Who will win the U.S. Open in 2023? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks & more to know

The U.S. Open is set to be played again, and once again, the event will highlight tensions between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf.

The event is set to begin just over a week after it was announced that the PGA Tour would be merging with the Saudi-backed Public Investment Fund (PIF), which backs LIV Golf. The move caught many PGA Tour golfers off-guard and eroded the trust between some players and tour commissioner Jay Monahan.

So, while there is going to be plenty of drama on the course during golf's third major, there will certainly be drama off the course as well. And that could distract even the best golfers in the world. That will make winning, in what is already an excellent field, all the more difficult.

The 2023 U.S. Open field contains within it plenty of amateurs and qualifiers looking to make a name for themselves, but it is also represented by most of the top players in the world. That includes World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, reigning Masters winner Jon Rahm, reigning PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka and last year's U.S. Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick.

MORE: Nick Taylor becomes first Canadian to win Canadian Open since 1954

But who among these top golfers should you bet to win the U.S. Open in 2023? Sporting News breaks down the latest tournament odds, best bets and sleepers to trust in this year's event:

U.S. Open odds 2023

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Scottie Scheffler (+700) is the favorite to win this year's U.S. Open, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. The No. 1 golfer in the world has put together a terrific season and has finished top-12 in all but one event. That was his first start of the season.

Scheffler is one of two golfers with 10-1 odds to take home the U.S. Open trophy along with Jon Rahm (+1000). Rahm has been a bit more volatile than Scheffler this year, but he won the Masters in April and has four total wins on the season. The duo should each be within striking distance of the leader on the final day at the very least.

Brooks Koepka (+1100) is expected to be the top LIV Golfer at the Los Angeles Country Club after winning the PGA Championship. He headlines a group of five golfers with better than 20-1 odds to win the title; the other four are Rory McIlroy (+1100), Patrick Cantlay (+1600), Viktor Hovland (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1800).

Meanwhile, living legend Phil Mickelson (+15000) is vying for his first U.S. Open championship. That would allow him to complete the career Grand Slam, so he can't be counted out for this event.

Below are the odds for the top golfers in this year's U.S. Open. Only competitors with odds of 100-1 or better odds to win the tournament are listed. Odds are subject to change as the tournament draws nearer.

U.S. Open course breakdown: Los Angeles Country Club

The U.S. Open is going to be played at the Los Angeles Country Club in California. The course was originally designed by Herbert Fowler and George C. Thomas Jr. but underwent a recent $60 million renovation, led by Gil Hanse, to prepare it to host the major.

This also marks the first time that the course — which is notoriously private — will host a major championship.

The Los Angeles Country Club will play to 7,423 yards and a Par 70 score for the 2023 U.S. Open. It features an atypically high number of Par 3 holes (five) but will see numerous long holes, including a 290-yard Par 3 hole.

Per usual, the rough at the U.S. Open is set to be thick and dangerous. That will put a premium on accuracy across narrow fairways and greens. As such, golf bettors will want to look to fairway hit percentage and greens in regulation percentage (GIR percentage) as key indicators of success.

However, players that are longer off the tee will be able to shorten the course a bit, so it won't be just about staying out of trouble at this year's major. That will make strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) and strokes gained on approach (SG:APP) important as well.

Of course, good scramblers will be better served to succeed on this course because they can make up for any mistakes more easily. The same can be said of players who fare well in terms of strokes gained around the green (SG:ARG).

And, as always, strokes gained putting (SG:Putting) will be the final factor in determining which tee-to-green maven might find the most success in finishing each hole. That often is the difference between winning and losing a major championship.

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U.S. Open expert picks

Below is a breakdown of the best candidates to consider betting on from this year's U.S. Open field. You can feel free to bet any as potential winners, but some make for better top-10 finish wagers or DFS value picks.

Meanwhile, some of the sleeper candidates will be high-quality plays in SuperDraft lineups. SuperDraft allows fantasy players to select any six golfers they want in their tournament lineup, but the longer shots to win the tournament come with multipliers that increase their total fantasy points scored.

MORE: Join SuperDraft now and enjoy a deposit match up to $100! Enter promo code “TSN” for a free $10 when you register

U.S. Open best bets to win tournament

Scottie Scheffler (+700) has the shortest odds to win the U.S. Open, and with good reason. He is the best tee-to-green player on the PGA Tour and figures to succeed in all the areas needed to fare well at the Los Angeles Country Club.

