LPGA CPKC Women’s Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

The Dana Open came down to the final two par 5s. Chanettee Wannasaen took home the title at 20 under par, her second LPGA win. With Toledo in the rearview mirror, we head to another national Championship — the CPKC Women's Open, Canada's championship.

Taking place at the Earl Grey Golf Club in Calgary, Alberta this year, the 156-player CPKC Open field features 11 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings. Reigning champion Megan Khang will be ready to defend her title and compete for $2.6 million. She captured her first career victory at this tournament last summer at the Shaughnessy Golf and Country Club. It was our 12th RTL win of the season!

The Canadian Women's Open is celebrating its 50th Anniversary. For their golden celebration, they have chosen an amazing venue in the southern suburbs of Calgary. Earl Grey Golf Club has not hosted the CPKC before in any of the prior 49 editions. One look at this landscape and you'll see why this setting should have been chosen sooner.

Founded in 1919, the club has 18 championship holes and a fun short course routing. Set alongside the Elbow River, EGGC boasts 12 elbows (or doglegs) of its own. The parkland layout is a par-72 course covering 6,856 yards. The scorecard has a traditional allotment of four par 3s and 5s along with ten par 4s.

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the 3M Open and the CPKC Women's Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

CPKC Women's Open expert picks and predictions

Best bet to WIN: Lauren Coughlin (+4000 on FanDuel)

When I look down the odds list, Coughlin really sticks out to me. Coughlin finished 24th at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship last month just outside of Seattle. She followed that up with a fourth-place finish at the Amundi Evian Championship. Both courses are difficult parkland layouts and she excelled in those events. Coughlin has nine top-25 results in 2024 and has really reached another level. She's a consistent contender, and this is the style of course she will win on. An excellent T2G player and putter, it is just a matter of time before her game grabs that first LPGA win. 

Best bet to place: Mao Saigo to finish Top 10 (+300 on bet365)

Saigo won six times over the past two years on the Japan LPGA. A 2024 LPGA rookie by title only, Saigo already has three top 10s this year. Seventh at the KPMG, she has all of the skills needed to contend in Calgary. Top 20 a week ago on another parkland design in Ohio, Saigo’s incredible iron play gets the job done. Her proximity to the hole has led to a top-10 scoring average on tour. She grabs another top 10 for us this week in Canada.

Best head-to-head prop: Lydia Ko over Sei Young Kim (-110 on bet365)

This happens all the time when you are betting the LPGA. Sei Young Kim is playing through an injury. Since her WD from the U.S. Open, Kim has posted four tournament rounds. Her scoring average over those two missed cuts is 75.5. Meanwhile, Lydia Ko has made the cut in all three starts since the U.S. Open. Take Ko over Kim and get paid on Friday after the cut. 

CPKC Women's Open live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.  

CPKC Women's Open: Conditions, winning trends

Professional golfers are a funny breed. Since missing four straight cuts and then announcing her retirement to the golfing world, Lexi Thompson has finished second, ninth, eighth, and then 19th last week at the Dana Open. Take a little pressure off, and great players can just play. I highly doubt she will change her mind, but it's an interesting pattern to watch.

Does Lexi's game fit Earl Grey, the way she is currently playing? Most would say yes. The picturesque parkland layout has a varying terrain with wonderful tree-lined fairways. My first featured skill of the week is off the tee play. Remember strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) favors longer, straighter hitters. With 12 doglegs and 17 fairway bunkers, the best drivers with ball speed have a serious advantage.

These greens are big by average LPGA tour standards. So GIR accuracy isn't going to be enough for us to determine our outright card. Look closer at proximity to the hole this week. Who hits it closer? I take a general look every week at proximity, but most weeks the greens are so small that GIR numbers can shape the story. On weeks with greens like this, we research more. The approach narrative also involves two very specific skill sets. The first is from under 100 yards. One-third of the approaches will be from very close range. Wedge play tends to be a bit of a weakness for better players, so it's very helpful to separate our leans.

The second approach skill is from long range. Another reason why length is very important off the tee, 56% of approaches are coming in from over 150 yards (eight out of 18). This means the field will be employing plenty of mid-irons and hybrids. Much like the men, lengthy approach play really differentiates the field. In comparison to the men, it separates the ladies even more. Roughly 25% of the LPGA has the power to hit long approaches properly. Most launch them lower due to a lack of ball speed. Players like Nelly, Lexi, etc. have the ability to launch it much higher and land it closer. It's why they contend all the time quite honestly.

Big greens bring on three-putt concerns. We are definitely eliminating the poor putters. I took a combination of strokes gained putting and putts per GIR in this analysis. Players who have a lower putts per GIR do not three putt! With limited data available on the LPGA, the KPMG numbers I receive every week are still very helpful if you understand them. I believe this will be a mid-scoring affair and as such we will need a healthy balance of BoB% over bogey avoidance. Along those lines, I'm going to compare around the green acumen with scrambling skill. Four par 5s and two very short par 4s give us six very good scrambling opportunities. Scrambling shots help players score from 75 yards and in.

To round out the card, I want elite par-4 scoring. Seven of the 10 par 4s are over 400 yards. Eleven and 12 back-to-back are both over 400 yards and have water guarding the green. The stretch of holes from 10 to 13 presents four very difficult par-4 tests. Starting on the back nine will be more challenging than the front. Be ready to go on the 10th tee, because a slow start will stifle your chances. Those are my keys for the betting narrative this week. We were on point last week as three outrights were in the mix for three rounds. A poor Sunday pushed us to Canada, but there's little doubt after our success up north a year ago we can win again!

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CPKC Women's Open course overview: Earl Grey Golf Club

If you are familiar with Earl Grey Golf Club and have played there, the routing you are used to will be quite different for the championship. It seems the tournament officials have changed the course order significantly to create a better eighteenth hole setting.

Here's the breakdown for the championship routing,  with the actual hole numbers are in parenthesis:

• Front nine: 1 (11), 2 (12), 3 (13), 4 (14), 5 (15), 6 (16), 7 (5), 8 (6), 9 (7)
• Back nine: 10 (2), 11 (3), 12 (4), 13 (17), 14 (18), 15 (1), 16 (8), 17 (9), 18 (10)

The 35-37 layout features the Elbow River holes to start with the opening tee shot and again to close the front nine. The sixteenth hole will feature the river views one last time as the competitors close out their rounds. Earl Grey has the fourth largest greens on tour to date (6,100 sq/ft). They are covered in Poa annua and Bentgrass. A perfect northern blend to putt on. Sixty-seven bunkers, tree lined fairways, and five holes with water in play all add to the challenge of making the top 65 and ties to play the weekend. The course was renovated in 2018, and well prepared to host this championship.

Speaking of preparedness, these women just traveled 1,800 miles north and west to Canada. Thankfully, the weather forecast looks great again this week. Temperatures are predicted in the low 80s with no rain. A little wind is expected on Thursday and Friday blowing in the low teens, but overall these women have another incredible forecast for golf. In the last month, the LPGA has played in two majors and traveled halfway around the world. Next week the tour heads to Portland, while the women who qualified for the Olympics go BACK to France. Yes, they were just in Europe eight days ago... This schedule is wild, and without a strong field in Canada let's use our industry best LPGA knowledge to win the CPKC again.

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