The 2023 Kentucky Derby, the 149th edition will be held as the annual first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown this Saturday, May 6 (post time 6:57 p.m. ET, NBC). There are another 18 horses competing in the "The Run For the Roses" this year with finishing first in 1 1/4 miles separating them from immortality.
This year's field is strong, with the well-pedigreed Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire favored at 6-1 after week-long favorite Forte scratched Saturday morning.
Rich Strike, the horse that only raced after a late scratch in 2022, pulled the second-greatest shocker in Derby history, winning as an 80-1 longshot in edging out favorites Epicenter and Zandon. With some rain in the forecast for Louisville for Saturday morning, there could be some more unpredictability with a potential for a muddy track in cool conditions at Churchill Downs.
Before you make your final Kentucky Derby picks for win, place and show in 2023 here's a look at the odds, favorites and longshots and how history, personnel and conditions can hurt or help each horse. Look for updates as the morning line changes.
MORE: Complete betting guide for the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line odds for 2023
Here are the results and initial betting lines for the field from Churchill Downs after the Monday, May 1 post position draw. These will be updated closer to the post time on Saturday, with the latest morning line odds from KentuckyDerby.com.
| Post position | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | 33-1 |
| 2 | Verifying | 19-1 |
| 3 | Two Phil's | 8-1 |
| 4 | Confidence Game | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | 6-1 |
| 6 | Kingsbarns | 12-1 |
| 7 | Reincarnate | 15-1 |
| 8 | Mage | 20-1 |
| 9 | Skinner | Scratched |
| 10 | Practical Move | Scratched |
| 11 | Disarm | 27-1 |
| 12 | Jace's Road | 39-1 |
| 13 | Sun Thunder | 37-1 |
| 14 | Angel of Empire | 6-1 |
| 15 | Forte | Scratched |
| 16 | Raise Cain | 37-1 |
| 17 | Derma Sotogake | 8-1 |
| 18 | Rocket Can | 36-1 |
| 19 | Lord Miles | Scratched |
| 20 | Continuar | Scratched |
| 21 | Cyclone Mischief | 39-1 |
| 22 | Mandarin Hero | 26-1 |
| 23 | King Russell | 39-1 |
Which Kentucky Derby contenders have the best track record?
1. Tapit Trice (6-1)
As you might expect, this horse was sired by Tapit. Like Forte, he is trained by the venerable Todd Pletcher. He has well-rounded experience, having won the Blue Grass Stakes on the heels of winning the Tampa Bay Derby.
2. Angel of Empire (6-1)
This Brad H. Cox-trained horse has been building momentum since early in the year, culminating with a super-fast performance in winning the Arkansas Derby. The confidence has growing while racing against some Kentucky Derby entrants.
3. Derma Sotogake (8-1)
As you might have guessed, this is the strongest Japanese contender, trained by Hidetake Otonashi. Derma Sotogake will hope to translate some domination in the UAE Derby stateside.
Which trainers can you trust most in the 2023 Kentucky Derby?
1. Todd Pletcher
Pletcher is trying to have Tapit Trice get him an elusive third Derby victory. Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017) were his previous victors. Pletcher also has four more Triple Crown victories under his belt, all at the longer Belmont Stakes.
2. Brad H. Cox
Cox is just two years removed from winning two of the three Triple Crown races with two horses in 2021, Mandaloun in the Derby (after Medina Spirit was disqualified) and Essential Quality in the Belmont. Cox has four horses in this year's Derby, as Angel of Empire is joined by inside-positioned Hit Show and Verifying and Jace's Road from No. 12.
3. Tim Yakteen
Yakteen is bound to break through soon as a late bloomer in the Derby and with Practical Move scratched, watch out for intriguing sleeper Reincarnate. The experience with Messier should help this year.
MORE: All-time Kentucky Derby records
Which jockeys can you trust most at the 2023 Kentucky Derby?
1. John Velazquez
The wily 51-year-old is looking for his fourth Derby win with Reincarnate. Going back a dozen years, Velazquez won with Animal Kingdom (2011), Always Dreaming (with Pletcher, 2017) and Authentic (with Baffert, 2020).
2. Luis Saez
Saez has a Triple Crown win under his belt as Cox's jockey for Essential Quality in the 2021 Belmont. He is a very talented rein man with good success in high-stakes, high-pressure races which will help Tapit Thrice.
3. Flavien Prat
Prat won the 2019 Kentucky Derby riding Country House, Prat should feel confident to make it two in control of Angel of Empire for Cox.
4. Florent Geroux
Cox has a former Derby winner in charge of longshot Jace's Road. Geroux delivered for him in 2021 aboard Mandaloun.
Which horses are best longshot picks to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby?
1. Reincarnate (15-1)
The Yakteen-Velazquez combination of upside and experience can't be ignored, despite the sliding odds. The Derby might favor Reincarnate more so than previous attempts.
2. Mage (20-1)
Mage, trained by Gustavo Delgado and jockeyed by Javier Castellano, has had a good showing vs. Forte to think he can push him again despite not having many races behind him.
3. Verifying (19-1)
Don't sleep on this other Cox horse. Tyler Gaffalione is a good young strategist to think he can can go all out down the stretch.
Which post position is the most advantageous?
In Kentucky Derby history, no post position has produced more winners than No. 5 with 10 over 148 years. No. 10 comes in second with nine winners. No. 5 is something inspiring for Tapit Trice, positioned where Always Dreaming won six years ago, California Chrome won in '14 and Audible placed in '18. No. 10 is in a drought as it's been 18 years since a horse won from there (Giacomo in '05).
Next in line is post position No. 8, with 8 winners, including Mine That Bird in '09 and Barbaro in '06. In 2018, Justify became the lucky seventh horse to win from No. 7, following Street Sense in, yep, you guessed it, 2007. Two years ago, Medina Spirit had thought it won from No. 8, but Mandaloun ended up prevailing from No. 7. Reincarnate and Mage will hope to re-create some magic inside.
Being near the rail has been bad news of late. It's been 37 years since Ferdinand won from No. 1, and 45 years since Affirmed won from No. 2. This year, Nos. 1 and 2 are tough breaks for Hit Show and Verifying.
The sweet spot in recent years has been anywhere outside No. 12. By entering the gate late, Rich Strike improbably won from No. 21 in No. 22. In reverse order back to 2008, such other winners include Nyquist (No. 13), American Pharoah (No. 18), Orb (No. 16), I'll Have Another (No. 19), Animal Kingdom (No. 16) and Big Brown (No. 20).
Following that before Rich Strike, Country House won from No. 20 in 2019 and Authentic took the Derby from No. 18 in 2020. The one exception is No. 17, which has never produced a Derby winner in 44 tries, a curse Derma Sotogake will be challenged to reverse.
Kentucky Derby 2023 picks
Here is the projected order of finish at the 2023 Kentucky Derby:
- Win: Angel of Empire
- Place: Tapit Trice
- Show: Reincarnate
The favorites haven't fared too well of late. Angel of Empire, sired by Classic Empire, seems just right to win the Derby with Cox, Prat, post position and stamina all on his side. Tapit Trice seems better suited to take the Belmont based on pedigree history.
