Belmont Stakes 2024 predictions: Betting favorites, sleepers, top prop picks for third leg of triple crown

Ahead of the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 8 (FOX/Fubo, post time 6:41 p.m. ET), the narrative around the Third Jewel of the Triple Crown has been dominated by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Preakness winner Seize the Grey, and Derby runner-up Sierra Leone.

That should come as no surprise, especially after Todd Pletcher announced that Fierceness would be held out of the event at Saratoga this weekend. The top of the odds board seems tight because this race could go any number of ways — especially if the conditions are wet.

MORE BELMONT: Betting guide | Horse profiles | Post positions

In that same vein, sleepers can be much more rewarding betting investments in big races like the Belmont, Preakness, and Derby. Since 1908, only 66 of 154 favorites have won the Belmont, 40 of the 116 favorites have won the Kentucky Derby, and 73 of the 149 Preakness favorites have prevailed.

Looking at those numbers, we can easily discern that bettors should exercise caution and not put all their betting investment eggs in the odds-on favorite's basket. As in every facet of sports betting, we must pinpoint the value before placing wagers.

Let's take a look at the FanDuel Racing odds for the 2024 Belmont, then discuss the best bets, top value pick, and best sleeper to win.

Belmont Stakes 2024 odds to win

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing. Pos = post position.

BUY NOW: Cheapest tickets for 2024 Belmont Stakes on StubHub

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best bets

Sierra Leone (9-5)

It may seem boring to pick the odds-on favorite to win, but the Sporting News' best bet at Saratoga this weekend is the consistently solid Sierra Leone. This horse has it all: solid pedigree, great speed profile, tactical speed, and a proven track record of winning on every kind of surface.

Future Hall-of-Fame trainer Chad Brown, a Saratoga native, knows this track well and has accumulated many Belmont training titles. He also knows when changes need to be made, so he recently introduced Sierra Leone with a new bit and a jockey change.

The switch from Tyler Gaffalione to Flavien Prat should fare well for Sierra Leone, who didn't seem to need much of a tweak to rise back to prominence. The horse has three wins and two runner-ups in five starts, and he should add to that impressive resume this weekend.

Mystik Dan (5-2)

Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Mystik Dan has been on a dream run. The three-year-old colt missed out on his chance to become the 14th horse to win the Triple Crown, but he can still win two out of three or place in all three major events. 

A strong galloper with stalking speed, Mystik Dan became a popular value pick for the Kentucky Derby after winning the muddy Southwest Stakes by eight lengths. He showcased similar positional speed and stamina in the Run for the Roses, staying near the lead from the midway point on and winning by a nose in a historically close finish. 

Mystik Dan has solid pedigree, a strong starting position at post No. 3, and fantastic closing speed regardless of surface conditions. Racing under former Eclipse Award jockey Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. doesn't hurt. Mystik Dan easily ranks as one of the two best bets.

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best exacta picks

Seize the Grey

Coming off an impressive win in the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day, Seize the Grey transformed into a household name with a massive victory at last month's Preakness Stakes. With a strong speed profile and ability to thrive in any track conditions, this colt makes for a fine exacta pick this weekend. 

Seize the Grey broke his maiden at Saratoga, and his trainer Wayne Lucas has won the Belmont four times. If not for this horse's insanely busy stretch — which includes three races in five weeks — his odds of winning might be even shorter.

Still, running out of the first post — the most successful post in Belmont history — he should be able to at least place second or third at Saratoga this Saturday evening.

Antiquarian

Antiquarian just seems to get better and better each race, and it feels like he's getting overlooked a bit ahead of the Belmont. The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct last month, this three-year-old colt enters the weekend in peak form and could easily contend for the win.

A Todd Pletcher-trained horse, Antiquarian has strong tactical speed and underrated stamina. In four starts, he has two wins and one runner-up. Antiquarian might not be worth an outright win bet, but he's worth strong consideration for exacta or trifecta tickets this weekend.

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best sleeper and long shot exacta

Honor Marie (12-1 to win)

It's hard for the Sporting News to ever count out Honor Marie. In six career starts, he has two firsts, two seconds, and a fifth-place finish. Sure, he has yet to win a race this calendar year, but that can easily change with a strong start out of the gate this weekend.

Trainer Whit Beckman has raved about Honor Marie's great training run since a disappointing eighth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby. It's easy to envision a fighter of a horse like Honor Marie to break through and enjoy a stunning upset of a victory this Saturday.

Protective (20-1 to win)

Considering Protective is still a maiden with no career wins to date, the Todd Pletcher-trained horse has the longest odds in the entire field this weekend.

That said, we're talking about a colt with solid stamina bloodlines who seems to look better and better with every start. If you're too nervous to pick Protective to win, you might want to roll him into a low-stakes exacta box.

What is the best post position in horse racing?

Although it's important to note that this weekend's event will be held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, NY this year — not Belmont's usual venue at Belmont Park, due to a renovation break — it's still worth noting the past post position success rates for the race and racing in general.

The optimal position in horse racing is dependent on a lot of factors, including the horse, the track, the jockey, the terrain, the weather, and the competition.

Strategies also vary based on the position. Every position from 1-13 has won at least one race at the Belmont Stakes. That said, the No. 1 post has come away with the most wins in history at 24 — great news for Preakness winner Seize the Day.

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and his team should be happy, too, as the No. 3 post has won 16 times including last year's race. The No. 1 post last won in 2018.

Here's the full count of winners by post positions throughout the history of the Belmont Stakes:

MORE: Who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

Belmont Stakes winners by post position

All 13 gates have earned at least one victory at the Belmont Stakes since the race began using starting posts in 1904.

Gate 1 has the most winners and last won in 2018, while Gate 3 was the 2023 winner.

Below is a list of all of the winners at each gate since 1904:

Post 1 — 24 winners

Post 2 — 13 winners

Post 3 — 16 winners

Post 4 — 10 winners

Post 5 — 15 winners

Post 6 — 9 winners

Post 7 — 14 winners

Post 8 — 7 winners

Post 9 — 4 winners

Post 10 — 1 winner

Post 11 — 3 winners

Post 12 — 1 winner

Post 13 — 1 winner