Who will win the Masters in 2023? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks & more to know

Jacob Camenker

Who will win the Masters in 2023? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks & more to know image

Scottie Scheffler won the Masters in 2022, giving him his first-ever major championship and punctuating an elite start to his PGA Tour season.

Now, Scheffler will head back to Augusta National Golf Club to defend that title. He will do so against a field that may be smaller than most but contains a lot of star power.

Scheffler will be squaring off against many of the world's best golfers as he looks to become the first repeat champion of the Masters since Tiger Woods. Included in the 88-man field will be Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa, to name just a few.

MORE: Ranking the top 30 golfers in the 2023 Masters field, from Rory McIlroy to Tiger Woods

The Masters will be of particular interest to golf fans, as members of the PGA Tour will compete against several players from the Saudi-backed start-up LIV Golf. That means Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, among others, will be able to compete for the major title.

Bettors will be licking their chops staring at this stacked field, as it will create many value opportunities to bet. Per usual, there will be some under-the-radar sleepers who deserve consideration as well.

But who should you bet to win the Masters in 2023? Sporting News breaks down the latest tournament odds, best bets and sleepers to trust in this year's event.

MORE: Who is playing LIV Golf? Complete field for 2023

Masters Tournament odds 2023

Scottie Scheffler (+700) and Rory McIlroy (+700) enter the Masters as the co-favorites to win the event, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. This shouldn't come as a surprise, as Scheffler is the reigning Masters champion and is ranked No. 1 in the world while McIlroy earned a career-best second-place finish in 2022 as well.

World No. 3 Jon Rahm (+900) is the only other golfer with better than 10-1 odds to win the event. He has already won three events and earned seven top-10 finishes during the 2022-23 PGA Tour season while playing in nine events.

Jordan Spieth (+1800), Cameron Smith (+2000), Justin Thomas (+2000), and Patrick Cantlay (+2000) are among the other favorites to win the event. Smith has the best chance among the LIV Golfers in the field, possessing odds slightly shorter than those of Dustin Johnson (+2500).

Below are the odds for the top golfers in this year's Masters tournament. Only competitors with odds of 100-1 or better odds are listed.

Golfer Odds
Rory McIlroy +700
Scottie Scheffler +700
Jon Rahm +900
Jordan Spieth +1800
Cameron Smith +2000
Justin Thomas +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Dustin Johnson +2500
Jason Day +2500
Max Homa +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Cameron Young +3000
Brooks Koepka +3300
Sam Burns +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Viktor Hovland +3300
Will Zalatoris +3300
Corey Conners +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Shane Lowry +5000
Joaquin Niemann +6600
Min Woo Lee +6600
Patrick Reed +6600
Tiger Woods +6600
Tommy Fleetwood +6600
Justin Rose +6600
Tom Kim +8000
Louis Oosthuizen +9000
Abraham Ancer +10000
Adam Scott +10000
Bryson DeChambeau +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Keith Mitchell +10000
Mito Pereira +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Si Woo Kim +10000
Tom Hoge +10000

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Masters course breakdown: Augusta National Golf Club

As always, the Masters will be played at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Ga. The course — a par-72 layout that is 7,510 yards in length — is one of the longest on the PGA Tour; it contains four par-5 holes and three par-4 holes that are at least 495 yards in length.

Because of this, the bigger hitters will find the most success at Augusta. That will make it important for bettors to trust those that produce the most strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT), as those golfers will often set themselves up for shorter and easier approach shots.

Strokes gained approaching the green (SG:APR) will also carry significant importance for the Masters. Why? Because it is fairly easy to putt at Augusta, so long as you can remain inside 10 feet, per Mark Broadie of Golf.com. Augusta is known for having the highest three-putt rate of any PGA Tour course, so it will be important for golfers to minimize the distance of putts they have to make during the event.

Given the higher rate of three-putts at Augusta National, bettors will also want to pay attention to which players can avoid three-putts most easily. It also will be important to track which players have the highest success rate converting putts within 10 feet of the hole.

Finally, it will also pay to know which golfers have the highest greens in regulation (GIR) percentage. Those who hit the green at a high rate will avoid scrambling and having to take tough chip shots onto Augusta's unforgiving greens. That will make it easier to convert pars and birdies, especially if the player grades well as a putter.

