Can Orioles bank on postseason success with fast start?

Matthew VanTryon

Can Orioles bank on postseason success with fast start? image

The Orioles began their season with a less than 12 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com's projections. After a surprising 7-0 start (the run ended Wednesday night in Boston), expectations are much higher for a team that finished 12 games out of first place last season.

While it’s a bit early to start ordering champagne and planning parade routes, it is worth looking at how teams in the recent past have fared after starting the season in a similar fashion. Since 1990, six other clubs have gone 7-0. We examined how each team performed after the hot start, what led to the success, and whether it had what it took to win in October.

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1990 Reds (91-71, World Series champions)

Of all the teams in this select group, this club — the last Cincinnati team to win the World Series — was the most well-rounded. While most of these teams rode one facet of the game to success, the Reds could do everything well.

They led the majors with a .265 team batting average and ranked in the top five in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases. The offense featured a trio of .300 hitters — Hal Morris at .340, Mariano Duncan at .306 and Barry Larkin at .301 — and the power of Chris Sabo (25 home runs) and Eric Davis (24 homers).

Cincinnati was tough on the mound, too, with a 3.39 team ERA that ranked second in the NL. The starters were strong, but the bullpen was lights out. The relief corps ranked first in the league in fWAR, strikeout rate, left-on-base percentage and ERA. Of the five Reds to make the NL All-Star team in 1990, two were relievers (Rob Dibble and Randy Myers).

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The Reds opened the season with nine straight wins and got as high as 26 games over .500, on July 23, but a late-season slump (they finished 12-16) ruined their chances at a 100-win season. Those struggles vanished in the postseason, as the Reds beat the Pirates in six games in the NLCS and swept the A's in the World Series.

1994 Braves (68-46, second in NL East, season ended early due to strike)

While this  Braves squad didn’t get a chance to compete in the playoffs, it nonetheless put up astonishing numbers on the mound.

Greg Maddux had one of his best years in a Braves uniform, posting a 16-6 record with a 1.56 ERA in 25 starts. He compiled a 7.4 WAR, according to FanGraphs (by comparison, last year’s NL Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta, had a WAR of 7.3). The rest of the rotation followed suit, leading the majors in ERA, strikeout percentage, batting average against and WHIP.

While the bullpen wasn’t as strong as the rotation, with a 4.44 ERA and 12 blown saves, the starters made up for many late-game deficiencies. The Braves' pen logged the fewest innings of any team in 1994.

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The offense sat in the middle of the pack in most categories. Fred McGriff, David Justice and Mark Lemke led the team in hits, and McGriff led with 34 home runs.

The Braves won 13 of their first 14 games and were 22 games over .500 (a level they reached several times that season) at the time of the strike. They were leading the NL wild-card race over the Astros. The Expos were first in the NL East at 74-40.

1996 Rangers (90-72, AL West champions)

The Rangers used a potent offense to fuel a fast start and a division title. Texas had power (four players with at least 20 home runs and the third-best team OPS in the AL), contact (three regulars with batting averages .300 or better) and patience (fourth-best walk rate in baseball).

Juan Gonzalez hit 47 home runs and drove in 144 runs while Dean Palmer (107) and Rusty Greer (100) also reached the century mark in RBIs.

While the offense clicked on all cylinders, the pitching struggled mightily. Just one starter (Ken Hill) had an ERA below 4.00, while the bullpen ERA was 4.32.

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The Rangers were 15 games over .500 by the end of May. They finished 4 1/2 games ahead of the Mariners in the division.

Texas had a short stay in the playoffs, losing to the Yankees three games to one in the ALDS. New York went on to win the World Series.

2003 Royals (83-79, third in AL Central)

KC had a solid enough offense to win more often than it lost, but a dismal pitching staff ruined its playoff chances.

Carlos Beltran paced the offense, posting a .307/.389/.522 line with 26 home runs, 100 RBIs and 41 steals. Raul Ibanez (.294/.345/.454) added 18 home runs and 90 RBIs. Six other players had double-digit home runs.

