Every MLB club and fantasy baseball owner is looking for the next reclamation pitching project. Whether it be because of a mechanical tweak, a change in role or a better defense behind them, a new season brings new opportunity for some pitchers to put a disappointing 2017 behind them.
Here are four pitchers who are good bounce-back candidates in 2018.
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Kevin Gausman, Orioles
Baltimore seems to be built for one more year before a lengthy rebuild, with infielder Manny Machado, outfielder Adam Jones, pitcher Zach Britton, manager Buck Showalter and general manager Dan Duquette all entering the last year of their contracts. Their offense should be good enough to compete. Their pitching is the question mark, and they did not do anything to address it this offseason. If they hope to hang around in the AL East, they need a rebound year from Gausman.
Gausman had a horrendous start to his 2017 campaign. On June 16, he had the highest ERA (6.60) and wOBA allowed (.397) of all pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, striking out just 6.5 per nine while also issuing 4.3 free passes per nine.
Then, something clicked. From June 21 on, Gausman recorded a 3.39 ERA — the 16th best in the American League in that stretch — and held batters to a .307 wOBA. He recorded 10.1 K/9 and walked just 2.7 per nine in his final three and half months as well.
June 21 was also the first start in which Gausman’s arm slot significantly changed. According to Brooks Baseball, Gausman’s horizontal release point was roughly -2.5 to -2.9 feet away from his body in his first 15 starts. In his last 19, it usually was -2 to -2.3 feet.
If Gausman can continue to maintain that arm slot and success, he may be able to give the Orioles a sorely needed frontline starter — or least return to his form from 2016, when he had a 3.61 ERA and was worth 4.2 bWAR.
Jeff Samardzija, Giants
Samardzija got hit hard hard by the home run explosion of 2017, being one of 11 pitchers who surrendered 30 dingers last year. That ballooned his ERA to 4.42, but that spike could also be attributed to the defense behind him.
The 2016 Giants were the third best defensive team in baseball, accruing 58 defensive runs saved as a club. The 2017 Giants were the fifth worst, costing their team 44 runs. That’s a 102 run swing in the wrong direction. Samardzija pitched 207.2 innings last year, or roughly 15 percent of the team's total innings pitched. If 15 runs are subtracted from his season total, his ERA is virtually identical to what it was in 2016 (3.78).
The good news for the Giants’ pitching staff is that this year’s defense is much better. Denard Span and his -27 DRS are gone. Andrew McCutchen will be patrolling right field, where he was a plus defender in a limited sample size in 2017. Evan Longoria was worth 11 DRS last year, replacing a third base carousel that cost Giants pitchers two runs. And, of course, they still have Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Buster Posey, who can each be Gold Glove contenders.
While all the Giants’ starters could theoretically be on this list, Samardzija gets the nod because of his 6.41 K/BB ratio, which was the fourth best in baseball last season.
Even with his home run problem, he recorded a very respectable 3.61 FIP. If nothing else, he could improve if his ERA falls to what it "should" be.
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Michael Feliz, Pirates
In 2012, the Pirates traded their best pitcher, Joel Hanrahan, for a package of players that included underachieving reliever Mark Melancon. In 2016, they traded their best pitcher, Melancon, for a package of players that included underachieving reliever Felipe Rivero. In 2018, they traded their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, for a package of players that included underachieving reliever Michael Feliz.
Can lightning strike thrice?
Feliz stumbled to a 5.63 ERA in 2017, but half of his 30 earned runs came in just three appearances. A .381 BABIP and 15.1 HR/FB percentage certainly did not help his cause, so he could greatly benefit from having those metrics dip to the league norms. Feliz has one of the most electric fastballs in the division, sitting at 95-97 mph with a 27.2 percent Whiff/Swing ratio, according to Baseball Prospectus. That pitch, paired with a potentially plus slider, could make him Rivero’s set-up man in the near future.
Speaking of Rivero, Feliz shares a striking similarity: His follow through is similar to the lefty's before he came to Pittsburgh. In Washington, Rivero’s momentum made him take a step toward third base rather than home. In Houston, Feliz’s motion made him take a step toward first.
Now, Rivero takes a step towards home plate to finish his follow through.
The Pirates may be employing the same strategy for Feliz. In video from Locked On Pirates’ Jason Rollison, we can see Feliz’s step toward first base is less exaggerated as it was in Houston.
This fix cured Rivero of his walk problem, added some extra heat to his fastball and made him an all around dominant reliever. If Feliz can do the same, the Pirates could have two dangerous fireballers in the back of their bullpen.
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Francisco Liriano, Tigers
This one comes with an asterisk. Liriano recently signed an incentive-laden deal with the Tigers, which may indicate that he hopes to compete for a spot in the rotation. His days as a starter are likely behind him, but he could be a solid reliever.
The Astros thought the same way, which is why they took a flyer on him at the trade deadline last season. He did not do very well for the eventual world champs, recording a 4.40 ERA over 20 appearances, resulting in him being limited to mop-up duty in the postseason. Still, he's worth another look.
Part of those struggles may have just been him adjusting to the new role, and he showed some signs he was getting over the learning curve toward the end of the season. Liriano made nine appearances from Sept. 4 to the end of the regular season last year, facing a total of 19 batters. Of those 19, Liriano struck out seven, walked two and surrendered one hit.
While a 19-batter stretch is way too small of a sample size to take too seriously, the peripherals are still there. According to Baseball Prospectus, only seven left-handed pitchers had a whiff-to-swing rate of at least 35 percent for both their slider and changeup. Liriano was one of them. He recorded a 53.7 percent ground ball rate as a reliever, which would be in the 20th percentile for major league bullpen arms. And he was bringing heat, with Brooks Baseball saying his fastball averaged 95.3 mph in September — the highest of any full month of his major league career (excluding October).
Liriano has already had to revive his career twice, once after Tommy John surgery and again when he was rebuilt in Pittsburgh. The 34-year-old may have a chance to do it yet again.