Who will win the Preakness Stakes? Horses, odds, expert picks and more for 2024 Triple Crown race

Jacob Camenker

Who will win the Preakness Stakes? Horses, odds, expert picks and more for 2024 Triple Crown race image

Triple Crown winners have been rare across horse racing's centuries-long history, but it's seemingly becoming rarer and rarer for a horse to even have a shot at completing the incredible feat.

Case in point, the last time a horse won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in the same year was Justify in 2018. Granted, Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner that season, but since then, no horse has run the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history.

Mystik Dan will look to change that in 2024. He won the Kentucky Derby in a photo finish and will now look to emerge from the eight-horse Preakness field victoriously. He is expected to fare well, and with his top competition — Bob Baffert-trained colt Muth — he may have a chance to win again.

Either way, Mystik Dan's presence will create a buzz around Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. History buffs will be hoping he can capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown while others will be backing Muth, or others in the field, during the "Run for the Black-Eyed Susans."

But which horse should you trust to win the Preakness Stakes in 2024? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets for the Triple Crown race.

MORE: Everything to know about Preakness horses in 2024

Preakness Stakes odds 2024

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see the Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (5-2) among the favorites to win the Preakness. He won in a photo finish at the Run for the Roses, but his performance will inspire hope that he can do even better in the shortest Triple Crown race.

Muth originally opened as the favorite with 8-5 odds and was expected to provide Mystik Dan with his toughest competition. The Bob Baffert-trained colt was unable to run the Kentucky Derby because of the trainer's ban from the event, and he will be held out of the Preakness as he recovers from a fever.

Muth's withdrawal will cull the Preakness field to just eight horses. It will also move Mystik Dan from the No. 5 gate to the No. 4 gate.

Below is a look at the full odds to win the Preakness Stakes, via the Maryland Jockey Club.

Post positionHorseOdds
1Mugatu20-1
2Uncle Heavy20-1
3Catching Freedom6-1
4Mystik Dan5-2
5Seize the Grey15-1
6Just Steel15-1
7Tuscan Gold8-1
8Imagination6-1

MORE: Explaining the origin of Mystik Dan's name

Preakness Stakes expert picks

The Preakness Stakes is the shortest of the Triple Crown races at 1 3/16 miles. That will favor horses that start well and possess quality speed a bit more than the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. It's tougher to overcome a bad start on a shorter track — even if a racehorse has great stamina.

The good news is that fewer horses are in the Preakness field than the Kentucky Derby. That will give each horse more space in which to operate and position themselves for the stretch run. And those with great closing burst will be able to compete for a win.

One last thing: It's important to remember that the Kentucky Derby results aren't always predictive of success at the Preakness. And better-rested horses may ultimately have an advantage in this race considering the Preakness is run just two weeks after the rigorous Run for the Roses.

Best bets to win the Preakness Stakes 2024

The best way to profit at the Preakness is to back the horses with the best speed. Muth and Mystik Dan figure to be those horses, but betting both favorites wasn't an advisable strategy given their short odds to win.

Muth's withdrawal makes it easier to trust Mystik Dan (5-2) as the top horse in the field. While he may be a bit more fatigued than the other horses, having run the rigorous Derby two weeks earlier, his maximum Equibase speed figure of 109 is among the best in the field. Muth's mark of 115 could have challenged it, so his absence looms large for Mystik Dan.

The last three Preakness winners have had Equibase figures of 103 or lower. Thus, even if Mystik Dan runs at a slightly slower pace than he did at the Kentucky Derby, he should be positioned to contend for the title at Pilmico.

Those looking for a value pick to win the Preakness can look no further than Imagination (6-1). He has never finished worse than second in six career starts and has two wins under his belt. His career-high 104 Equibase speed figure is below that of Muth (115) and Mystik Dan (109 at the Kentucky Derby), but it is plenty fast enough to keep him in contention at the Preakness.

And if Mystik Dan is tired after his Kentucky Derby win, Imagination may have just enough steam to do what the horses at Churchill Downs couldn't do: edge out Mystik Dan at the finish line.

MORE: Who is Brian Hernandez? What to know about Mystik Dan's jockey

What is the best post position in horse racing?

There is no true best post position in horse racing. The benefits of each position vary depending on the length of the race and the horse running from each gate.

Typically, horses that like more space will prefer to be in the high-numbered posts for a race. That allows them to have space to their outside shoulder and stay away from traffic that could squeeze them out of lanes. Additionally, those in the outside posts spend less time in the starting gate, which is a benefit for skittish horses.

That said, the shortest path to victory comes alongside the rail. That makes the No. 1 gate an asset for horses that don't mind running in tightly-packed conditions. But for claustrophobic horses, that spot is a nightmare. They have to wait inside the gate longer and have no escape from traffic and the rail on either side.

