The latest Baseball Hall of Fame ballot debuted Nov. 21, with 34 candidates making the cut. Every year, roughly this many candidates make the ballot, from future Hall of Famers to men who merely spent the requisite 10 years in the majors and received a courtesy nod from a screening committee.
So who actually has a chance this year of getting the necessary 75 percent of the vote from the Baseball Writers' Association of America when results are announced Jan. 18? Here’s a breakdown of the ballot, with predictions.
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1. Trevor Hoffman
Last year: 68.3 percent, in his first year on the ballot
Prediction: 80 percent
The good news for Hoffman is that his showing as a first-time Hall of Fame candidate suggests he’ll get in soon.
Eight other players have debuted on the writers' ballot between 65 and 74.9 percent of the vote. All eight are now in Cooperstown. Five of the players — Roberto Alomar, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Carlton Fisk and, this bodes best for Hoffman, Rollie Fingers — were inducted in their second year on the ballot.
Historically, there tends to be a pile-on effect when a new Hall of Fame candidate falls just short, with writers who were afraid to appear wrong the candidate’s first year only too happy to back someone they now know will be successful.
In other words, the longtime San Diego Padres fireman should get into Cooperstown easily this year.
2. Tim Raines
Last year: 69.8 percent, in his ninth year on the ballot
Prediction: 76 percent
Because of changes in voting rules, this is Raines’ last year on the writers’ ballot. Thanks to the urgency, the former Montreal Expos speedster should get a push just over the necessary 75 percent of the vote he needs for a plaque.
3. Jeff Bagwell
Last year: 71.6 percent of the vote, in his sixth year on the ballot
Prediction: 74 percent
Bagwell fared better than Raines (and Hoffman) last year and could likewise get in this year. But there’s less incentive for writers to change their vote with Bagwell than with Raines. The former Houston Astros slugger should pick up a few votes, though don’t be surprised if Bagwell has to wait at least one more year for induction.
4. Ivan Rodriguez
Last year: Not eligible
Prediction: 60 percent
Hall of Fame voters are mellowing about candidates possibly having used performance-enhancing drugs. Rodriguez also built a reputation as arguably the greatest defensive catcher in baseball history, which won’t have much tie-in to steroids for many voters. Rodriguez’s appearance in the 2007 Mitchell Report on the use of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball will cost him a few votes his first year on the ballot. But, at this point, it’s unlikely to sink his case.
5. Curt Schilling
Last year: 52.3 percent, in his fourth year on the ballot
Prediction: 56 percent
Take Schilling’s Twitter away, and he could probably add another 10 percentage points to that vote total.
6. Mike Mussina
Last year: 43.0 percent, in his third year on the ballot
Prediction: 54 percent
Mussina broke through as a Hall of Fame candidate last year, adding nearly 20 percentage points to his vote totals. On a similarly underwhelming ballot, look for him to make another big jump and be right in line with Schilling, a very close comp sabermetrically.
7. Edgar Martinez
Last year: 43.4 percent, in his seventh year on the ballot
Prediction: 52 percent
Martinez is about to receive a big boost from David Ortiz’s triumphant final season and the inevitable comparisons it’s inspired between the two legendary designated hitters. The only question is whether Martinez can generate enough momentum over his remaining two years on the ballot, after this year, to get inducted with the writers. At this point, it’s still a longshot.
8. Roger Clemens
Last year: 45.2 percent, in his fourth year on the ballot
Prediction: 49 percent
Clemens began to look last year like he might actually get to 75 percent of the vote with the writers.
9. Barry Bonds
Last year: 44.3 percent, in his fourth year on the ballot
Prediction: 47 percent
Ditto.
10. Lee Smith
Last year: 34.1 percent, his 14th year on the ballot
Prediction: 42 percent
Smith is the final player on the ballot being grandfathered in under the old system that allowed players 15 years of eligibility with the writers. He won’t have enough of a boost from the writers to come anywhere close to Cooperstown this year, though he seems like he’ll have a good shot on the veterans’ ballot.
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11. Fred McGriff
Last year: 20.9 percent, in his ninth year on the ballot
Prediction: 28 percent
Rough time to be a Hall of Fame candidate for Crime Dog, who’s in his 10th and final year on the ballot and whose 493 home runs would have been enough for a plaque had his career occurred 30 years before. Like Smith, McGriff might have better odds for Cooperstown when he becomes eligible with veteran voters.
12. Vladimir Guerrero
Last year: Not eligible
Prediction: 24 percent
Had Guerrero remained the player he was in the early part of his career, he might have a case as an inner circle Hall of Famer. As it stands, Guerrero seems to fall into the second or third tier of Hall of Fame outfielders. Other members of this class include Billy Williams and Duke Snider, who debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot with 23.4 percent of the vote and 17 percent, respectively.
13. Jeff Kent
Last year: 16.6 percent, in his third year on the ballot
Prediction: 20 percent
By sabermetrics, Kent wasn’t a better second baseman than Bobby Grich or Lou Whitaker. Unlike them, he’s lasted longer than a year on the writers’ ballot and might go the full 10 years, though induction through the BBWAA seems unlikely.
14. Larry Walker
Last year: 15.5 percent, in his sixth year on the ballot
Prediction: 18 percent
Walker deserves more support than he’s getting. As his former teammate Bret Saberhagen said recently, “I think the one thing that's held against him is playing in Colorado for so many years. ... He was a five-tool guy. He had the speed, the arm, the power, the average. He was the complete package.”
15. Manny Ramirez
Last year: Not eligible
Prediction: 15 percent
Out of context, his stats are a thing of beauty: 555 home runs, a .312/.411/.585 lifetime slash, and a .273 ISO, ninth-best in baseball history. Oh, but that context, it’s not Manny’s friend. Some voters will look past the two steroid-related suspensions, the porous defense, and a reputation, to put it diplomatically, of being colorful. Many more voters won’t.
16. Billy Wagner
Last year: 10.5 percent, in his first year on the ballot
Prediction: 12 percent
Wagner might have an argument as a better closer than Hoffman or Smith, though he’ll trail distantly in Hall of Fame votes this year. Look for him to make a modest increase in his totals and for more columns to be written over the next year touting his worthiness.
17. Jorge Posada
Last year: Not eligible
Prediction: 8 percent
In the eyes of most Hall of Fame voters, Jorge Posada will not be a Hall of Famer. To a small percentage, the longtime New York Yankees backstop will be worthy. Look for these voters to abandon Posada’s case next year. Similar things happened with the candidacies of fellow Bronx Bombers Thurman Munson and Bernie Williams.
18. Gary Sheffield
Last year: 11.6 percent, in his first year on the ballot
Prediction: 7 percent
Sheffield has a similar case to Manny, but stats not quite as stellar by any number of different measures. That will cost Sheffield at least a few votes. It might even bump him below 5 percent and off future ballots.
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Others
— Returning candidates who will receive less than 5 percent of the vote and be removed from future ballots: Sammy Sosa
— Newly-eligible candidates likely to get at least one vote, but receive less than 5 percent, disqualifying them from future ballots: Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, Derrek Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Edgar Renteria, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield
— Newly-eligible candidates likely to receive zero votes: Casey Blake, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Melvin Mora, Arthur Rhodes, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Stairs