Is the race for the National League's Most Valuable Player award closer than it seems?
Los Angeles Dodgers superstar designated hitter Shohei Ohtani has led the MVP race from wire to wire. Though he is taking a break from pitching this season, Ohtani is having one of the most historic offensive seasons in baseball history.
Ohtani enters play Thursday with 47 home runs and 48 stolen bases. That makes him just the sixth player ever to rack up at least 40 of both, and he could soon become the first player ever to accomplish a 50/50 season.
However, a late-season surge from New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has put the MVP race at least slightly in doubt. And one Major League Baseball analyst believes there is a way for Lindor to steal Ohtani's thunder.
On MLB Network Wednesday night, Greg Amsinger said he believes Lindor will usurp Ohtani if he fails to reach the 50/50 mark.
"I think if Shohei Ohtani does not reach 50/50, Francisco Lindor will be the National League's Most Valuable Player," Amsinger said. "fWAR matters, Francisco Lindor is dragging the Mets into the playoffs... He's playing terrific defense at short, he's going to be a 30/30 shortstop."
As Amsinger references, Lindor currently leads Ohtani in Fangraphs' version of WAR, 7.4 to 7.0. Many consider fWAR to be the superior metric to Baseball Reference WAR, particularly for position players.
The defensive argument is a solid one, because while Ohtani can only impact one side of the ball, Lindor has 17 outs above average, putting him in the 99th percentile of defensive value, at the game's most important positions.
On the flipside, though, Ohtani's offensive impact is greater than Lindor's by any conceivable metric. In addition to having nearly 20 more home runs and steals, each category of his triple slash line is significantly higher, resulting in an OPS+ difference of 177 to 135.
It certainly seems as though Ohtani will get to 50/50, which would put the debate to bed even in Amsinger's mind. But if he doesn't get there, perhaps the game's most iconic current player will have to wait to put a third MVP trophy on his mantle.
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