April overreactions are so annoying. People look at a small sample size, draw a conclusion, then try to convince you that this could be the one time when the small sample will prove correct over the whole season. Having said that, I pose a question: Is it too early to believe in the 2018 Braves?
Hear me out.
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The Braves are 4-2 after the first week. Entering play Friday, they lead all of baseball in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage, and are second in slugging percentage and OPS. Their four wins include a big comeback on Opening Day against the trendy-pick Phillies and a convincing defeat of reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer as part of a series win against the front-runner Nationals.
All of this would be considered a pleasant surprise in Atlanta as the team's rebuild is said to have at least one more year before things get fun again.
But it's not just that the Braves have opened the season with two series wins against tough division rivals. It's the way they earned those wins, doing the things that scrappy, good-but-not-great teams have to do to sneak into the playoffs. Let's examine things a bit further.
You can't count them out
In their four wins this season, the Braves had to come from behind in three of them. This included a 5-0 deficit on Opening Day against the Phillies and a 3-0 deficit against the Nationals on Tuesday. It's not especially common for "bad" teams to routinely overcome multirun deficits, but the Braves have done it three times in six games. If not for a bad Peter Bourjos slide at home in the second game of the season, it would've been four times.
For what it's worth, since 2016, the Braves have won just 31 percent of the games in which their opponents scored first. That's less than the 35 percent the league as a whole registered over that same time. The Braves are supposed to be a bad-ish team this year (72 to 75 wins, with a ceiling of, say, 80), but they've shown early that they won't be pushovers.
They've taken advantage of mistakes
When an opponent offers extra outs or otherwise lets up, good teams will take advantage. Two big examples come to mind from the Braves' opening week.
First, on Opening Day, they made Gabe Kapler pay for removing Aaron Nola at 68 pitches with a 5-0 lead, chipping away and ultimately tying the game before they won on Nick Markakis' walkoff homer.
Then on Wednesday, after a Wilmer Difo two-out error extended the inning and put runners on first and second, Preston Tucker homered into the right field seats off Scherzer to put Atlanta in front 3-0. That set the tone for an eventual 7-1 win.
Role players are playing their roles
Playoff-caliber teams always have a strong group of role players — those guys who are on the team to fill in adequately when injuries arise, to pinch-hit late in the game or do their thing as a defensive replacement. In the Braves' case, they've seen two role players step up in big ways: Preston Tucker and Ryan Flaherty. And their roles are pretty non-glamorous: Play left field and third base, respectively, until Atlanta's planned starters arrive for the year: Ronald Acuña (left field) and Johan Camargo (third base).
Acuña, of course, is the uber-hyped prospect in Triple-A who the Braves believe can become the new face of the franchise. Camargo, who started the season on the DL, is himself essentially a fill-in until Austin Riley arrives to become the third baseman of the future. In the meantime, Tucker and Flaherty have played their roles better than the Braves could've expected.
Through six games, Tucker has a .429/.455/.810 slash line and a pair of big three-run homers, while Flaherty leads the league in hits (10) and doubles (four) while carrying a .435/.500/.609 slash line. On the pitching side, Brandon McCarthy had a solid first outing against the Phillies as he attempts to fill the role of Reliable Veteran Starter.
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Everyone is chipping in
Consistent winning in baseball takes contributions from everyone. Everyone might not be hot at the same time, but the right people will be hot when needed. That goes for the starting lineup, the rotation and the bullpen.
Aside from Tucker and Flaherty, the Braves also have gotten timely hits and strong play from Dansby Swanson, who's already looking better than he did in a disappointing 2017 campaign, as well as from Ozzie Albies, who has started slowly at the plate but has still scored six runs (tied for second-most on the team) and shown game-changing speed and defense.
Then there's Ender Inciarte, who also has started slowly with the bat but continues to play a strong center field. When the starting pitchers have faltered, the bullpen has done solid overall work to hold leads or keep things manageable. It takes a village to win in baseball.
Their best is at his best
You can’t talk about Braves success without mentioning Freddie Freeman. Whatever success comes Atlanta’s way in 2018 will almost certainly have a lot to do with its highly talented, severely underrated first baseman. Freeman, who has already proven himself to be an MVP-caliber player, is at it again in the early days of the season. Entering Friday, he leads the league in walks, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS+. None of that is surprising.
Last season, Freeman was on an MVP pace before a broken wrist forced him out for more than a month. Yet hit still clubbed 28 homers and carried a .403 OBP. He’s good, y’all. If Freeman stays healthy this season, there’s no reason to think he won’t put up the kind of numbers every contender needs from its best player.
Acuña is coming
This one is admittedly not based on anything that’s happened on the field, unless you want to count spring training, when Acuña slashed .432/.519/.727 in 44 at-bats and showed why he’s the top prospect in baseball.
Acuña brings a game-changing power bat as one of his five tools. He’s likely to debut in about a week and is expected to be the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year award. Some prognosticators believe he’ll even get some MVP votes at year’s end. The point is, Acuña should make the Braves’ lineup much more formidable. And if the offense continues anywhere near its early pace, that bodes well in a wild-card hunt that'll likely only require around 85 wins.
Sneak preview?
So, is it too early to believe in these Braves? Truthfully? Probably.
As fun and unexpected as their first two series have been, it is still the first week of April. Bats will cool, luck will run out and everyone will regress to their norms. That’s just baseball. Not to mention that their pitching is spotty. Julio Teheran remains inconsistent and Mike Foltynewicz, despite a strong outing this week against the Nationals, has yet to really put it all together with regularity. Sean Newcomb still has control issues, and the other young arms in the system aren’t quite ready. Still, the Braves have overcome all that in the early going, which is why they're among the more intriguing teams so far in 2018.
Publicly, the Braves will talk about being competitive and say that failing to make the playoffs this year is a missed opportunity. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But by all accounts, their eyes are collectively on 2019, when they’ll have the flexibility to spend big and land a top free agent or two. Then, they say, the glory days can return.
But it’s also possible that baseball will smile on them a year early and offer Atlanta a sneak preview of what’s to come.