Those horses may get nervous and stray from the pack while trying to find space. That typically leads to the horses hanging back — unless their jockeys can ride them to an early lead and put some space in front of them.

Knowing this, it's no surprise that the Preakness Stakes has had a wide distribution of winners over its history. Each of the first eight gates has produced at least 10 winners. The No. 6 spot has been the most favorable gate, producing 16 winners since the starting gate was first implemented in 1909. The Nos. 4 and 7 gates are close behind, both having produced 14 winners each.

Here is the complete list of Preakness Stakes winners at each post position:

Post positionPreakness winners
113
212
312
414
513
616
714
810
94
102
112
123
131

Preakness Stakes winners by post position

The Preakness Stakes implemented a starting gate in 1909. Since then, every gate numbered 1-13 has produced a winner with Gates 1-8 all producing at least 10 over the 114 races run since 1909.

National Treasure won the Preakness Stakes in 2023. The Bob Baffert colt ran along the rail to victory in a seven-horse race. He was the fourth winner to come out of the No. 1 gate since 2015, joining American Pharaoh, War of Will, and Rombauer as winners of the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

Below is a list of all of the Preakness winners by gate since 1909:

*Preakness divided

1 — (13)

YearWinner
1911Watervale
1930Gallant Fox
1934High Quest
1937War Admiral
1941Whirlaway
1949Capot
1950Hill Prince
1960Bally Ache
1994Tabasco Cat
2015American Pharoah
2019War of Will
2021Rombauer
2023National Treasure

2 — (12)

YearWinner
1912Col. Holloway
1939Challedon
1943Count Fleet
1944Pensive
1947Faultless
1967Damascus
1968Forward Pass
1970Personality
1974Little Current
1979Spectacular Bid
1986Snow Chief
2017Cloud Computing

3 — (12)

YearWinner
1913Buskin
1916Damrosch
1956Fabius
1966Kauai King
1973Secretariat
1975Master Derby
1980Codex
1983Deputed Testamony
1984Gate Dancer
1988Risen Star
1993Prairie Bayou
2013California Chrome

4 — (14)

YearWinner
1909Effendi
1927Bostonian
1933Head Play
1936Bold Venture
1948Citation
1952Blue Man
1953Native Dancer
1961Carry Back
1964Northern Dancer
1991Hansel
1992Pine Bluff
2000Red Bullet
2007Curlin
2020Swiss Skydiver

5 — (13)

YearWinner
1918*Jack Hare Jr.
1922Pillory
1931Mate
1938Dauber
1940Bimelech
1946Assault
1955Nashua
1957Bold Ruler
1969Majestic Prince
1976Elocutionist
2011Shackleford
2016Exaggerator
2022Early Voting

6 — (16)

YearWinner
1914Holiday
1915Rhine Maiden
1929Dr. Freeland
1932Burgoo King
1935Omaha
1951Bold
1954Hasty Road
1959Royal Orbit
1965Tom Rolfe
1978Affirmed
1985Tank’s Prospect
1987Alysheba
1996Louis Quatorze
1999Charismatic
2004Smarty Jones
2013Oxbow

7 — (14)

YearWinner
1920Man O’ War
1921Broomspun
1924Nellie Morse
1928Victorian
1945Polynesian
1972Bee Bee Bee
1982Aloma’s Ruler
1989Sunday Silence
1990Summer Squall
1995Timber Country
1997Silver Charm
2008Big Brown
2017Lookin at Lucky
2018Justify

8 — (10)

YearWinner
1918*War Cloud
1919Sir Barton
1923Vigil
1925Coventry
1942Alsab
1958Tim Tam
1963Candy Spots
1977Seattle Slew
2002War Emblem
2006Bernardini

9 — (4)

YearWinner
1910Layminster
1971Canonero II Way
2003Funny Cide
2012I’ll Have Another

10 — (2)

YearWinner
1962Greek Money
1998Real Quiet

11 — (2)

YearWinner
1926Display
2001Point Given

12 — (3)

YearWinner
1917Kalitan
1981Pleasant Colony
2005Afleet Alex

13 — (1)

YearWinner
2009Rachel Alexandra

Jacob Camenker

Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker first joined The Sporting News as a fantasy football intern in 2018 after his graduation from UMass. He became a full-time employee with TSN in 2021 and now serves as a senior content producer with a particular focus on the NFL. Jacob worked at NBC Sports Boston as a content producer from 2019 to 2021. He is an avid fan of the NFL Draft and ranked 10th in FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Accuracy metric in both 2021 and 2022.