Sunday afternoon marks the rubber match between the Los Angeles Dodgers & Colorado Rockies, with Gavin Stone set to start opposite Austin Gomber. While Stone has had a strong start to 2024, Austin Gomber is in the midst of a career year.
The 30-year-old starter has posted a 2.76 ERA through 10 starts and a 2.61 BB/9 that sits as the second-best mark of his career. Even starting half his games at Coors Field, Gomber has been able to be effective thanks largely to a roughly 44 percent groundball rate that sits as his highest since joining the Rox in 2021.
At the same time, this is a situation where the pitch is outperforming some of the peripherals. There are a couple of components that may be deemed unsustainable in the underlying aspects for Gomber.
First is his strand rate. He comes into this start with a LOB% of 87.8, off a career 71.3 percent mark. Opposing hitters are also going for a mere .232 batting average on balls in play. His career average there is at .293. This comes with a 37.9 HardHit% that represents the second-highest rate of his career. This all feeds into an xERA of 4.13. So while he's been fine, he hasn't been exactly as good as the obvious numbers might indicate.
Which bodes well for the Dodgers. In his career, Gomber has made seven appearances against LA. In those appearances, he has a 5.67 ERA. Across 27 innings, he's allowed 34 hits & 16 walks against only 23 strikeouts.
He's not a high strikeout guy; his aim is generally limiting quality contact. This year, he's added that element of the groundball, which has allowed him to maintain the steady performance he's shown to date.
At the same time, the Dodgers feature the league's third-highest HardHit% (42.9) and put the ball on the ground at the league's lowest rate by a wide margin (36.4 GB%). Within the lineup, Mookie Betts is a .400 hitter against Gomber. Freddie Freeman & Shohei Ohtani are each at .500. Same goes for Teoscar Hernández.
Even given their recent offensive struggles, one imagines that their own trends against Gomber's peripherals should line up fairly well for a series win on Sunday. Especially with Gavin Stone going on the home side.