When Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens each debuted on the writers’ ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2013, drawing roughly 35 percent of the vote apiece, a casual observer could have been forgiven for thinking it meant the two would never be enshrined.
Anyone who’s studied voting history for Cooperstown comprehensively might have known that the showing Bonds and Clemens each had their first year on the ballot meant they’d almost certainly get in the Hall of Fame at some point.
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Since 1936, 151 of the 171 players who’ve drawn at least 35 percent of the Hall of Fame vote from the Baseball Writers' Association of America on at least one occasion are now in Cooperstown, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Looked at another way, Bonds and Clemens have an 88.3 percent chance of eventually going in the Hall of Fame. Excluding the nine players currently on the ballot who’ve topped 35 percent thus far with the BBWAA, Bonds’ and Clemens’ chances jump to 93.2 percent.
It’s probably not a question of whether Bonds and Clemens are going in but when. Could it happen this year with the BBWAA? When the Today’s Game Committee voted a couple of weeks ago to enshrine former Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig, who arguably turned a blind eye to the game’s steroid problem in the late 1990s, people such as former BBWAA president and longtime San Francisco Chronicle writer Susan Slusser weighed in:
Senseless to keep steroid guys out when the enablers are in Hall of Fame. I now will hold my nose and vote for players I believe cheated.
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) December 4, 2016
Others have possibly taken heed and thrown support to Bonds and Clemens, two of the most controversial candidates in Hall of Fame history. Through 66 known ballots on Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker of BBWAA members who announced their votes publicly, Bonds and Clemens each had 71 percent of the vote through Monday evening, just shy of the 75 percent they need to get in from the writers.
Chances that Bonds and Clemens will get in the Hall of Fame at some point: 90 percent
Chances it will happen this year: 20 percent
Why: Thibodaux’s tracker tends to skew high early in the voting, with the same writers eager to get their votes in early also more likely to be forgiving on the possible use of performance-enhancing drugs. Older writers who prefer to release their votes later or not at all aren’t as bullish. In other words, look for Clemens’ and Bonds’ vote totals to regress somewhat by the time the Hall of Fame announces results of voting for the 2017 election in mid-January. Bonds and Clemens should finish around 50 percent each, give or take a few percentage points.
But that also makes their induction from the writers at least possible, if not likely to happen.
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Per Hall of Fame voting rules, Clemens and Bonds each get 10 years on the ballot, provided they don’t fall below 5 percent of the vote. In their fifth year on the ballot, with steady increases the past three years, and approaching 50 percent, Bonds and Clemens probably don’t have to worry about getting 5-percented.
The question is whether they can garner the necessary 25 percent to get in through the writers in their remaining years after this one on the ballot. This is no sure thing.
On one hand, Hall of Fame voting history is filled with players who start out at 20, 30, and 40 percent of the vote and eventually make their way to the necessary 75 percent with the writers. Some writers hone in on candidates as they gain more and more momentum. Other writers become more willing to vote for a player as it becomes clear it won’t be a wasted vote. Perhaps some writers worry about public ridicule if they vote against popular sentiment. Others probably just like being right.
Bonds and Clemens might face tough ballots the next few years. Chipper Jones and Jim Thome will both be new to the ballot next year. Mariano Rivera debuts on the 2019 ballot. Derek Jeter will be on in 2020. That said, Bonds and Clemens have faced tough competition the past few years and made steady progress. They will probably keep doing more of the same.
The big thing holding Bonds and Clemens back on the writers' ballot is the Hall’s decision in 2014 to cut player eligibility with the BBWAA from 15 years to 10. Under the old system, Bonds and Clemens would pretty much be shoe-ins to pick up the remaining 25 percent they each need over the next decade. In five years, however, they might be at 70 percent. That won’t be enough.
It’s not to say that players who would’ve taken longer haven’t seen an extra boost over the past few years with sudden urgency. Tim Raines has gone from 46.1 percent in 2014 to looking like he will probably draw the necessary 75 percent in this year, his final time on the writers' ballot. Mike Mussina and Edgar Martinez also seem to be rising up quicker than they would under the old system. But Raines, Mussina and Martinez are all much more likeable than Bonds and Clemens, if not quite the players they were. No one’s holding their nose to cast a vote for them.
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The good news for Bonds and Clemens, however, is that the BBWAA isn’t the final arbiter of their chances for Cooperstown. There are a lot of veteran players and managers willing to forgive possible steroid use in baseball, from Tony La Russa to Larry Dierker. People like these often make up a good chunk of 16-man Hall of Fame committees.
Who knows? It might take Bonds and Clemens five or 10 tries in front of the Today’s Game Committee (or whatever the "veterans committee" is calling itself in a decade or two) before they get in. Still, there’s no statute of limitations with Hall of Fame committees, at least under current rules. Players can be considered as many times as necessary.
If history is any judge, there’s a better than 90 percent chance that at some point Bonds and Clemens will get the votes they need.