Scheffler ranks No. 1 in SG:OTT and SG:APP. He also is a top-10 scrambler and ranks sixth in SG:ARG, so even if he finds himself struggling, he will have the skill set needed to grind out some critical par saves and give himself a chance to compete. 

The only area in which Scheffler is a bit weak is his putting game. However, he has been able to get hot with the short stick at times, so if he can do that this weekend, it will be hard for many to shoot as low as him. So, even despite his short odds, he's worth betting to win this weekend.

Elsewhere, Brooks Koepka (+1100) looks like another good wager. Why? Well, he has a strong history at major events. He most recently won the 2023 PGA Championship, but he has three other major wins to his name. He also has finished top-10 at 14 of the last 22 major championships at which he has played.

Those stats make Koepka a rock-solid bet at 11-1 odds. And while some might prefer Jon Rahm (+1000), the Spaniard's below-average fairway hit percentage — he ranks 118th on the PGA Tour in that category — could hold him back at this event. As such, backing Koepka is preferrable to backing Rahm this week. 

U.S. Open value picks for top-10 finish, SuperDraft & DFS lineups

As always, there are a handful of strong-looking value picks for the third major tournament of the PGA Tour season. Xander Schauffle (+1800), Tyrell Hatton (+3300) and Tony Finau (+3300) stand out among the best mid-tier options.

Some will scoff at Schauffele being a value pick given his relatively short odds, but his game should suit this course well. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in SG:APP and ranks top-15 in scrambling and SG:Putting as well.

Schauffele also has a good history at majors, and the U.S. Open in particular. He has finished top-10 in five of his six appearances at the event and has never finished lower than 14th. So, provided that Schauffele can stay accurate off the tee, he should be in the running for his first major win.

As for Hatton, he is enjoying a great season and is currently in good form. He finished one stroke off the lead at the Canadian Open and has logged top-15 finishes in each of his last five events. That includes three top-five finishes. Add in that Hatton ranks top-20 in SG:OTT, SG:APP and SG:Putting and he should be able to use his skills to get to the top of the leaderboard once again.

Finau has identical odds to Hatton and has played a similar season to his English counterpart thus far. The only difference is that Finau has earned a couple of wins and is coming off back-to-back rocky finishes — a T-72nd at the PGA Championship and a missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Even still, Finau is powerful and accurate off the tee and ranks fifth in SG:APP on the PGA Tour. His tee-to-green game should make him a threat to win it all this week, so banking on his as a top-10 finisher or a DFS value pick would be a smart move.

U.S. Open sleeper picks

If you're looking for a decent LIV Golf sleeper to back, Patrick Reed (+7000) is a sensible choice. He has largely shown good form on the LIV circuit this year, logging two top-three finishes and under-par scores in five of seven tournaments.

More importantly, Reed tied for fourth at the Masters and 18th at the PGA Championship, so he has demonstrated good form on championship-level courses this season. He has one major title to his name, having won the 2018 Masters, and seven top-10 finishes at majors since that win in 2018, so he is fully capable of putting together a run at another major.

If you're looking for a deeper sleeper, Tom Kim (+10000) looks like a solid bet. The 20-year-old is young, but he has a top-10 approach game and ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in hit fairway percentage, so he should be good enough tee-to-green to factor into the equation at this major.

Of course, some will be scared off by Kim's recent form. He has missed consecutive cuts and has just one top-10 finish in his last 11 starts.

Even still, Kim came in 16th at the Masters, so he showed that he can compete on a major-level course. At 100-1 odds, it's worth seeing if he can get into the mix at the Los Angeles Country Club. If he can, he could position bettors to make out with a massive payday.

U.S. Open winners by year

Matt Fitzpatrick is the reigning winner of the U.S. Open. He shot 6 under par at the 2022 iteration of the event — held at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass. — to earn his first career major win over Will Zalatoris and Scottie Scheffler (both 5 under).

Fitzpatrick will now seek to become the 23rd player to win the U.S. Open multiple times since the event began in 1895. Only two players — Brooks Koepka (2017-18) and Curtis Strange (1988-89) — have ever won the event in consecutive years.

Speaking of Koepka, he will be looking to become the first player to win back-to-back majors since he did so at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open in 2018. Koepka has won four majors during his career and should give Fitzpatrick and other members of the stacked field a run for their money.

Tiger Woods has won the U.S. Open three times, which ranks as the most among active golfers. However, he isn't participating in the tournament this year after having ankle surgery following his appearance at the Masters. That makes Koepka the only active golfer in the field with multiple U.S. Open titles (two).

Below is a full list of the winners of the U.S. Open since it was first held in 1895.