Max Homa-071222-GETTY-FTR
(Getty Images)

Masters expert picks

Below is a breakdown of the best candidates to consider betting in this year's Masters field. You can feel free to bet them all as winners, but some are better options on betting cards as top-10 finishers, sleepers, or DFS value picks.

To get more expert analysis, picks, and predictions, check out BetQL's Masters betting preview

Masters best bets to win tournament

World No. 3 golfer Jon Rahm (+900) is probably the best bet among the favorites to win the tournament. He has put together a terrific season on the PGA Tour to date, and his approach game is among the best on tour.

Rahm ranks top five in both SG:APR and GIR percentage, so he should be able to hit the second shots necessary to put himself in advantageous positions on the green. Add in that he is an above average putter and ranks 28th in SG:OTT and he looks like a safe bet to compete for the title.

Rory McIlroy (+700) isn't a bad bet either. He ranks top-10 in both SG:OTT and SG:APR, so he should be one of the best tee-to-green players in the field this week. He can be erratic at times, which is why his GIR percentage ranks at a below-average 140th on tour, but his ability to crush first and second shots should be more of a help than a hindrance this week, so long as he isn't too inaccurate.

As for the other co-favorite, Scottie Scheffler (+700), he also qualifies as a decent bet. He ranks No. 1 on tour in SG:OTT and GIR percentage, so he should have a good chance to land balls close to the hole, just as he did en route to a Masters win in 2022.

That said, Scheffler has two things working against him in this tournament. First, he ranks just 136th on tour in putting inside of 10 feet, so his short stick could cause him some trouble this week.

Second, no player has won back-to-back Masters tournaments since Tiger Woods in the 2000 and 2001 iterations of the event. Scheffler has the talent needed to do that, but certainly, betting on him doesn't look as appetizing as betting on Rahm or McIlroy.

Masters value picks for top-10 finish, DFS lineups

You'll be hard-pressed to find better value picks than Patrick Cantlay (+2000) and Max Homa (+2500) as the Masters winners. Both carry better than 20-1 odds to take home the green jacket, but each has been among the best golfers in the world in 2023.

Cantlay looks like a particularly solid play, as he is second-best in SG:OTT behind only Scheffler and also ranks top-five in GIR percentage. As such, he should be one of the best tee-to-green players this week.

Additionally, Cantlay ranks 20th in putting from inside of 10 feet and 41st in SG:APR. The latter mark may not be as strong as some of the other contenders on tour, but it is still well above average. As such, there is no real weakness in his game — save for his spotty performance in previous major championships.

As for Homa, he can be a bit lacking off the tee at times — he ranks just 54th in SG:OTT — but in all of the other major statistical categories we are watching, he ranks at least 37th or better. That includes a high-water mark of third-best in SG:APR, which should help him set up easy putting opportunities on Augusta's tricky greens.

Cantlay and Homa certainly have the skills needed to win the Masters, so they can be trusted as value plays for adventurous bettors. At the very least, others can look to them as top-10 finish bets and solid DFS lineup anchors.

Masters sleeper picks

It's hard to find a more intriguing sleeper pick than Tom Kim (+8000). The South Korean golfer, who affectionately goes by "Tom" as an homage to Thomas the Tank Engine, is playing in his first Masters, but his game profiles well for the Augusta National course. He ranks top-20 in both SG:APR and GIR percentage, so he should be able to hit the all-important second shot well.

Kim is also solid off the tee — he ranks 58th in SG:OTT — and has consistently fared well since joining the PGA Tour in 2022. His rank of 77th in putting inside of 10 feet leaves a bit to be desired, but that shouldn't prevent him from potentially competing for a top-10 spot at Augusta.

If you're not a fan of trusting a first-time Masters performer, Tom Hoge (+10000) is a good alternative. The veteran Hoge ranks No. 1 in SG:APR so far this season and has a top-50 mark in three-putt avoidance. He is merely average off the tee (119th in SG:OTT) but Hoge's T-39 at last year's Masters and top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and The Players' Championship over the last year are reason enough to back him.

Finally, if you're looking for a deep, value sleeper, look no further than Sepp Straka (+25000). Straka is a below-average hitter off the tee, but his approach game and putting are both strong. He ranks 18th in both SG:APR and GIR percentage and is the 11th-best player at putting inside of 10 feet on the PGA Tour this season.

