KANSAS CITY, Mo. — When leadoff hitter Alcides Escobar swings at the first pitch, the Royals believe they will win the game.
That’s not breaking news, of course. That was breaking news in the early days of the American League Division Series, when Escobar and his Royals were trying to figure out how to get past the Astros.
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So we’ll offer an update: Escobar has swung at the first pitch in eight of the Royals’ 10 playoff games heading into Game 6 of the AL Championship Series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 5-3 in those eight games (and 1-1 when he doesn’t swing).
Here’s a more detailed breakdown, following this sequence: game, first-pitch result, where the pitch was located, pitch speed/type (info from MLB.com pitch data), team result.
ALDS vs. Astros
Game 1: called strike (in the strike zone, 90 mph fastball). Royals lost.
Game 2: foul (borderline/high-outside, 91 mph fastball). Royals won.
Game 3: single (in the strike zone, 88 mph 2-seam fastball). Royals lost.
Game 4: ball (outside, 95 mph fastball). Royals won.
Game 5: fly out (in the strike zone, 91 mph fastball). Royals won.
ALCS vs. Blue Jays
Game 1: double (in the strike zone, 89 mph fastball). Royals won.
Game 2: single (outside, 93 mph fastball). Royals won.
Game 3: swinging strike (borderline/inside, 94 mph fastball). Royals lost.
Game 4: swinging strike (in the strike zone, 73 mph knuckleball). Royals won.
Game 5: ground out (borderline/low, 89 mph fastball). Royals lost.
UPDATE: Game 6: foul ball (strike, 94 mph fastball). Royals won.
So here’s the question: If pitchers know Escobar is going to swing at the first pitch, why are they still throwing pitches he can drive? As you can see, in five of the six games, he was thrown a pitch that could have been called a strike — and the one that was clearly outside, he swung at anyway and went the other way for an opposite-field single.
He was asked before Game 6 if he was surprised the Toronto pitchers are hitting the zone on that first offering.
“Yeah, that surprised me right there,” Escobar said, “because everybody (knows) I swing at the first pitch, and continue to throw a strike, if he does pitch it, continue to throw a strike, I'll continue to swing the bat.”
The Royals will be OK with that.
UPDATE 2: Escobar fouled off the first pitch he saw in Game 6, from David Price — it was the 10th fastball among the 11 pitches, by the way, with only Dickey's knuckleball as the outlier — and then grounded out. But the next KC batter, Ben Zobrist, hit a home run to give the Royals the lead, so the Escobar thing seems to be working its magic again.
UPDATE 3: Mike Moustakas gave the Royals a 2-0 lead in the second with a disputed solo homer off Price. The blast was upheld by replay review.
