest managers of the recent generation, Piniella and Johnson boast two World Series titles and more than 3,000 wins between the two of them. Johnson has the better winning percentage so he gets the slight edge here, though Piniella tacked on some losses with his willingness to manage his hometown Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Working against them: There are just 23 managers in the Hall of Fame as of this writing. If a manager’s had the success of La Russa or Joe Torre, they make it in easily. Johnson and Piniella, while both fine managers, didn’t wind up with anywhere near the accolades of either of those men. They might get in at some point, but it could take awhile.
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