Straka may have to hit a bit better off the tee than usual to win the Masters, but don't be surprised to see him post a top-20 finish. Either way, at 250-1 odds, he could be worth a flier; and at the very least, a top-10 bet on him could prove to be a lucrative investment for those that believe in work approaching and on the green.

MORE: Why LIV Golf players might surround the 18th hole at the 2023 Masters

Masters Tournament winners by year

Scottie Scheffler is the reigning Masters champion, having won the event by three strokes over Rory McIlroy in 2022. It was Scheffler's first and only major win to date, and he will seek to become the first back-to-back winner of the event since Tiger Woods in 2000 and 2001.

Jack Nicklaus is the all-time leader in Masters wins, as the Golden Bear won the event six times during his illustrious career. His first win came in 1963 and his last was in 1986.

That said, Woods isn't far behind him, as he has won the major five times. His first came during the 1997 Masters, his third appearance at the event, and his most recent win was his shocking 2019 victory at Augusta.

Below is a look at every Masters winner since the event began in 1934.

Year Winner Score
2022 Scottie Scheffler -10
2021 Hideki Matsuyama -10
2020 Dustin Johnson -20
2019 Tiger Woods -13
2018 Patrick Reed -15
2017 Sergio Garcia -9
2016 Danny Willett -5
2015 Jordan Spieth -18
2014 Bubba Watson -8
2013 Adam Scott -9
2012 Bubba Watson -10
2011 Charl Schwartzel -14
2010 Phil Mickelson -16
2009 Angel Cabrera -12
2008 Trevor Immelman -8
2007 Zach Johnson +1
2006 Phil Mickelson -7
2005 Tiger Woods -12
2004 Phil Mickelson -9
2003 Mike Weir -7
2002 Tiger Woods -12
2001 Tiger Woods -16
2000 Vijay Singh -10
1999 José María Olazábal -8
1998 Mark O'Meara -9
1997 Tiger Woods -18
1996 Nick Faldo -12
1995 Ben Crenshaw -14
1994 José María Olazábal -9
1993 Bernhard Langer -11
1992 Fred Couples -13
1991 Ian Woosnam -11
1990 Nick Faldo -10
1989 Nick Faldo -5
1988 Sandy Lyle -7
1987 Larry Mize -3
1986 Jack Nicklaus -9
1985 Bernhard Langer -6
1984 Ben Crenshaw -11
1983 Seve Ballesteros -8
1982 Craig Stadler -4
1981 Tom Watson -8
1980 Seve Ballesteros -13
1979 Fuzzy Zoeller -8
1978 Gary Player -11
1977 Tom Watson -12
1976 Raymond Floyd -17
1975 Jack Nicklaus -12
1974 Gary Player -10
1973 Tommy Aaron -5
1972 Jack Nicklaus -2
1971 Charles Coody -9
1970 Billy Casper -9
1969 George Archer -7
1968 Bob Goalby -11
1967 Gay Brewer -8
1966 Jack Nicklaus E
1965 Jack Nicklaus -17
1964 Arnold Palmer -12
1963 Jack Nicklaus -2
1962 Arnold Palmer -8
1961 Gary Player -8
1960 Arnold Palmer -6
1959 Art Wall Jr. -4
1958 Arnold Palmer -4
1957 Doug Ford -5
1956 Jack Burke Jr. +1
1955 Cary Middlecoff -9
1954 Sam Snead +1
1953 Ben Hogan -14
1952 Sam Snead -2
1951 Ben Hogan -8
1950 Jimmy Demaret -5
1949 Sam Snead -6
1948 Claude Harmon -9
1947 Jimmy Demaret -7
1946 Herman Keiser -6
1942 Byron Nelson -8
1941 Craig Wood -8
1940 Jimmy Demaret -8
1939 Ralph Guldahl -9
1938 Henry Picard -3
1937 Byron Nelson -5
1936 Horton Smith -3
1935 Gene Sarazen -6
1934 Horton Smith -4

Jacob Camenker

Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker first joined The Sporting News as a fantasy football intern in 2018 after his graduation from UMass. He became a full-time employee with TSN in 2021 and now serves as a senior content producer with a particular focus on the NFL. Jacob worked at NBC Sports Boston as a content producer from 2019 to 2021. He is an avid fan of the NFL Draft and ranked 10th in FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Accuracy metric in both 2021 and 2022.