The staff ERA, meanwhile, was 4.79. Darrell May led the rotation with 10 wins and a 3.77 ERA. The bullpen was a house of horrors, posting a 5.57 ERA and blowing 28 saves.

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The Royals, in fact, jumped out to a 9-0 start, but a 3-13 stretch from mid-May to the beginning of June sent the team below .500. They had only one winning streak longer than four games after the hot start. The White Sox and Twins finished ahead of them in the standings.

2003 Giants (100-61, NL West champions)

The Giants won 100 games for just the third time since moving to the Bay Area thanks to a balance of offensive prowess and solid pitching.

Barry Bonds (.341/.529/.749) led the offense with 45 home runs, 90 RBIs and 111 runs scored, all in his age-38 season. He led the majors with a 9.2 WAR en route to his third consecutive NL MVP award and sixth overall.

Marquis Grissom hit .300 with 20 home runs and had 79 RBIs. Jose Cruz Jr. added 20 home runs.

The 3.73 staff ERA was second-best in the Senior Circuit. Jason Schmidt led the rotation with a 17-5 record and a 2.34 ERA. Closer Tim Worrell saved 38 games and had a 2.87 ERA.

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San Francisco won its first seven games and 13 of its first 14, and never looked back. The team’s longest losing streak was six games in August, and it had four separate winning streaks of six games or more.

While they won the division by 15 1/2 games, the Giants were quickly run out of the playoffs by the Marlins in the NLDS. Florida went on to win the World Series.

2015 Royals (95-67, World Series champions)

Like the 1990 Reds, the Royals had a little bit of everything to help them win a title. But any discussion about last year’s Royals starts with their dominant bullpen.

Kansas City’s 2.72 bullpen ERA was the best in the American League. The pen’s .258 BABIP was best in baseball, and the relief corps stranded 80 percent of runners on base. Greg Holland (32) and Wade Davis (17) combined for 49 of the team's 56 saves, third-most in baseball.

The Royals’ offense was incredibly adept at making contact — Kansas City had the lowest walk rate and the lowest strikeout rate in the game. The team made contact on 82 percent of pitches and 90 percent of pitches in the strike zone. This approach led to KC averaging 4.47 runs per game.

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Lorenzo Cain (.307/.461/.477) and Eric Hosmer (.297/.363/.459) paced the offense, while Mike Moustakas added 22 home runs and 82 RBIs.

The Royals began the season 7-0 and finished April 15-7. Their longest losing streak was four games (happened three times) and they registered the franchise's most wins since 1980.

They defeated the Astros in a five-game ALDS, knocked off Toronto in six games in the ALCS and won the World Series in five games over the Mets.

2016 Orioles (?)

Baltimore has benefited from a dominant bullpen (1.67 ERA) and a strong offense. The Orioles rank in the top five in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs.

Is all of that sustainable?

Looking at the ZiPS projections of several key offensive threats (courtesy of FanGraphs), it’s clear there will be plenty of pop in the lineup. Chris Davis is expected to go deep 41 times and drive in 106 runs, Mark Trumbo is projected to hit 27 home runs and have 85 RBIs, and Manny Machado is projected to hit 28 home runs and drive in 69.

But, as in the case of the Royals in 2003, a strong offense isn’t enough to carry a team. Can the pitching hold up?

The projections for the rotation are bleak. Staff “ace” Ubaldo Jimenez is projected to win just eight games with a 4.32 ERA. Yovani Gallardo is also expected to have an ERA north of 4 . . . as are Chris Tillman, Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson (whose projected ERA creeps up over 5). This is far from a pretty picture.

That said, the bullpen should continue to be solid. Closer Zach Britton is projected to have an ERA below 3.00 while fanning nearly 10 batters per nine innings. Darren O’Day is also projected to have similar numbers, with a higher strikeout rate. Brad Brach, who appeared in five of the Orioles' first seven games and had not allowed a run, is projected to pitch 73 innings and post a 3.55 ERA.

While we can’t predict the future, we can say it looks as though the Orioles have the pieces to make a run for the postseason and — if history is any indication — a trip to the Fall Classic might be in the cards.

Just hold off on planning anything.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

Matthew VanTryon